ATP Cincinnati Preview

CINCINNATI: NEWS & NOTES

*Gonzalez-Molteni were a surprise winner in Cincy last year. The unseeded pair took the title match over fellow unseeded duo Venus-Murray 3-6, 6-1, 11-9 as 2.53 (+153) underdogs. It was the first dog score in the finale since 2019 when Dodig-Polasek won the trophies. That was also the last year that an unseeded pair won the titles.

*The dog win by Gonzalez-Molteni was the 12th in 2023 out of 27 matches. The majority of the dog hits came in round two, where seven of the eight matches saw dogs score the win. Two of those hit above 3.00 (+200), half of the the total four dog hits above the 3.00 mark. The largest score came at 3.25 (+225) in round one. 2023 marked the third straight run in Cincy where double digit dogs won a match.

*With seeds missing out on the final in 2023, you look early and see where five of them fell in their opening match. That included three of the top four seeds. In 2022, there were three seeded upsets early with one of those belonging to a top four seed. And in 2021, three more seeds went one and done with the top seed amongst the casualties. You have to travel back to 2017 for the last time that at least one top four seed didn’t drop their first match. I’ll focus more on that trend in the ONE and DONE section below.

*With seeds consistently struggling early here, unseeded pairs have taken full advantage to make deep runs. Last year, we had the two unseeded finalists, part of six unseeded duos that made it to the quarterfinals. In 2022, half of the quarterfinal field was unseeded with two of those advancing to the semifinals. 2021 had five unseeded pairs in the quarterfinals and again made up half of the semifinals field. 2018 was the last year that there were less than two unseeded pairs in the semifinals and 2016 was the last time that all seeds made up the semifinal match-ups.

*Super tie breaks were plentiful in 2023 with 14 of the 27 matches needing the extra frame to settle the match. Six of those came in round one with four more in the second round. There have been at least ten STBs needed in the last six runs of Cincinnati dating back to 2017. In the last two runs, rounds one and two seem to be the place to focus more on seeing these finishes. In 2023, 11 of the 20 matches from rounds one and two went to a super tie break with 2022 seeing nine in those two rounds. Round two has been especially heavy with STBs with ten of the last 16 falling that way.

SINGLES MINGLE

Cincinnati draws a lot of singles pairs for the week with seven of the 28 pairings being made up of singles players who are participating in both main draws this week. Here’s a look at a few of the more intriguing ones in my eyes.

Korda-Shelton
These two played once in 2023 in qualifying at Queen’s Club losing in straight sets. Korda has been an under-the-radar performer in doubles in 2024 with an 11-8 overall record. His best run of course was winning in Madrid with Jordan Thompson. He paired with Griekspoor last week, but they didn’t click in a 6-2, 6-2 loss to Gonzalez/Roger-Vasselin. Shelton has also played plenty of doubles (10-10) with a win last week in Montreal alongside Bublik. My worry here is that Korda’s delayed play in Montreal that will see him with a quick turnaround could potentially lead to a withdrawal early for this pair. If they do play, they could be an interesting foe for Venus-Skupski in round one.

McDonald-Michelsen/Rune-Tsitsipas
Four singles players involved in one opening round match. If singles stars are supposed to draw big crowds, you’d expect this one with Rune and Tsitsipas in particular sporting big followings. They’re a danger here as they made it to the semifinals two years ago at this tournament. That was the only one they’ve played together, beating Mektic-Pavic and Arevalo-Rojer before withdrawing in the semis. McDonald-Michelsen looked adequate playing Newport together, scoring a win before dropping their quarterfinal against eventual champs Goransson-Verbeek. This one could be very competitive, but the survivors may not go much farther with a potentially tough round two waiting.

Lehecka-Ruud
This COULD be a pair to watch, but will Ruud be at full strength? He withdraw late in Montreal due to illness, so it’s a fair question to want to see answered. Ruud helped craft an upset win with Kecmanovic as his partner in Montreal. They beat defending Cincy champs Gonzalez-Molteni in round one. Ruud has won his last three doubles matches. Lehecka is 0-3 in limited doubles action in 2024, but two of those losses did go the distance. If Ruud is healthy enough, I’m intrigued to see them against Koolhof-Mektic, who will be back together for the first time since Wimbledon. It could be a spot where they struggle.

