WTA Prague Preview

PRAGUE: NOTABLES & TRENDS

*Hibino-Kalishnikova won the titles in Prague last year as firm 1.52 (-192) favorites in the championship match. Their title win was the first for an unseeded pair at this stop since 2019. Last year’s super tie break finish also marked the first time that was needed since 2019. Those are the only two times that the STB finish has occurred in the championship match with the other seven going down in straight sets.

*Super tie breaks were plentiful in 2023 with half of the 14 matches needed the extra set to decide a winner. That was a big difference from 2021 and 2022 that saw just three super tie break finishes each. Those may have been the outliers though with every other run requiring at least six super tie break finishes. I don’t see a definitive pattern of any round being a better place to find STBs over another.

*An interesting note to add for Prague is that the top seeded duo has NEVER won this event. In fact, they’ve made the final just three times in the nine year history of the Prague Open since it moved from an ITF level event to a regular WTA tour stop. Two of those trips to the final for the #1 seeds have come in the last three years. This trend may be put to a stiff test this week with doubles royalty, Krejcikova-Siniakova, coming in as the top seeds in this “home” tournament.

*You can normally find at least one seed getting bounced early in Prague. Last year, two of the four seeds went out in round one. At least one seed has gone out in the opening round each year since 2018.

*Underdogs found five wins in 2023 out of 14 completed matches. The quarterfinals were the home to the two largest hits with the two top seed pairs being dropped in that round. The dogs won at 2.75 (+175) and 3.50 (+250) in those matches. The quarterfinals have been home to a good run of dog scores in Prague with five of the last eight falling in that direction.

RETRO REPRISALS

We’re not focusing on singles pairs this week, but rather on two dynamic and legendary duos that are “getting the band back together” this week.

Krejcikova-Siniakova
The Czech powerhouses pair up for the first time this year after their unexpected split in 2023. It will be their third time playing this “home” stop and surprisingly, they have yet to make a final. 2020 was the last time they played Prague. It will be intriguing to see if they can simply fall right back into the legendary chemistry that reaped seven Grand Slam titles and an Olympic gold medal in 2020. They will also be pairing up again in Paris next week for the Olympics.

Safarova/Mattek-Sands
Talk about a blast from the past! I had not kept up with this return as Lucie Safarova came back to play singles qualifying in Prague and doubles this week after a “mostly” five year absence from the tour. She already crashed out in qualis in singles, so it’s all doubles now. Safarova has played some sporadically in singles and doubles since stepping away from the game in 2018, with four doubles matches combined in 2023 and 2024. The Safarova-BMS combo was a superb one with five Grand Slam titles to their credit, but this will be their first time teaming up since the US Open in 2018. Coincidentally, their final match together that year was a loss to Krejcikova-Siniakova.

Hsieh-Tsao
And while this isn’t a retro combination, anything with Su-wei Hsieh always feels a bit retro and worthy of noting. This week, she’s pairing up with 20-year-old Chia Yi Tsao for the first time. This is another Olympic pairing with the two set to represent Taiwan in Paris. We know of Hsieh’s legendary status, including her mixed doubles title at Wimbledon this month to run her Slam tally to nine, but what of Tsao? The 20-year-old has played plenty of doubles with a 22-9 record alone this year and 95-32 overall across all competitions since 2022. She won the titles in Bastad just last week, already her second doubles titles at the WTA level. They’re going to be a lot of fun to watch, I believe.

SEEDS: ONE AND DONE WATCH (First Match Upset Watch)

(2)Aoyama-Shibahara
They have the task of facing Safarova-BMS in round one. Perhaps that is the best time to catch that duo as rust could be a big reality facing their chances of advancing. Still, the two seeds from Japan have themselves only paired once together in 2024 at the Billie Jean Cup early in the season. They’re adequate on clay at 15-11 in their careers with a French Open quarterfinal run in 2020 as a highlight. Still, if Safarova and Mattek-Sands find that chemistry, this is going to be a difficult opener for the seeds.

(3)Hsieh-Tsao
I’ve got them on the list simply because we have not seen them play together yet. The individual skill sets are obviously there, so it’s probably just a matter of time before they mesh well together. They go up against a pair of Czechs in Kolodziejova-Maleckova, who have plenty of experience together (52-37). They just played an ITF level tournament in Prague as their first together in 2024, scoring a pair of wins before losing in the semifinals. More than half their career wins have come on clay, so it’s a comfortable surface. That said, they’ve mainly done damage at the ITF level, so I’m not sure they compete for the actual win in this spot – but they may well force a super tie break before things settle and you never know what happens in those finishes.

