ATP Montreal Preview

MONTREAL: NEWS & NOTES

*In case you’re asleep by this point in the tennis calendar, remember that the ATP and WTA alternate between Montreal and Toronto each year. That means the 2023 tournament was held in Toronto. Arevalo-Rojer were the unseeded champions, wining the title match at 2.01 (+101). There were the first unseeded champions at the Canadian Masters stop since Granollers-Zeballos won here in Montreal in 2019. Last year’s final was settled in straight sets, ending a two-year run of super tie break finishes in the title match. The last dogs to bite in the finale before Arevalo-Rojer’s slight nibble were Ram-Salisbury in 2021. The veteran duo were 2.63 (+163) dogs in the championship match.

*Underdogs accounted for seven wins in 2023 out of 28 matches. The largest hit was in round one at 2.60 (+160). The majority of the dog bites came late though with four coming in the final seven matches of the tournament. The last time this tournament stopped in Montreal, underdogs were plentiful with ten grabbing wins. Six of those came in round one. The biggest hits came in round two via seeded upsets at 3.49 (+249) and 3.02 (+202) when the top two seeds went down.

*Last year in Toronto, three seeds went one and done in their opening matches. That included the top two seeds. Four seeds were bounced early in 2022 in Montreal and once again, the top seeds were among the casualties. Multiple seeds have lost their openers at this event since 2017. Don’t be afraid to look at the top four seeds either, they’ve been in that mix quite often.

*Unseeded pairs have been regular deep runners in Canada. Last year, three of the eight quarterfinalists were not seeded and of course, the champions were part of that mix. In 2022 in Montreal, there were five unseeded quarterfinalists, three of which advanced to the semifinals. The unseeded pair of Dan Evans and John Peers made the final as well. You have to go all the way back to 2016 in Toronto for the last run that didn’t feature at least two unseeded duos in the final eight.

*With tennis at the Olympics running last week, there are a few one-offs this week to keep your eyes on as regular partners ran late from Paris. It also appears that some of the regular pairings we’ve seen in 2024 are at least not working for the two Masters events in Montreal and Cincinnati. Here’s the one-offs to look at in Montreal:

Dodig-Rojer
Glasspool-Mektic

Those two make sense with Dodig normally pairing with Krajicek, who played in the gold medal match on Saturday. It’s worth noting that Dodig is on the entry list in Cincinnati to play with Jamie Murray, while Krajicek will return and pair with Rojer. Rojer’s regular partner in 2024 has been Lloyd Glasspool, but he’ll be with Mektic this week and then Ugo Humbert in Cincinnati. This week’s pairing makes sense with Wesley Koolhof playing deep in Paris in mixed play, Mektic needed a partner. Koolhof-Mektic will return next week in Cincinnati. I’ll keep an eye on Dodig-Krajicek. It might just be a case of them having made commitments for this stretch due to Krajicek’s Olympic involvement with Rajeev Ram, but their season has been stuck in the mud since Miami, so you never know if they’re looking for a break.

SINGLES MINGLE

It’s an interesting mix of regular pairs and some singles pairs in Montreal this week. There are a few intriguing mash-ups that I’ll focus on below as far as the singles players entering the doubles draw.

Pospisil-Shapovalov
As soon as I saw this pair listed, I knew I had to talk about them. While Vasek Pospisil’s career has been derailed by injuries for years, we know he’s shown the ability to be a quality doubles partner. He paired with Nicolas Mahut last year in Toronto and has still brought some decent Davis Cup wins in the last year paired with Galarneau. Shapovalov has played less frequently in doubles the last few years amidst his singles struggles. In fact, he’s played just one doubles match in 2024. Shapo did have a nice run in Montreal with Rohan Bopanna back in 2019 with that pair making the semifinals. The Canadians are 4-2 all-time together with all of those coming in Davis Cup play. This will be their first match since beating Krawietz-Puetz in November 2022.

Khachanov-Rublev
The Russians continue to pair at some of the bigger tournaments each year. This year, they’ve split six matches. They played this tournament once in Toronto back in 2021, going 1-1. Their best results have come on clay with a 16-9 record on dirt and only 19-19 on hard courts. Their best result on hard came in 2019 in Miami, where they made the final. They’re usually competitive, but in the end, likely won’t be a factor after round two.

