SEEDS: ONE AND DONE WATCH (First Match Upset Watch)
Much like I touched on in my men’s preview, being a seed at the Olympics does not guarantee anything. The last time around in Tokyo, four of the eight seeds were booted in the opening round. Some of that again comes down to getting those odd combinations that have little to no experience with each other and some of it comes down to the draw itself. In 2024, I think it’s a little harder to find upset potential in these round one upsets.
I do see a couple that you can make a case for at least being tougher than most, so let’s focus on those to start.
(1)Gauff-Pegula
The top seeds may have finally unlocked themselves with their Wimbledon quarterfinal run this Summer. Before that, they had lost three in a row and just didn’t seem like the same duo who was one of the big stories of consistency in 2023. During their 35 win season a year ago, a dozen of those wins were on clay with finals in Madrid and Rome along with a semifinal finish at the French Open. When they’re on, they’re most definitely gold medal-level contenders. They still haven’t quite looked that yet in 2024 with some very poor losses. They face Aussies Perez-Saville to start. That pair is 7-1 throughout their careers together and got their only win in their only match this year in BJK Cup play in April. If everyone is at their best, the Americans win this and could make it look easy, but we have not really seen their best consistently in 2024. I really don’t expect a loss, but again in round one, that’s the time you can catch some of these pairs before they get things right.
(4)Collins-Krawczyk
Listen, the Americans have been outstanding when they’ve paired up. They combined for a 10-2 record with a title on clay in Charleston last year and they made the Wimbledon semifinals back in 2022 in just their second tournament together. That said, their Charleston run was full of super tie breaks with all four matches needing the finisher. They battle Greeks Papamichail-Sakkari, who have some experience in the team setting, having played Billie Jean King Cup early this year. They went 2-0 and also played very well together a decade ago when they first paired up at the ITF level. I don’t think they’re at the overall level that the Americans bring at their best, but getting them in round one when they haven’t played together in more than a year could make this more interesting.
(6)Haddad-Maia/Stefani
The Brazilians have been steady when paired up at 10-3 overall, but they’ve played just two matches together this year. That was their first since 2019. Both were wins on hard courts in Abu Dhabi. They are 4-2 on clay, but again those were five years ago. They’ll face the Chinese pair Yuan-Zhang who are pairing up for the first time ever. Zhang in her day has been very good with two Grand Slam titles to her credit in 2019 and 2021 on hard courts with Sam Stosur. She also made the 2022 Wimbledon final with Elise Mertens and is a two-time French Open quarterfinalist in mixed play. She’s skilled, but can she elevate her younger partner into a duo with upset potential? They’re 3.21 (+221) underdogs in this one, but perhaps it will be closer than expected with the super tie break finishes always making matches tough on the favorites.
THE UNSEEDED UNICORNS
The 2020 games in Tokyo saw two unseeded pairs getting into the medal round with Switzerland’s Belinda Bencic and Voktorija Golubic finishing with silver. Overall, five of the quarterfinal duos were unseeded. That was a switch from 2016 when just two unseeded pairs made the quarters with one moving into the medal round, with Safarova-Strycova winning bronze. Are there teams who could make a run this year? You’re damn right.
Hsieh-Tsao
An easy first inclusion on the list is doubles legend Su-wei Hseih and her partner Chia Yi Tsao. I wonder out loud in the Prague preview last week if this team could get the reps to build chemistry, believing they’d be a very good team once they did. They scored two wins in Prague, showing a developing chemistry and then called it a day by withdrawing ahead of a semifinal showdown against Krejcikova-Siniakova. They’re in the half opposite of Gauff-Pegula in that quarter, so that gives them a realistic shot at making the last eight to get a shot at making the medal round. They’re definite dark horse contenders in my mind.
Kerber-Siegemund
I’ll take a shot at just about any competent player pairing up with Laura Siegemund and think they could be a solid doubles team. This is Kerber’s final tournament as she announced her retirement after the Olympics, so that makes this more interesting for her perhaps. Kerber isn’t going to be mistaken for a doubles specialist with a career record well under .500. She also hasn’t had a partner as adept at doubles in my opinion as she gets with Siegemund. Siegemund is a bulldog in doubles, gritty, quick and aggressive. She’s a three time Slam champion with two of those in mixed and the other at the 2020 US Open. This is her third Olympics and she’s searching for her first women’s doubles win. They’re in a tough quarter with Errani-Paolini and Haddad Maia/Stefani as seeds, but let’s see if they have any chemistry. If they do, they could be dangerous.
