WTA Toronto Preview

TORONTO: NEWS & NOTES

*The WTA stop in Canada this time around is Toronto after the 2023 version of the National Bank Open took place in Montreal. Aoyoma-Shibahara squeaked out the win in the title match as 2.32 (+132) underdogs 6-4, 4-6, 13-11 over Krawczyk-Schuurs. That was the first true dog score in the finale since 2018 when Barty-Schuurs took the titles at 2.60 (+160). The super tie break finish was the second in the last three Canadian finals.

*It’s been a little over a decade now since an unseeded pair won the titles at this event. 2013 was the last time that happened when Jelena Jankovic and Katarina Srebotnik did the deed. Since then, only two unseeded pairs have made the final. Unseeded duos have made it to the semifinals fairly frequently in that span however with five of the last 12 spots in the final four going to non-seeded teams. 2019 in Toronto was the last time that all seeds made the semifinals. Even then, there were at least two unseeded pairs in the quarterfinals. 2005 was the last time that there were less than two unseeded teams in the last eight.

*Seeds lost twice in their openers in 2023. One of those being a top four seed (3). That made it three straight runs in Canada that at least one top four seed lost their opener at this tournament. Those recent dog scores against top four seeds came at 7.48 (+648), 4.21 (+321), 4.12 (+312) and 2.99 (+199). Those were all in round two with the top four seeds coming off of byes in round one. 2019 was the last time that all seeds passed their opening test, so it looks like it’s fair to expect a few upsets early on with this event.

*Underdogs accounted for seven wins in 2023 out of 25 completed matches. The first round featured two huge hits at 4.12 (+312) and 5.05 (+405) with one of those being a seeded upset. There were eight underdog wins in 2022, the last time the National Bank Open hit Toronto. 2021 also saw eight dogs getting scalps. There’s no set trend on rounds that appear to find these scores more than others.

*Super tie breaks were a big part of the 2023 version with 14 of the 25 matches needing the extra frame to settle the score. Nearly half of those (6) came in round one with round two seeing five more. The total was up from eleven STB finishes in 2022 and just six in 2021.

*Like the men in Montreal, there are quite a few one-off pairings for the week due to the schedule coming off the Olympics and players who particpated in Paris. Amongst the top four seeds, you see one right away with Elise Mertens not paired with Su-wei Hsieh this week. Instead, she’s teaming with Asia Muhammad for the first time. Another interesting one is Pegular pairing with Olmos this week with Gauff focusing on singles this week.

Other seeds with the switcheroos this week include:

(6)Eikeri-Perez
(8)Bucsa-Xu

SEEDS: ONE AND DONE WATCH (First Match Upset Watch)

(2)Kichenok-Ostapenko
While they have largely avoiding early defeats with only two the entire season, they did both come on hard courts. Their opener also won’t be easy against one of two duos who come in off good stretches in Washington this past week. Jiang-Wu beat Kato-Sutjiadi in the semis last week, so can they do it again? They played well in getting to the Washington final in their first tournament together, but I think both of those pairs pose a risk to the seeds who will come off the bye in round two.

(3)Dolehide-Krawczyk
While this regular pairing should have the edge over Aoyoma-Hozumi, who have not paired since 2022, I do question how quick a start they get on the surface switch. Dolehide-Krawczyk finished with a flurry on grass at Wimbledon with a semifinal, but they lost their opener in each of the two prep tournaments. When the surface switched off hard in the Spring to clay, they lost their opener in Charleston to Hozumi-Ninomiya. They also dropped their openers in two of their last three hard court tournaments. Aoyama-Hozumi own a 15-4 record together over their careers, so the chemistry is real. They could be a sneaky look in round one.

(4)Mertens-Muhammad
On paper, this team looks like they could work well together, but we have never seen them in action. That’s why I’m putting them on this list as a top four seed with the history of one losing early in recent times. For me, the team that could give them fits in their opener is an intriguing pair in Mladenovic-Zhang. That duo played four times last year, all on clay, with a 2-2 record. With the one-off pairs like the four seeds, getting them early is the time where you’d think an upset is possible.

(6)Eikeri-Perez
These two did play one tournament together back in 2021 and it was a success with them taking the titles in Tenerife. They face a young Canadian pair though who could be interesting on home soil in Arsenault-Kupres. They recently won the Granby titles at the ITF level, another Canadian-based tournament. That was their first time pairing up. Eiker-Perez obviously have shown the skill level to work together, but it could be closer than expected as they try to find their chemistry quickly.

