ATP Newport Preview

NEWPORT: NOTABLES & TRENDS

*Lammons-Withrow return as the defending champions for this final installment of the Hall of Fame Open. The Americans won the title as 2.10 (+110) underdogs in the final in a super tie break finish over Blumberg-Purcell 6-3, 5-7, 10-5. That marked the third straight run in Newport that the underdog won the championship match.

*William Blumberg has been a fixture in the final the last three seasons. He lost last year with Purcell, won in 2022 with Steve Johnson and won again in 2021 alongside Jack Sock. Blumberg is back again in 2024. This time he’s pairing with his fellow North Carolina Tarheel, Rinky Hijikata. They’ll definitely be an unseeded pair with a big chance to win this week.

*The super tie break finish in 2023 was the first since 2019. Overall, there were eight super tie break finishes in Newport last year out of 15 completed matches. Five of those came in the quarterfinals, semifinals and final combined with three in round one. The STB count last year was double what went down in 2022 and represented the highest number since eight also were needed in 2019.

*Two spots to keep your eyes on for those super tie breaks are round one in matches involving seeds and the semifinals. Last year, two of the three round one super tie breaks involved a seeded pair and seven of the last 13 round one super tie break finishes have been in matches with seeds. As for the semifinals, at least one semi has required a super tie break in five of the last six runs in Newport.

*Underdogs accounted for five wins in 2023 (33%). That included two seeds being dropped in round one with the dogs scoring at 3.45 (+245) and 2.68 (+168). It was a nice uptick from 2022 when only two underdogs won in the entire tournament. I don’t see a specific trend to follow in regards to underdogs, but we always like to look at round one for those matches involving seeds as a place to start.

SINGLES MINGLE

Newport attracts a wide array of players and you definitely see a lot of guys who are more regularly seen at Challegers. It’s one of those tournaments caught between Wimbledon and the traditional hard court swing starting in the U.S. each Summer. Here’s a look at the two odd pairings of singles players this week.

Lestienne-Svajda
Neither of these guys plays doubles much with both having played just three doubles matches each in 2023. They’re combined at 1-5 in those matches. Perhaps the plus here is that Svajda played two of his on grass with Brandon Nakashima at the Surbiton Challenger. Both of those went to super tie breaks as did his other doubles match at the Indian Wells Challenger. Lestienne was far less competitive in his, losing in straights each time mostly in lopsided fashion. I won’t be expecting much from this duo.

Mannarino-Mayot
Another first time pairing here with the two Frenchmen linking up. Both have seen exactly eight doubles matches in 2024 with Mannarino struggling to a 1-7 record. It should be noted that his one match on grass did go to a super tie break at Queen’s Club against Koolhof-Mektic. Mannarino has regularly played doubles in Newport with a 1-4 record. Two of the last three have needed a super tie break finish. Mayot may be a threat with him as he made the Nottingham Challenger final on grass this year with Luke Saville. Half of his eight matches have seen super tie break finishes.

SEEDS: ONE AND DONE WATCH (First Match Upset Watch)

For some reason, this is another tournament that decided to seed half of the 16 team field. That’s just silly, so for my purposes here, I’m looking at the top four seeds.

(2)Cash-Galloway
This pair gets the two Frenchies I just mentioned in Mannarino-Mayot in round one. While Cash-Galloway are clearly more in tune as a pair, it’s always a little tricky seeing how players do bouncing from Wimbledon to this tournament. They had a great grass swing, going 13-3 with titles at the Surbiton Challenger and in Mallorca, not to mention a final in Stuttgart. So why in the world would I put them on this list against guys teaming up for the first time? Just a guess that this could be a little problematic perhaps. Cash-Galloway still enter here as one of the favorites for sure.

(3)Hidalgo-Smith
I’m a fan of JP Smith, but this is a first time pairing against an interesting American duo. Smith has been at his best with Andreas Mies this year, losing six of seven openers with other partners this year. Could that crop up in this spot? Robert Cash and Tracy James are the wild card opponents. They paired once three years ago at a Futures event, but both have had plenty of doubles experience and more so together at Ohio State at the college level. They’ll be interesting to watch with both getting their first taste of doubles at the ATP main draw level.