Fils-Jarry
I didn’t expect much out of this duo last week in Montreal. but they forced Nys-Zielinski to a super tie break in round one. Nys-Zielinski made it to the semifinals. The usually quick conditions in Cincinnati could aid this pair’s bid for a win this week, especially with Jarry’s often dominant serve. They get Gille-Vliegen who have struggled for wins of late and have gone only 5-8 on hard courts this season. If they don’t get the straight up win, I’d at least expect a super tie break.

Khachanov-Rublev
I touched on their struggles on hard courts and it played out with an opening loss in Montreal to Glasspool-Mektic that was fairly straight forward. The Russians have played plenty together. Chemistry isn’t the problem, but hard courts have been a struggle with a 19-20 mark on the surface. Their best has been clay (16-9). I do think the conditions play better for them here and it will be their second run in Cincy with a 1-1 mark back in 2021. Playing a pair in Dodig-Murray in round one that has rarely played together should give them a better shot at a win this week (I think).

SEEDS: ONE AND DONE WATCH (First Match Upset Watch)

(1)Granollers-Zeballos
They didn’t have any issues getting past a tough opener in Montreal, but it’s a new week and the stacked field means another tough opponent to start. They get the winner between defending champs Gonzalez-Molteni and Nys-Zielinski. They’re 2-0 against Nys-Zielinski with both coming on clay and only one being tight, the match in Madrid (16-14 STB) that cemented them into the number one spots in the rankings. The only time they’ve played Gonzalez-Molteni was at the Tour Finals in 2023, beating them in straights. Maybe it won’t be an issue again, but they did lose their opener in Cincy in 2023.

(3)Ram-Salisbury
It’s going to be a fairly quick turnaround for the three seeds who are playing in the Montreal final on Monday against Granollers-Zeballos. That’s the good news, they got hot last week. The bad news is they could see Krawietz-Puetz off the bye in round two. The Germans have to get past Cerundolo-Etcheverry first however and that may not be easy as they’ve split two matches in 2024. Should they get through however, they did beat Ram-Salisbury in Miami early in the season and will pose a sizeable threat.

(4)Arevalo-Pavic
They transitioned well to hard courts with a semifinal showing in Montreal, but they’ll be victims of another tough draw. It’s Melo-Zverev or Lammons-Withrow. Melo-Zverev beat Arevalo-Pavic in Monte-Carlo and while Lammons-Withrow may rely too much on serve at times, the Americans have been winning lately on the surface with a 7-1 mark on this swing. I think either one is a harsh opponent to start a tournament.

DRAW PREVIEW

TOP HALF

Quarter #1
The seeds here have both had good success in Cincinnati. Granollers-Zeballos are the top seeds and winners here in 2021. Gonzalez-ERV are the seeds on the opposite side and maybe a bit surprisingly, they have made the semifinals in 2022 and 2023. Granollers-Zeballos certainly have the tougher early draw in my estimation with 2023 champs Gonzalez-Molteni or Nys-Zielinski first up. Gonzalez-Molteni are 3-0 in the head-to-head, but two of those did go to a super tie break finish. That includes the most recent one in Barcelona. Seven of Nys-Zielinksi’s last nine completed matches have needed a super tie break, so perhaps that’s the one thing to bank on in round one. Gonzalez-Molteni have lost their last four on hard courts dating back to this year’s Australian Open quarterfinals, so I’d have to give Nys-Zielinski a decent shot to score the win this time.

In the bottom half, Gonzalez-ERV face off against first time pair Glasspool-Humbert. That should give the seeds a leg up. While they’ve struggled to a 7-8 mark since returning to a regular pairing this year, they have only lost their opener twice in eight tournaments. The intrigue is in the other round one match in this quadrant with Venus-Skupski against Korda-Shelton. I outlined my thoughts on Korda-Shelton earlier in the SINGLES MINGLE section. As for Venus-Skupski, they split a pair of matches in Montreal last week. The loss was to Arevalo-Pavic, so nothing wrong with that one. This is a week where we see if they can continue the kind of form we saw from them on grass (12-3). They’ll need to be ready in round one if Korda remains in the doubles draw as that pair in quick conditions will be tough. If they escape round one, they may well take advantage of Gonzalez-ERV despite that pair’s past success on these courts.