Wang-Zheng
All this Chinese pair has done is win together with a 19-5 record. That includes 9-4 this year with a 4-2 record on clay. They have solid wins on that surface over Shuurs-Stefani and Hsieh-Mertens, plus a win on grass against their opening opponents, the Kichenok sisters. They may ultimately not go far, but this has been a very competitive team and one that can be a nightmare for most in this draw.
Routliffe-Sun
This is a total shot in the dark because they face one of the best teams on clay in 2024 in Errani-Paolini to open, but the New Zealand duo may warrant a closer look. It’s hard to pass up a team that features the #1 ranked doubles player (Routliffe). What you may not know is that 20-year-old Lulu Sun isn’t half bad herself with a pair of ITF doubles titles this year paired with Fanny Stollar. Routliffe-Sun got their first reps together at the BJK Cup in April, losing a tight super tie break to Guo-Wang (14-12). IF and it’s a massive IF, but IF they shocked the world and took out the three seeds to start, the duo from New Zealand would instantly become contenders to get on the medal podium.
DRAW PREVIEW
TOP HALF
Quarter #1
At their peak, (1)Gauff-Pegula would certainly be considered a stone cold lock to be in the medal mix. As I said though, we have not yet seen that level from them consistently in 2024, especially against top tier teams. That said, this quarter is about as good as they could have asked for outside of a potential quarterfinal against Hsieh-Tsao. That’s the team for me that can prevent the top seeds from being in the medal round. In the half with Gauff-Pegula, the first rounder against Perez-Saville could be competitive and tricky, but I still see them getting it done. And then round two against the Czech or Russian duo, who are both pairing for the first time, should be more winnable. I do think they’re at least in the quarterfinals.
As for the bottom half, Kostyuk-Yastremska are the seeds. The Ukraine pair are 4-3 together in limited play with no matches together in 2024. That said when you look back at their Grand Slam pairings, they’ve been tough outs. This will be their first time on clay. They should get past round one, but it’s round two that’s going to be tough. It’s Hsieh-Tsao or Begu-Niculescu. I’ve talked up the Taiwainese pair plenty, but don’t sleep on their Romanian opposition. They have a wealth of experience together (44-22), but have not stepped on court together since 2022. Niculescu was around in Tokyo and helped craft an upset on round one of another team from Taiwain in the Chan sisters, who were seeded fifth. I still like Hsieh-Tsao, but I’m not going to be surprised to see a super tie break in that one.
Last week, I was pining for a Krejcikova-Siniakova showdown against Hsieh-Tsao in Prague. That dream was dashed, so do I get my hopes up for Gauff-Pegula vs Hsieh-Tsao quarterfinal? There are definitely speed bumps in the way for both, but it looks possible. The worrisome match for the Americans has to be their opener and simply getting off to a good start. Hsieh-Tsao look to have a tougher path, yet I strangely may be more confident that they get to the final eight. For all of Hsieh’s accomplishments, the Olympics and a medal have eluded her to this point. We know it’s likely her last shot at age 38 (but who knows). Could there be some magic this time around?
Quarter #2
There won’t be too many prognosticators not picking (3)Errani-Paolini to emerge from this quarter and fight for a medal. It’s hard to go against a team that won the titles in Rome and made the final here in Paris earlier at the French Open. The reps and form are there, but this quarter isn’t quite straight forward. As I mentioned with the unseeded unicorns, round one itself may be a puzzle with Routliffe-Sun. I think that’s the biggest test in their way of being in the quarterfinals. Garcia-Parry may have home cooking on their side, but a lack of experience together won’t help. It’s too bad we can’t see the Garcia-Mladenovic combo in this spot. I don’t see them or Rus-Schuurs putting the Italians down if that’s the match-up. Routiffe-Sun for me are the ones to watch IF there are any surprises in this section.
In the other half, Haddad-Maia/Stefani certainly will be looking to make a medal push and feel they rightfully have a shot. Don’t forget that Stefani won a bronze in Tokyo with Laura Pigosi, so the big match experience is within her. Haddad-Maia has been a bit sporadic with her doubles play this year, going just 9-6. She hasn’t won a doubles match since Indian Wells. Yuan-Zhang could make things tough and then Kerber-Siegemund or Boulter-Watson could be intriguing options to get through as unseeded pairs. I talked about the Germans already, but the Brits look like they have enough working together to perhaps score the win in round one. They have only paired once, but it was a very competitive opening loss at the French Open to a good pair in Chan-Kudermetova. The Brits vs Germans could be an under-the-radar round one banger.