Bublik-Shelton
By names alone, this is a pairing you want to watch. While Bublik is about as natural a doubles player as a bowling ball, this duo actually had some immediate success in their only previous tournament together. That came in Rome this year on clay where they made the semifinals. Perhaps the results are a bit skewed however when you look close as they beat two other singles pairs en route. All three of their wins needed a super tie break to settle things with their loss coming in straights against Granollers-Zeballos. They may not go anywhere, but they’ll be entertaining to watch.

Griekspoor-Korda
This is a first time pairing with two players who have had some sporadic doubles success. Korda has had more success in 2024 at 11-7. His biggest success coming in Madrid with Jordan Thompson as the pair stunned their way to the titles. He played Washington last week, splitting a pair of matches with Max Purcell as his partner. Griekspoor has struggled to find doubles wins at 5-11 this year. He did score an Olympic win paired with Koolhof before they fell in a super tie break against Nadal-Alcaraz in round two. Griekspoor does also have a title to show for his work this year, pairing with Jan-Lennard Struff to win in Dubai. Outside of that run though the Olympic win was his only other one in doubles player. Still, I want to see this pair. They may be trouble if they have any chemistry.

SEEDS: ONE AND DONE WATCH (First Match Upset Watch)

As laid out in the news and notes, seeds have had some trouble getting out of the gates at this Canadian-based event, whether in Montreal or Toronto. With a lot of these pairs coming back together either after different pairings at the Olympics or elsewhere, that trend likely continues. Montreal is continuing with this silly trend of seeding the top 16 teams in a 28 pair field. For the purposes in this section and the historical data, I’m only looking at the teams seeded 1-8.

(1)Granollers-Zeballos
This would be mainly based on them seeing Lammons-Withrow for their opener in round two. The Americans have a winnable match in round one, so I do expect this one to go down. Lammons-Withrow come in hot off a trip to the Citi Open final in Washington, DC this past week and they also won the titles in Atlanta the week prior. They’re finally beginning to heat up, so they could catch the top seeds early as they transition onto hard courts. The Americans have lost three of four career meetings, but that lone win was on hard courts in Auckland last year. I expect a tight one and that gives Lammons-Withrow a chance to upset.

(2)Bopanna-Ebden
This is another pair that will absolutely be looking forward the return to hard courts. They started off hot with the Australian Open titles in the midst of a 14-3 record on hard this year. Then they went 6-6 on clay and grass combined. While their success on hard courts is hard to overlook, it’s another potentially tough spot with the two seeds likely to see Nys-Zielinksi in round two. If that’s the match, Bopanna-Ebden are 2-0 against them, but both matches have been extremely tight. If you look at the two seeds in 2024, their openers at hard court tournaments have featured four matches out of five going the distance. The other was a match settled in two tie break sets. They’ve been on the right side of those so far, but with those small margins, things can turn against you with one or two key points. I think Nys-Zielinski will be a challenge if they get to round two.

(3)Ram-Salisbury
It’s been a tough season by their standards at 16-11. Hard courts have been their best surface though at 9-3 in 2024, so maybe this will be a nice elixir for what’s ailed them. They’re a tough read in this stretch of the season with some great results in Toronto, making the final twice in their careers and also a semifinal finish in Montreal in 2019. What sticks out though is that they’ve lost their first match during this North American swing in each of the past two seasons. Off the bye, they’ll see the Glasspool-Mektic/Khachanov-Rublev survivor. I think Khachanov-Rublev would be the tougher out.

(4)Arevalo-Pavic
A tough opening draw could await the French Open champions. They could see Skupski-Venus in round two. The former LSU college products looked deadly as they paired up during the grass swing for a dozen wins in 14 matches. They need to get by the one-off pair of Grigor Dimitrov and Jamie Murray first, but if they do, they’re going to test the four seeds. Arevalo-Pavic really seemed to find their footing on clay this Spring and that form carried over onto grass, so perhaps they’re just in a better place now, but … they stumbled on hard courts earlier. After winning the titles in Hong Kong, they went just 4-4 on outdoor hard courts with a pair of opening losses.

(6)Gonzalez/Roger-Vasselin
Their reformation this Spring after starting 2024 with different partners has not been what they had hoped. They’re only 6-7 in seven tournaments played. They’ve lost their openers twice, so this is a spot that could be problematic with Griekspoor-Korda up first. I talked up this singles pair earlier. While we don’t know what they’ll bring as a first time pair, they could compete well and put the seeded duo into a bind in round one.