It’s hard to go against Granollers-Zeballos in their current form. While there are some tough potential matches in their path to a semifinal or further, you have to like what they showed with big wins over top four teams in Bolelli-Vavassori and Arevalo-Pavic last week. The only caveat in picking them is figuring out how they’ll respond from the Monday finish in Montreal. Having an opening round bye will definitely aid in the transition. I’d give Venus-Skupski the nod as the unseeded danger duo to watch out for in this part of the draw. Frankly, I’d be surprised if Gonzalez-Molteni made any sort of surprise run this year. They arrived with better form in 2023.

Quarter #2
It’s Ram-Salisbury and Purcell-Thompson as the seeds. Ram-Salisbury, like Granollers-Zeballos, will have to deal with travel from Canada to Cincinnati off the Monday final in Montreal. They do have a potentially tough landing spot as well with Krawietz-Puetz or Cerundolo-Etcheverry. Cerundolo-Etcheverry have played the Germans tough two times this year, losing on hard in a super tie break and then beating them on clay in a super tie break. The plus for Krawietz-Puetz is that the singles pair has never won on hard (0-6). Ram-Salisbury won the titles in Cincinnati back in 2022, but they also got knocked off last year in their opener. I expect them to walk the tight rope in their opener off the bye and certainly depending on the result in Montreal, they could fall short.

In the bottom section with Purcell-Thompson, the Aussies face the former Ohio State teammates in Cash-Tracy. You may remember them from their unexpected run to the Newport final in July. They come in off a Challenger title in Lincoln, but this will be the toughest team they’ve faced as pros. Purcell-Thompson are a stout 30-6 this season and 13-4 on hard courts. Generally speaking, their losses have been to the top tier teams and they take care of business against most others. The winners get one of two singles pairs with Rune-Tsitsipas and McDonald-Michelsen squaring of in round one. I mentioned that Rune-Tsitsipas have a nice history in Cincinnati in their lone team-up with a semifinal run. Rune generally plays few doubles matches (2-2) while Tsitsipas is on the doubles court more often. One thing that sticks out with Rune’s history in doubles is that he’s rarely been in matches where his team is blown out. Expect a competitive battle in round one and Rune-Tsitsipas lurk as the bigger danger I think to a team like Purcell-Thompson in this part of the draw.

Ram-Salisbury’s stay in Cincinnati may well depend on who they face early on. I think they’d much rather face Cerundolo-Etcheverry, even though them winning in round one would mean they could be a bigger threat than expected. It’s not often that teams have back-to-back good runs in this back-to-back set up from Canada to Cincinnati. When Ram-Salisbury won here in 2022, they had dropped their opener in Montreal. And when Gonzalez-Molteni won here a year ago, they had lost their opener in Toronto. I won’t be surprised with a mild surprise with an unseeded pair winning in this quarter with Krawietz-Puetz always a threat and the survivor from the Rune-Tsitsipas/McDonald-Michelsen match could be a real dark horse.

BOTTOM HALF

Quarter #3
(4)Arevalo-Pavic roll into Cincy off a decent week in Montreal that saw them make the semifinals. Their finish was a big flat with Granollers-Zeballos dominating the super tie break against them to secure the win, but overall, I think they’ll be happy with the wins after they struggled on this surface in the Spring. It’s not a great set up for them with Melo-Zverev and Lammons-Withrow both capable of springing the upset in round two. Melo-Zverev made the quarters here in 2023. One thing to note is that their last four matches have gone to super tie breaks. Lammons-Withrow lost their Cincy debut last year in a super tie break and have also played STBs in four of their eight matches during this Summer hard court swing. I mentioned that Melo-Zverev already have a win over Arevalo-Pavic, so that’s the bigger threat for me. I do think Lammons-Withrow can contend, especially with the conditions in Cincinnati usually playing fast, but I’d favor Melo-Zverev with a better shot to upset the seeds.