This certainly could fall to a seed versus seed scenario, but I tend to think one of these unseeded pairs is going to get into the quarterfinals. It would seem a bit more likely that it comes in the bottom half where Haddad-Maia/Stefani reside. I don’t know if I rate one more highly than the other, other than being more fascinated by the Kerber-Siegemund pairing than the others.
BOTTOM HALF
Quarter #3
The Collins-Krawczyk half is open for another American push towards a quarterfinal, but it also is not without its pitfalls. The Wang-Zheng pairing is the one that I think could be the ones to watch. I’m not sure I give the Greeks the green light on being a team with true upset potential, but again I do think round one might wind up being very competitive against the four seeds. The Kichenoks seem the biggest outsiders, but they did finally show something on clay in Charleston this Spring. The sister duo made the final and they’ve been competitive in just about all of their seven team ups in 2024. I really like what Collins-Krawczyk have shown in limited play and have shown on the bigger stages, so they’re the pick still for me in this section.
The other half sees Madrid champions Bucsa/Sorribes Tormo as the seeds. That’s their only tournament of 2024, but it was perfection for them to win at home. Bucsa has been especially impressive in doubles this year, moving inside the top 20 and racking up a 26-12 record. The Spanish duo has a huge experience advantage over the other three pairs in this half and it would be a stunner for me if they do not make the quarterfinals. Unless the moment is just too big, I have a hard time looking at the other three pairs in this half and saying hey they have a shot to get it done. Of course that’s usually when upsets happen, right?
I’m not 100 percent confident it’s seed versus seed for the semifinal spot, but I do think one of the seeds emerges. Bucsa/Sorribes-Tormo have the smoother path for me, but I think Collins-Krawczyk have the better big match pedigree if they can navigate this quarter. I’d definitely keep an eye on the Kichenoks/Wang-Zheng winner as the ones who could prevent the Americans from going deeper.
Quarter #4
I almost felt like all I needed to type for this quarter is two words: Krejcikova-Siniakova. Do I need to say more? We’re looking at the defending gold medal winners who also come in hot with the titles in Prague this past week in their first tournament together since they split in 2023. The Czech super stars look to join Mary Joe/Gigi Fernandez and Serena/Venus Williams as women’s pairs to repeat gold medal wins at consecutive Olympic games. They face the Chans who played them tough in the past, but those were better days for the Taiwan pair and they still went 0-3. The Chans did make the quarterfinals at the 2016 Olympics, but that came during one of their strongest seasons. Aoyoma-Shibahara seem the likely fodder for Krejcikova-Siniakova in round two. Clay isn’t their best surface though and they went 0-2 against the Czechs last year on hard courts.
The question should be who plays the Czechs for a shot at the medal round? Dabrowski-Fernandez look to be rightful favorites. The Canadians have only played seven matches together, but they went unbeaten in BJK Cup play in 2022 and 2023 (4-0) WITH a massive win over Krejcikova-Siniakova last year. Those two also met at the 2021 French Open with the Czechs needing three sets to win en route to their second French Open title together. So it’s definitely a duo that gives the Czechs trouble and could potentially rattle the bracket in the quarterfinals. Nothing is ever a lock in life, but seeing the two seeds square off in the quarterfinals in this part of the draw seems very, very likely at the least.
Can the seven time Grand Slam champions and defending gold medalists be stopped? Krejcikova-Siniakova didn’t look to have missed a beat this past week in Prague, but that team of Dabrowksi-Fernandez may well be the toughest team for them to face in the entire tournament based on past results. You pick against the Czechs at your own peril, but keep in mind that Krejcikova is playing singles and women’s doubles, while Siniakova is playing everything – singles, women’s and mixed. Could fatigue cost them somewhere in the end?
THE PIG’S DRAW PROJECTION
Q1 QF: (1)Gauff-Pegula vs Hsieh-Tsao
Q2 QF: (3)Errani-Paolini vs Kerber-Siegemund
Q3 QF: (8)Bucsa-Sorribes Tormo vs (4)Collins-Krawczyk
Q4 QF: (5)Dabrowski-Fernandez vs (2)Krejcikova-Siniakova
PIG PIX
Krejcikova-Siniakova
Hsieh-Tsao
Errani-Paolini
Catch me on “X” @tennispig any time to talk doubles and yes, I’ll still give a singles opinion when you ask. Look for PIGPIX posted daily and let’s get people to #WatchMoreDoubles
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