SEEDS: ONE AND DONE WATCH (First Match Upset Watch)
This is an important place to start in the Olympic draw with many of the seeds comprised of either singles players or pairs that have rarely if never played with each other. That means seeing a number next to a duo in Paris doesn’t necessarily mean they’re considered favorites. If you look back to the 2020 Olympic Games in Tokyo, half of the eight seeds were beaten in round one. Of those four, only Herbert-Mahut were a regular pairing that lost. The other three were Khachanov-Rublev, Hurkacz-Kubot and Medvedev-Karatsev. That’s mostly single players littered in the mix with Kubot as the only true “doubles specialist” amongst that trio.
Back in 2016, three seeded pairs fell early. Interestingly, those included Herbert-Mahut again, Andy and Jamie Murray, and Monfils-Tsonga. While Herbert-Mahut were a regular pairing, both the Murray brothers and the French duo had very little experience together. The five seeded pairs that advanced out of round one were all mostly experienced pairs or pairs made up of doubles players with the excepion of Bautista Agut and Ferrer. The Spaniards made the quarterfinals. So for me, it is important to look at the seeds and which ones might be more prone to exiting in round one.
(3)Fritz-Paul
While the Americans have played together a total of 24 times it’s been sporadic with only three matches together (all losses) in the past two years. Even more troubling might be their 1-4 record on clay. Note that four of those five matches required a super tie break finish. The plus for them is they face a similarly inexperienced pair in Felix Auger-Aliassime and Milos Raonic. The Canadians are 2-1, but all those matches came in 2020 with two needing super tie break finishes as well. Raonic hasn’t played a doubles match since 2021. Given the power serves involved in this one though, I think you can see how this one may well go to a STB and be a 50/50 type of call.
(5)Salisbury-Skupski
The Brits have had success together with a 13-4 record, but a lot of that was on hard courts from 2018 and 2021. They did pair in Madrid this year where they split two matches. One of those was a loss to half the team they face in round one. That’s the Czech duo Pavlasek-Machac. Pavlasek was part of the team with Behar that took out the Brits in round two in Madrid. The Czechs have only played three times, but all were in big Davis Cup settings. They won early this and included a 2023 win over a Serbian squad headlined by Novak Djokovic. The Czechs opened around 2.70 (+170) for this match.
(6)Gonzalez-Molteni
Normally, the six seeds would not be on this list, especially on their preferred surface. However, they’ve been given the unceremonious task of facing Rafael Nadal and Carlos Alcaraz to start. Despite some late news about a thigh issue for Nadal, the Spanish pair should be considered dangerous. Gonzalez-Molteni are 36-13 on clay the past two seasons, but I do think it’s fair to ask how true those results are when you look closer. Outside of their Barcelona title run in 2023, that featured wins over Glasspool-Heliovaara and Koolhof-Skupski, they don’t have a lot of “marquee” wins over top tier pairs. This will be one of the more intriguing openers in Paris as long as Rafa’s leg is okay. Odds makers have the seeds set as firm underdogs around 2.86 (+186) from what I saw and that seems to be a bit of a reach given the unknown factor surrounding Nadal-Alcaraz.
(7)Mektic-Pavic
While they are the defending gold medalists, the Croatians come to Paris not having paired in a little over a year. They were the absolute best doubles team on the planet AFTER winning gold in Tokyo with 118 wins in 153 matches over a two-year span. It all fell apart in 2023 though as they struggled to a 20-14 record and split in the Summer. Pavic has proven capable of winning without Mektic as we saw here in Paris in his championship run with Marcelo Arevalo. These two will be better I feel as they get more time on court again, but that means round one could be iffy. They face Germans Koepfer-Struff to start.
(8)Fils-Humbert
This is your prototypical “singles pair” and they’re playing together for the first time against a regular ATP doubles pair in Gille-Vliegen. Clay has long been their Belgian opponents best surface, so that’s another negative for the French pair. Gille-Vliegen won the titles on Monte-Carlo this season and also made the French Open quarterfinals a year after they made the finals at Roland Garros. This is a familiar venue of success for them and about the only thing going against them is that this too if their first taste of the Olympics. The Belgians are heavy favorites in this one and a win will not be an upset.