DRAW PREVIEW

TOP HALF

Quarter #1
This is a tough quarter. You’ve got Granollers-Zeballos and Bolelli-Vavassori as the top seeds in this section and then you’ve got two very dangerous pairs in Lammons-Withrow and Purcell-Thompson looming as potential round two foes for those higher seeded pairs. Let’s start with the top section and Granollers-Zeballos. I mentioned that Lammons-Withrow come in hot with wins in six straight going into Sunday’s final in Washington. No matter the result on Sunday, the Americans will post a significant threat to the top seeds if they meet in round two. In the bottom half, Bolelli-Vavassori will look to shake off the disappointment of losing early at the Olympics. Off the bye, they could have a difficult time with Purcell-Thompson as a potential foe.

The Aussies are 3-0 already in this swing with pair of strategic withdrawals in Atlanta and Washington due to singles activities. I think when they made the Wimbledon final, all questions were answered as to whether the Aussies could beat top tier teams at big events. They did, including Granollers-Zeballos in that run in London. They lost to the 5th seeded Italians at the French Open, but hard courts should suit them better for an upset bid. Bolelli-Vavassori have to contend with the home favorites first with Pospisil-Shapovalov. I didn’t put that on the upset watch because of the unknown factor. The Italians were solid on hard courts this Spring at 7-3, but do arrive with opening losses in their last two tournaments.

With the depth in this quarter, I think you’ll be hard pressed to see the two higher seeds both get into the quarterfinals. There’s a decent chance neither Granollers-Zeballos or Bolelli-Vavassori make it with Lammons-Withrow and Purcell-Thompson in fine form already on this surface. I’d definitely look for one of those two teams in the quarterfinals at-minimum with a very real shot one of them could get to the semis. I give the Aussies a slight edge between those two.

Quarter #2
Arevalo-Pavic and Gonzalez-Molteni are the two higher seeds in this section, but you’ve also got more danger with Skupski-Venus and Krawietz-Puetz in another loaded quarter. In the top with Arevalo-Pavic, it will be important for the four seeds to get off with a win after their struggles on hard courts this Spring. The Olympic break probably wasn’t great timing for them as they had made the quarterfinals or better in eight of nine tournaments. They’ll need to prove their mettle again right away with Skupski-Venus as likely opening opponents in round two. If their play on grass is anything to go by, they’ll continue to be one of the toughest outs on tour.

In the bottom half, Gonzalez-Molteni had a better go on hard courts in 2023 at 16-7 than most would have expected for a team better known for mowing down duos on clay. They started the swing hot last year in winning the titles in Washington and then following up with a title run in Cincinnati and a quarterfinal at the US Open. In between though was an opening loss in Toronto and they’ve gone one and done in their last two hard court openers in 2024. One thing to note is that the 7th seeds have needed a super tie break or third set in five of seven on hard courts this year. They do have a winnable opener, but Krawietz-Puetz could be a stopping point in round two. The Germans gets Canadian wild cards Draxl-Sigouin, who did win a hard court Challenger title in their first tournament together this year. Krawietz-Puetz have been great at avoiding early defeat with only two opening losses out of 15 tournaments. They’ve been rock solid on hard this year at 10-4 with their four tournament results yielding a final, a quarterfinal and two semifinals.

Both Gonzalez-Molteni and Krawietz-Puetz have no partner transitions to worry about this week and that might put one of them in position to secure the semfinal berth from this quarter. If it comes down to those two for a quarterfinal spot, Krawietz-Puetz own the only win in the head-to-head, a super tie break win in 2023 indoors. I’m intrigued by Skupski-Venus again as they showed tremendous chemistry when first teaming early in the Summer on grass. They’re dark horse contenders if they carry that form over. I need to see Arevalo-Pavic re-establish their dominance before I feel comfortable with them on hard courts, but I expect that will come, but it might be another week. Krawietz-Puetz could well be the silent assassins again in this quarter, quietly just winning match after match.

BOTTOM HALF

Quarter #3
This is a quarter with all the moving parts. Ram-Salisbury and Gonzalez-ERV are the top seeds here, but both are coming back together after playing with different partners in recent weeks. Then you have the one-offs of Dodig-Rojer and Glasspool-Mektic that will be hard to read. Dodig-Rojer did play together a few times in 2018, but that is ages ago and has no bearing here for me. Their draw isn’t terrible though with Medvedev-Safiulin up first. A win there and they look to be candidates to push into the quarterfinals I think. For Gonzalez-ERV in the top half, can they get by the singles pair of Griekspoor-Korda? Those two have both proven to be winners in doubles at times, but will they have the chemistry to get the early win? I think this half is WIDE OPEN. I mean even Medvedev-Safiulin could luck out and maybe win a couple here. They may be 0-3 together, but all have been competitive for the most part.