(8)Bucsa-Xu
It’s an all first timer’s battle in round one against Olmos-Pegula. That makes this one unpredictable and certainly within the realm of the non-seeded team scoring a win. It wouldn’t really be an upset either as odds makers have already put this one with slight favoritism shown to Olmos-Pegula. It’s all about who finds rhythm and chemistry first. I think it might be tougher for the seeds with Bucsa having been at the Olympics through Sunday with Spanish partner Sorribes Tormo.

DRAW PREVIEW

TOP HALF

Quarter #1
The top seeds look to resume their hot streak on grass that saw them win 12 of 15 overall on the surface and make three finals, including Wimbledon. Overall, they’ve made the semifinals or finals in six of the ten tournaments they’ve paired at in 2024. Hard courts were where they started their partnership last Summer in Montreal. After some middling results, they put it all together to win the US Open titles. They certainly look the part of favorites this week and this quarter is set up fairly well for them. Linette-Stearns would be the tougher early match-up off the bye for their opener in round two. That pair has some limited experience together, but showed well last Fall on hard courts in their first tournament in Beijing. They made the semifinals. This year, they’ve played just twice and split a pair of matches at Wimbledon.

In the bottom half, Eikeri-Perez look to capture lightning-in-a-bottle like they did back in 2021 in their only other pro tournament together. There they ran to the titles on hard courts in Tenerife with three of the four matches needing super tie break finishes. I mentioned earlier that they get an interesting test out of the gates in Canadians Arsenault-Kupres. The young wild card entries won the Granby ITF tournament in July in their only tournament together, so they’ve got chemistry. Their limited pro doubles experience may be a bit to overcome here, but in front of the home crowd, perhaps they can steal a set? The bigger problem for the seeds figures to come in round two. Babos-Kichenok showed solid results right away at Wimbledon when paired for the first time as they made the quarterfinals. That included a win over Perez and her regular partner Melichar-Martinez. Bouzkova-Danilina shouldn’t be glossed over as their opening opponents. They may not have paired together, but both are solid doubles players. Either way, I think one of those two could spring the surprise and grab the quarterfinal berth in this section.

Dabrowski-Routliffe simply need to hit the ground winning with a win to show their form is still there after an excellent grass court swing. It might take a minute, but I’d expect they’ll find it. The main threat for me outside of Eikeri-Perez would be whomever takes that opener between Babos-Kichenok and Bouzkova-Danilina. My eyes are on Babos-Kichenok.

Quarter #2
It’s Mertens-Muhammad and Schuurs-Stefani as the seeds in this quarter. The question for Mertens-Muhammad is how they’ll fare together for the first time. Mertens is certainly an elite doubles player, but she hasn’t played with anyone other than Hsieh in 2024. Muhammad has held her on on the doubles court, including a title win in Washington last week with Taylor Townsend. That was her fourth final this year with three different partners and she’s won three of those four finals. The plus for them in this part of the draw is their opener will be against a team with limited experience in Mladenovic-Zhang or no experience together in Gamarra Martins-Gleason. I already outlined that I think Mladenovic-Zhang will be the more dangerous duo.

In the other half, Schuurs-Stefani look to get untracked after losing their last three during the grass court swing. Their season as a whole has been mediocre at 16-10, but ten of those wins did come on hard courts. Eight of those were in the first two tournaments of the season, so it’s been a real struggle after a bright start to 2024. They’ll get the Fernandez sisters playing at home in round one. They’ve only played a dozen pro matches together (6-6) with their last coming in October 2022. Bianca’s experience is very limited overall, so I don’t think it’s fair to expect much out of them even on home soil. Combine that matchup with two first time pairings in the other match in this half and you have a recipe for Schuurs-Stefani to get to a quarterfinal.

There are definitely quite a few questions in this section, but the two seeds look to be the stronges pairings. You do need to see how Mertens-Muhammad look together and Schuurs-Stefani desperately need a win first, but it would look to be a surprise if at least one of them doesn’t grab a spot in the quarters. That Mladenovic-Zhang combo is the one I’m excited to see. One other team to keep an eye on is Krueger-Harris. Krueger has proven to be a solid enough doubles player and Harrison has plenty of experience, but mainly at the ITF level. Still, you never know until you know with some of these first time pairings and the two Americans are one who are at least being given favorites status in round one. A win to start and then who knows.