In the other half, it’s good to see that Heliovaara-Patten are scheduled to go this week. The two suffered a freak accident on court in Montreal last week when they clashed heads going for a ball. That led to a retirement with both feeling concussion-like symptoms. They should like their draw in this section despite their somewhat shaky start on this swing with a split of matches in Washington and then last week’s retirement loss in Montreal. They get Nakashima and inexperienced William Woodall in round one. These are former college teammates again (Virginia), so that’s an interesting twist. I’d still expect Heliovaara-Patten to prevail if they’re feeling fully fit. Round two looks winnable as well with Koolhof-Mektic the regular doubles pair, but one that has struggled some in the last few months. They were 13-4 on hard courts in the Spring, so perhaps the surfaces switch helps. I do think Lehecka-Ruud could be a tricky opener though, so keep eyes on that one.

This is another quarter where unseeded danger duos could have a big say in who makes the semifinals. The winner of that Melo-Zverev/Lammons-Withrow match could be the big one to watch. Melo-Zverev would be my pick as the ones with a better shot. I’m also interested to see if Koolhof-Mektic can flip a switch and find success again after the clay and grass swings saw them with some inconsistent results. I do expect that Arevalo-Pavic could make the semis again though if they can get through that difficult opener. That’s the big question for me in this section. Heliovaara-Patten I think rank as outsiders so far on this surface until they can prove otherwise, especially coming off last week’s accident.

Quarter #4
The final section sees Bopanna-Ebden and Bolelli-Vavassori on opposite sides of the quarter. Bopanna-Ebden had a tough draw to hit the ground in Montreal last week and subsequently lost their opener against Nys-Zielinski. They’ve been on the struggle bus of late without consecutive wins since their semifinal run at the French Open. It’s their second time to play here and they’ll be looking for win #1 after dropping their opener in 2023. That may not be simple, but I think they’ll like the prospects of facing Gille-Vliegen or Fils-Jarry. The Belgians did beat them at Indian Wells before Bopanna-Ebden took them out in three sets at the French Open. It’ll still likely be a tight match regardless as they tend play them that way in tournament openers. I already talked up Fils-Jarry as ones to watch against Gille-Vliegen in Monday’s play with Gille-Vliegen winless in two career matches in Cincinnati.

Bolelli-Vavassori got some needed wins in Montreal last week before being beaten by Granollers-Zeballos in the semifinals. The wins helped break a streak of two straight losses where they fell in openers at Wimbledon and the Olympics. They get Krajicek-Rojer, a first time mish mash pairing for the week. Obviously both have great doubles skills, but how they’ll fare together is another question. Edge to the Italians as a result. The other match in this half could see Khachanov-Rublev score a rare doubles win on hard courts. The Russian pair last won on this surface in Doha. They did split their first four matches on the surface this season, but have dropped their last two and have lost three of four overall. Getting a one-off pair in Dodig-Murray could help, but again we don’t know a ton about how that pair will play together. They do have a little experience, but it was back in 2021 and on clay. I give Bolelli-Vavassori the nod here, but Khachanov-Rublev could be tough if this surface plays like usual.

This feels like a spot where Bopanna-Ebden MIGHT be able to get untracked from a lull in their season. They’ve got two wins over Bolell-Vavassori on this surface in 2024 and while there are some intriguing pairs sprinkled in here, the Australian Open champs have been a solid hard court team. If an unseeded pair jumps out of this section, it could be one of the one-off pairs in Krajicek-Rojer or Dodig-Murray.

THE PIG’S DRAW PROJECTION

Q1 QF: (1)Granollers-Zeballos vs Skupski-Venus
Q2 QF: Krawietz-Puetz vs Rune-Tsitsipas
Q3 QF: Koolhof-Mektic vs (4)Arevalo-Pavic
Q4 QF: (5)Bolelli-Vavassori vs (2)Bopanna-Ebden

PIGPIX

Bopanna-Ebden
Krawietz-Puetz