UNSEEDED UNICORNS
I always like to look at the unseeded pairs and with this format, there are more than a few who could do some major damage and perhaps even wiggle into medal contention. That shouldn’t come as a surprise with 2020 seeing only the top seeds (Mektic-Pavic) taking home a medal, while the other two spots went to unseeded pairs. The bronze medal match features two unseeded pairs going head-to-head. 2016 saw three of the four semifinal duos being seeds, but 2012 saw two unseeded teams in the final four. So, it is fair to think that some of these teams will be in medal contention.
Gille-Vliegen
See the notes above in the ONE and DONE section if you skimmed past them. The Belgians are certainly one of the most dangerous unseeded pairs in the draw. Their past success on these courts in Paris could play big. They’re also a regular pair in a quarter where that sort of experience is not there for most of the others, so they could find themselves sneaking into medal contention if they play well.
Ebden-Peers
While their draw may not be great, they could play Bolelli-Vavassori in round two, they obviously have the talent. They lost in the title match in Eastbourne this year when they paired up for the first time since 2022. Clay is the question here with the Aussies having only played on dirt once together and that was a loss in Hamburg this year to Frantzen-Jebens. Still, they’re dangerous and both have plenty of big match experience.
Nadal-Alcaraz
There is no denying the individual talent of Alcaraz and Nadal has proven his mettle many times over in doubles, but how will they fare together? Alcaraz has rarely played doubles at this level with his last doubles match in 2022. He’s 3-4 in limited doubles action with five of those needing a super tie break. I think the biggest question other than Rafa’s health is how does Alcaraz do in this setting with the pressure of trying to get another Olympic gold for Nadal? The talent is undeniable, but the other factors are what need to be considered for these two. I think it’s easy to see that they could be on the podium at the end, but just as easily could be dumped out early with a tough first round match and Nadal already sporting another injury concern.
Reboul/Roger-Vasselin
This is an intriguing pair that teamed up for the first time in Hamburg this month. All they did was make the final beating Glasspool-Rojer and another Olympic duo in Krajicek-Ram along the way. They did lose in the final to Krawietz-Puetz who they would likely meet in round two if they get past Balaji-Bopanna in round one. This time however, home court advantage goes to the French. I’m not sure if they’ll step up just because of that, but it is often difficult facing the same team two weeks in a row.
DRAW PREVIEW
TOP HALF
Quarter #1
The top seeds, Bolelli-Vavassori, don’t have an easy path to a potential medal, but this is their best surface. The Italians are 18-6 on clay and have only been stopped short of the quarterfinals once in seven tournaments on the surface. They also made the French Open final on these courts, so it’s familiar territory to help them out. Round one will be a test with Carreno Busta-Granollers. They may not pair up much, but they’re competent enough to make sure the Italians play well to win. Elsewhere in this half, Ebden-Peers will be the others to keep your eyes on. The Aussies have already proven they can win right away with a runner-up finish on grass at Eastbourne this Summer, but clay is the question. I certainly think they win in round one, but facing Bolelli-Vavassori on clay will be a big step up. They’re still fully capable of winning that one and it could wind up going a long way in deciding who is in medal contention in this quarter.
The defending gold medalists Mektic-Pavic are the other seeds in this quarter. It will be the Croats first pairing together since they were dumped out in the round of 16 at Wimbledon last Summer. They really struggled on clay in their last full season together (2-6), but were absolute fire on it when they were the best doubles team on the planet in 2021 and 2022 (27-6). Mektic-Pavic are seeking history in Paris as no men’s doubles team has ever won gold twice in the Open Era. Koepfer-Struff could be a tricky proposition to open. While the Germans have not played much together, they’re both solid doubles players when they have played. Struff especially has been a very good doubles player over the years, so watch out in round one. The other match in this half should be low-key good with the Tsitsipas brothers taking on Portugal’s Borges-Cabral. Both duos have plenty of time on court together, so the experience is there for success. Borges-Cabral played more regularly together a few years ago, but Borges’ rise in singles has led them to not play a lot together at this point. They’ve played just four matches in 2024 and all were losses. The Tsitsi-bros are 5-7 in 2024, 4-3 on clay that includes a quarterfinal run at the French Open. This is listed as a pick em by odds makers, but I think I give the Greeks a small edge.