BOTTOM HALF

Quarter #3
There’s a lot to look at in this section with only (3)Dolehide-Krawczyk as a regular pairing. The three seeds had an up and down grass swing that ended on an up with a Wimbledon semifinal finish. The hard court swing to start 2024 wasn’t great for them at just 6-5 with four of those wins at one stop in Doha where they made the final. Otherwise, they didn’t score back-to-back wins in their other four hard court tournaments. There is plenty of individual doubles experience that will wait for them in round two, be it the actual experience of playing together in Aoyama-Hozumi or first time team Guo-Ninomiya. I think it’s definitely questionable if Dolehide-Krawczyk can grab a win off a bye with Krawczyk in Paris last week with Danielle Collins and Dolehide not having played since Wimbledon. That first match will be the tough one.

In the other half, it almost seems a certainty that Bucsa-Xu are going to get beat somewhere. Having never paired before, they have that going against them and then you look at the teams in this section and you see some tough outs. While Stephens-Townsend will stick out for name recognition, it might be their first round opponents who are the hardest test to pass in this quarter. Mihailikova-Nicholls have teamed up to an 8-5 record so far this season. Their best results were on grass (6-3), but they showed a good competitive edge last week despite an opening loss in Washington to Kato-Sujiadi in a super tie break. Stephens-Townsend have only played four times in their careers (3-1) and this will be their first pairing since Billie Jean King Cup play last Fall. Townsend is obviously super confident off the Wimbledon win and also a win in Washington last week, but do they have the chemistry together to contend? Olmos-Pegula are an X-factor here, but both have been up and down in doubles play this year. Still, the individual talent should not be overlooked.

Dolehide-Krawczyk have played more consistently as the season has worn on, but those five opening match losses still stick out. I think if they get past their first match, then you have to look at them as the team to beat obviously. I’m not sure they get past that opener though and there is plenty of other talent in this section that could jump out and get hot. The Mihailikova-Nicholls duo stands out, but the winner of that Bucsa-Xu/Olmos-Pegula could just need a win to start and show off some instant chemistry.

Quarter #4
Two strong seeds in this section with Kichenok-Ostapenko and Kenin/Mattek-Sands. I talked about how Kichenok-Ostapenko might be in trouble early however with two quality teams vying to face them in round two. Jang-Wiu and Kato-Sutjiadi square off for the second week in a row with Jang-Wiu scoring the 6-4, 7-6 win in Washington last week. It’s always difficult to beat an opponent of fairly equal footing two weeks straight, so let’s see how it goes. Kichenok-Ostapenko have been solid on hard at 13-5, but I mentioned how the lay off and bye could be equalizers here against two in-form teams. If they can escape, then they may well emerge from this bottom half of the draw.

As for Kenin-BMS, their set up looks better. Hard courts have been good to them with seven wins in eight matches. One was a first-up loss at Indian Wells, but that was a harsh draw against Gauff-Pegula. Their win in Miami featured quality wins over Kichenok-Ostapenko, Hsieh-Mertens, gold medalists Errani-Paolini and Dabrowski-Routliffe. They’re legitimate contenders for this title. Marino-Stakusic may enjoy a bit of home support in their opener, but it’s their first match together, so that works against them. Then round two would be against Samsonova-Wang who have just one match together from last week in Washington (a win) and another first time team in Pair-Parks. The seeded Americans can’t ask for a better path to the quarters and even if it’s Kichenok-Ostapenko, they’re fully capable of beating them again.

I’ve got Kenin-BMS as my favorites in this quarter, but the survivor between Jang-Wiu and Kato-Sutjiadi will be dangerous and fully capable of putting together a push into the semifinals.

THE PIG’S DRAW PROJECTION

Q1 QF: (1)Dabrowski-Routliffe vs Babos-Kichenok
Q2 QF: (4)Mertens-Muhammad vs (5)Schuurs-Stefani
Q3 QF: (8)Bucsa-Xu vs Aoyama-Hozumi
Q4 QF: (7)Kenin-BMS vs Kato-Sutjiadi

PIG PIX

Dabrowski-Routliffe
Kenin-BMS