DRAW PREVIEW

TOP HALF

The top half houses the top seeds and returning champions, Lammons-Withrow. Their opener against Chandrasekar-Kadhe may not necessarily be an upset spot to watch, but that pair has been competitive on grass. They were only 1-3 on the Challenger swing through Great Britain, but three of those four involved a tie break set and only one was a blowout loss. Lammons-Withrow surprisingly had not tie breaks in three rounds at Wimbledon, but their matches here in Newport have always been edgy. Their title run in 2023 was all super tie breaks in four matches, and six of their seven career matches here have seen STBs in the end. It could be tight again.

If they come through, it looks like Seggerman-Trhac are the ones to watch. They’ve been a regular pair for two seasons now. They were an astounding 40-2 across all levels in 2023 with a lot of that in Futures. They’ve stepped up to mainly Challengers now and shown plenty of good results with a title at Nottingham Hill on grass as the most recent of their five titles in 2024. If you want to know how dangerous they might be in this spot: they lost to Purcell-Thompson 6-4, 7-6 in Hertogenbosch in their ATP main draw debut and lost 7-5,7-6 to Cash-Galloway at the Surbiton Challenger. This is a pair that definitely could take advantage of Lammons-Withrow if they continue to play all these tight matches and/or super tie breaks.

The second quarter features Hildalgo-Smith as the three seeds. I mentioned JP Smith’s struggles to get wins without Mies as his partner, so Cash-Tracy may not be without a shot to score a big win. King-Stalder are the ones to watch for me in this quarter. After a huge 2023 (42-16), they struggled in 2024 as they’ve played more ATP main draws. They did get hot of late however, winning the Ilkey Challenger on grass in June. They’re just 3-9 at the ATP level this year, but they did beat Nys-Zielinkski early in the year. I think this is a draw they could take advantage of with two first time pairs in this section and Cash-Tracy with less experience at this level. If Hildalgo-Smith don’t gel well, this is the team I’d favor for the semifinals.

BOTTOM HALF

Blumberg-Hijikata lead the third quarter. The former UNC Tar Heel tandem has played two tournaments together in 2024. They made the final in Dallas indoors and proved tough at Delray Beach with a win over Cabral-Patten, before losing to Gonzalez-Skupski in a super tie break in the quarterfinals. Keep in mind that four of those six matches needed super tie breaks. It’s hard not to like their chances of getting to the semifinals in this section. Goransson-Verbeek are the others to watch. They’ve paired up to an 8-7 record this year, 3-2 on grass. Their work has all come at Challengers, but in this less experienced field, they’ll stick out. Paris-Ramanathan in round one won’t be a cake walk though with that pair having played four matches in Challengers this year, going 2-2 with three needing super tie breaks. Overall, I think this quarter will be pretty competitive even if the “names” aren’t there for most to recognize. Given Blumberg’s success here in particular, it’s still hard to go against that pair to make the semis.

The final quarter finds (2)Cash-Galloway looking to finish off a strong grass court campaign with another title. The Mannarino-Mayot match may or may not be dangerous in the end, but there is another that could loom larger. The Indian combo of Bollipalli-Kaliyanda brings a lot of experience to the quarter. They’ve gone 23-16 at Challengers in 2024, but just 1-3 on grass. Two of those four did need super tie breaks and overall, six of their last eight have needed STB finishes. They’ve won two titles on different surfaces this year, so don’t sleep on them to be competitive. They face the Aussies Saville-Vukic, who have never played together. Saville is a skilled doubles player that you may have forgotten about. He made the Australian Open final in 2020 with Max Purcell. He also made the third round in doubles at both Wimbledon and the French Open in 2021. I’m not sure if he’ll bring Vukic up to snuff to be a threat here, but they could be a sleeper if they grab a win early.

THE PIG’S DRAW PROJECTION

Q1 QF: (1)Lammons-Withrow vs Seggerman-Trhac
Q2 QF: Cash-Tracy vs King-Stalder
Q3 QF: Goransson-Verbeek vs (4)Blumberg-Hijikata
Q4 QF: Bollipalli-Kaliyanda vs (2)Cash-Galloway

PIGPIX

Cash-Galloway
King-Stalder

LAST WEEK’S PIGPIX

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