On form, the top seeded Italians certainly stake claim to being the heavy favorites in this section. They have plenty of competition however with the defending gold medalists Mektic-Pavic fully capable if they can rediscover their connection. As far as outsiders, look to Ebden-Peers and I think the Tsitsi-bros as potential medal round party crashers.
Quarter #2
The top half of this quarter is chock full of singles players pairing up, led by the Americans (3)Fritz-Paul. While their 9-15 record together doesn’t move the needle, they’ve rarely been blown out with 13 of those matches going the distance. Their lone match of 2024 saw them lose to Cerundolo-Etcheverry in a super tie break in Rome. That’s prudent as they could see the Argentines in round two. Fritz-Paul have to get past Auger-Aliassime and Raonic first. I can see that being competitive with some upset potential certainly, but I think I’d like the Canadians better on another surface. As for Cerundolo-Etcheverry, they have a very good duo up first in Haase-Rojer. The Dutch have loads of experience, included plenty of big Davis Cup rubbers and playing at two Olympic games. Cerundolo-Etcheverry have struggled for wins together at 6-18, but all six have come on clay with wins over Fritz-Paul and Krawietz-Puetz in Rome. They’re a potential sleeper in this section.
The bottom half houses (8)Fils-Humbert as the other seeds. I laid out earlier that this is their first match together and it could be a quick one an done with Gille-Vliegen up first. The Belgians have been a little up and down on clay this year, but most of their losses have been to very good teams. I think most people would be surprised if the seeded Frenchmen win in this spot. All eyes will be on the other match in this half as Andy Murray winds down his career. It was announced that Andy will play doubles only in Paris, so his pairing with Dan Evans will be his final match(s). Evans-Murray have paired up a handful of times, so that at least gives them an edge over Japan’s Taro Daniel and Kei Nishikori. Evans-Murray’s lone match this year was a 7-6, 7-6 loss in the opening round of the French Open. Their five career matches together have usually been competitive, so the Brits are going to expect a win here. Both Daniel and Nishikori have not played a lot of doubles in recent years.
You’d be hard pressed to think of any of these teams being OUT of the medal round mix, no matter the experience. This looks to be perhaps the most wide open quarter in the draw. This looks suited perhaps to an unseeded duo like Gille-Vliegen or maybe the Haase-Rojer/Cerundolo-Ethcheverry survivor making a run.
BOTTOM HALF
Quarter #3
Let’s start in the half where anyone with some random doubles interest will be watching Nadal-Alcaraz. Their opener against Argentines Gonzalez-Molteni is a fascinating one that should shape this quarter. Gonzalez-Molteni have all the reps together to be considered more than rank outsiders in this match. I get considering a singles legend in the game and a singles legend in the making a formidable pair for this tournament, but there is a lot to prove. Nadal needs to prove health. Alcaraz needs to prove he can win in doubles AND handle the additional pressure of possibly being Rafa’s best shot to get one final Olympic medal. It’s tough to say how they mesh or do not until we see them, so the six seeds have to like their chances in spite of what most think is a rough draw. The winner is going to be considered the favorites to get to the medal round for me with round two looking more enjoyable. Griekspoor-Koolhof in theory sounds like a good combo, but the Dutch have played just twice and lost both in straight sets. It’s Koolhof’s second Olympics as he paired with Rojer back in 2020 and made round two. I do think they get by the Hungarians Fucsovics-Marozsan.