In the bottom, this is a a spot where Ram-Salisbury could get it together early and make a run … or be left on a plane to Cincinnati after their opener. I do like Khachanov-Rublev to take that round one clash against Glasspool-Mektic. Those two “doubles specialists” are pairing for the first time and I think it’s a tough ask to go against two players who have a lot of doubles experience to start. Maybe they’ll have some instant success, but my gut says no. For me, this is really about the Ram-Salisbury opener. If they win, I would not be surprised to see them take off and make the semifinals. It’s a question though, but this still looks like a very winnable quarter if they can find their best.

On paper, this screams Ram-Salisbury to win. Still with the unknown factor in the two one-off pairings for this week with Dodig-Rojer and Glasspool-Mektic, who knows. And then you throw in singles pairs with promise like Khachanov-Rublev and Griekspoor-Korda and thing look cloudier. Dodig-Rojer are the ones I really think could play into the mix here. They’re obviously experienced, but need to find each other’s games quickly.

Quarter #4
Bopanna-Ebden and Wimbledon champions Heliovaara-Patten are you highest seeds in this quarter. The set up for both isn’t easy. For Bopanna-Ebden, if it’s Nys-Zielinski in round two, it could be lights out early. With how they struggled after switching off hard courts, this should be a welcomed part of the calendar. Still, you’ve got Ebden coming off his Olympic high with a different partner, so there’s every reason to believe they might have a bit of a struggle to get going early. Nys-Zielinski will be happy to see grass season over as they lost three of four. They are 10-6 on outdoor hard courts in 2024, but did struggle in these two Summer Masters stops last year. They’ve really gotten going best at Winston-Salem heading to the US Open with a pair of quarterfinals in New York the last two years. Maybe that bodes well for Bopanna-Ebden after all?

The other half sees Heliovaara-Patten, who returned to action in Washington last week. They made the quarterfinals with a win and a loss. From what I read on Harri’s blog, the conditions in DC with the heat and some of the rules experiments seemed to throw their mind set off a bit. Back in a normal setting, we’ll see if they get back on a roll. Their opener may be a harsh one with Bublik-Shelton waiting. I mentioned their immediate success in Rome in their first partnership together, but this will be a top tier team they’re facing. I think it will help that the seeds played last week and I’m expecting a tight one, but one that Heliovaara-Patten should get through (I think). It’s Gille-Vliegen, the regular pair, in the other match in round one against first timers Sinner-Draper. Sinner has been a fairly solid doubles guy when called upon. The Italian is only 2-3 in doubles this year, but all three losses were competitive with two decided in super tie breaks. That included a STB loss in Monte-Carlo with Sonego against Gille-Vliegen. The question for me is Draper who rarely plays doubles (0-2 this year). The plust for the singles pair here is that Gille-Vliegen are not as consistent on hard courts at 5-7 this year with opening losses in four of their last five on the surface.

When you dissect this quarter more closely, you tend to like Bopanna-Ebden’s chances more. It’s a lot like Ram-Salisbury to me, where they need that first win and then the roll could ensue. Heliovaara-Patten in theory have the better draw, so they should find themselves with a chance to play into a semifinal. If not one of those two, it might be one of the singles pairs with Bublik-Shelton seeming a bit more logical of a choice than the others.

THE PIG’S DRAW PROJECTION

Q1 QF: Lammons-Withrow vs Purcell-Thompson
Q2 QF: Skupski-Venus vs Krawietz-Puetz
Q3 QF: Dodig-Rojer vs (3)Ram-Salisbury
Q4 QF: (8)Heliovaara-Patten vs (2)Bopanna-Ebden

PIGPIX

I’m expecting this week to be a bit crazy as things go back to “normal tour life” after the Olympics. I think with the number of players coming back from Paris and/or having played with or still playing with different partners in the interim, it leaves a lot of questions hanging out there for the week. I think at least half the field are legitimate contenders, but here’s my top three guesses for Montreal.

Skupski-Venus
Ram-Salisbury
Krawietz-Puetz