(4)Rosatello-Zimmermann
These two have paired up just four times this year (2-2), their first time together since 2018. They face a pair of Belgians in Kempen-Salden, who have gone 10-3 together in 2024. They’ve played just twice on clay where they split two matches in Bastad last week. Both required super tie breaks, so they’re definitely competitive with similarly ranked/experienced teams. I think that’s what we are looking at with this draw and oddsmakers seem to agree with the match basically set as a “pick ’em” in round one.

DRAW PREVIEW

TOP HALF

All eyes will definitely be in Krejcikova-Siniakova as the top seeds. The titles may not necessarily be a big focus, but getting match time to get their rhythm together again, will be. If a title run comes from that, all the better heading to Paris next week. Their quarter looks the type where they should be able to work out any kinks and advance to the semifinals. Facing a pair of first time teens round one should allow them a chance to get on a roll early. The match opposite of this in quarter one sees familiar partners Fomina-Klot/Yashina against first timers Hon-Sonmez. Fomina-Klot/Yashina have played Prague once before in 2022 and they made the semifinals. They have paired infrequently though with only eight matches together last year and none in 2024. Hon is the more experienced doubles player of her pairing, but has gone 4-10 this year. Sonmez is 2-1 in limited play this year, but has rarely played WTA level doubles events. It’s fair to say that anything short of a semifinal for the top seeds with this set up would be catastrophic.

The second quarter starts with (3)Hsieh-Tsao taking on the Czechs Kolodziejova-Maleckova. I talked up a little of what they’ve done together, but I really feel like once Hsieh-Tsao figure out each other, it should be match over in their favor. And then much like Krejcikova-Siniakova, their set up in this quarter should allow them to find their rhythm together and advance. The match on the other side of the quarter is between two first time pairs with Cascino-Tang and Lechemia-Sharma. Lechemia is the highest ranked player of that quarter at 66, but she’s had trouble finding wins this year at 8-17. Sharma hasn’t played much in doubles this year, but had a solid 2023 at the ITF level (23-12), including a trio of clay court titles. Cascino-Tang have also individually both found doubles success in 2024 at the ITF level with Cascino coming on off a title run on hard courts in Spain last week. Tang has been involved in four finals this year with three wins on hard courts as well. This will all be about who finds better chemistry as the match itself would seem pretty even on paper. The road is a little tougher perhaps for Hsieh-Tsao, but it’s still kind of difficult to see them losing.

BOTTOM HALF

The third quarter looks wide open with (4)Rosatello-Zimmermann far from being heavy favorites to move forward. Kempen-Salden could well get the best of them in round one and it wouldn’t be considered much of an upset really. The other match in this quarter also gives us a pair of teams with limited or no experience together. Von Deichmann-Zavatska are the ones with no time together and both have played just a handful of doubles matches in 2024. Gleason-Perrin at least put in a pair of matches in Palermo last week with a win and a loss. Both are regulars in doubles with Gleason at 16-10 this year and Perrin at 17-18. Both do most of their work on clay as well, so they look to be the pair with a better shot to move through round one. In reality, they might be the duo to look to as far as a semifinal runner in this section.

The final quarter is where the party starts in round one with Aoyama-Shibahara squaring off with Safarova-BMS. The survivor of that one is not only going to be the favorite to get to the semifinals, but really will be expected to grab a spot in the final. The heart wants Safarova-BMS to be that team, but are they the smart pick here? Aoyama-Shibahara have had some solid seasons as a regular pairing in the past, so even with this being only their second match together in 2023, their reps are more recent than those of their opponents. That said, Safarova-BMS were so dominant when they were one and that included a 28-5 record on clay. It’s hard to count them out, even if it’s been nearly six years from their last match. The other match in this quarter features two teams with very limited playing time together. The two Czechs provide some intrigue though as Palicova-Salkova have played this tournament twice together, making the semifinals last year. I’m not sure the 20-year-olds are up to snuff to beat Aoyama-Shibahara or Safarova-BMS, but they should have a chance to find out.

THE PIG’S DRAW PROJECTION

Top Half SF: (1)Krejcikova-Siniakova vs (3)Hsieh-Tsao
Bottom Half SF: Gleason-Perrin vs Safarova-BMS

PIGPIX

Krejcikova-Siniakova
Hsieh-Tsao