In the other half, it’s Americans (4)Krajicek-Ram leading the charge and looking the big favorites to advance to the quarterfinals with this draw. The American duo is 21-7 when pairing with a 6-3 mark together in the last two seasons. They’re 2-3 on clay, but both wins did come in Hamburg this month. The other match in this quarter sees three players more known in singles and one “doubles specialist” as Brazil and Kazakhstan square off. Monteiro-Wild have exactly two matches together with the last being on grass in an opening round loss at Wimbledon. Bublik-Nedovyesov feature the best doubles player of the bunch in Nedovyesov. The 37-year-old vet has racked up 25 doubles wins in 2024 with 17 on clay. The Kazakh duo last paired in 2022 at the Davis Cup finals with impressive wins over Koolhof-Middelkoop and Ram-Sock. I don’t know if they qualify as a dark horse, but Bublik has more reps in doubles this year that has seen him find the win column more often. Don’t watch Bublik if you want to learn anything about doubles play or positioning, but do watch him if you want to see someone having fun.
I’m not sure what it is but Krajicek-Ram always seem to be missing “something” that prevents them from truly clicking. They flashed promise at the Davis Cup in 2023, but have played deciding sets and super tie breaks quite a bit that leaves them on that fine line too often. If they could find a bit more consistency, they’re certainly medal contenders, but they could also be a duo that a tandem like Bublik-Nedovyesov wind up surprising. If Gonzalez-Molteni get out of round one against Nadal-Alcaraz, I would not expect them to stop short of the semifinals. As much as everyone might love a good run from the super star Spanish pair, I just don’t know that I see it.
Quarter #4
This final section of the draw sees Germans (2)Krawietz-Puetz as the lead seeds. The Germans have been in fine form this Summer with their last three tournaments seeing titles on grass in Halle and clay in Hamburg, along with a quarterfinal finish at Wimbledon. Prior to the Hamburg title, their clay form had been a bit more mediocre at 7-5 with nothing better than a couple of quarterfinals. This is a duo that has been lights out in Davis Cup play with a 10-1 career mark together. That includes a win back in 2021 over the seeds in the other half of this quarter, Salisbury-Skupski. As for their half, Krawietz-Puetz face Medvedev-Safiulin first up. While the Russians did do well at ATP Cup play back in 2022, that was on hard courts where their skills are best suited. On clay, Krawietz-Puetz should have enough to come through round one. That could set them up with Reboul-ERV, who will have the crowd on their side. As good as Bopanna is, his pairing with Balaji looked out of sorts with a loss in their lone prep match in Hamburg against another lesser known German pair who were strong on clay at the Challenger level. I do expect to see Germany vs France in round two.
The other half with Salisbury-Skupski sees them as the only true doubles team in the mix. The other three pairs either have two singles players teaming up or in the case of their round one opponents, Machac-Pavlasek, one singles player and one regular doubles player. I do think the Czechs can give the seeds a run for their money. Machac was a revelation with Zhizhen Zhang to start the year in doubles with an Australian Open semifinal and a title in Marseille. The Czechs do have minimal experience together, but as I said earlier, they’ve been very competitive in those matches. I do wonder if Machac holds up as he’s playing singles and both men’s and mixed doubles, but early on, expect this to be a round one banger with upset potential. The survivor there will be the favorites to go to the quarterfinals. Lorenzo Musetti lost Jannik Sinner as a partner due to his withdrawal, so he winds up paired for the first time with Darderi. They face Chile’s Jarry-Tabilo, who have played just two matches together. One came in ATP Cup play in 2020 and the other in Davis Cup play in 2022. That experience likely gives them an edge and perhaps they’re a bit of a dark horse candidate in this quarter if they continue to show winning chemistry.
I do think this quarter also has some unseeded potential to push for the podium. Reboul-ERV are one of the unseeded unicorns I pointed out to start that will be a tough out. I also like the Machac-Pavlasek combination on this surface to have their chances to score some upsets. Krawietz-Puetz are clearly the team to beat in this quarter however with the Germans having the experience and big match play to carry them through for a medal opportunity.
THE PIG’S DRAW PROJECTION
Q1 QF: (1)Bolelli-Vavassori vs Tsitsi-bros
Q2 QF: Cerundolo-Etcheverry vs Gille-Vliegen
Q3 QF: (6)Gonzalez-Molteni vs (4)Krajicek-Ram
Q4 QF: Machac-Pavlasek vs (2)Krawietz-Puetz
PIGPIX
Bolelli-Vavassori
Gille-Vliegen
Krawietz-Puetz
DOUBLES TOURNAMENT PREVIEWS & PICKS 