ATP Wimbledon Preview

 

 

WIMBLEDON: NOTABLES & TRENDS

*Koolhof-Skupski became the third top seeded pair to win Wimbledon since 2016 with their title run last year. They won the championship match as 1.60 (-167) favorites over Granollers-Zeballos. The Koolhof-Skupski win was the seventh in the last eight runs at the All-England Club for the favorite in the title match. Ebden-Purcell were the only underdog winners in a title match in that stretch in 2022 at 2.75 (+175).

*2023 marked the end of best of five in men’s doubles at Wimbledon. The first best of three final saw a straight sets finish 6-4, 6-4. Overall, there were 21 three set finishes in 2023 out of the 62 matches completed. Ten of those came in round one with five more in round two. Perhaps the best trend to follow with these is that 16 of the 21 involved a seeded team’s match with seven of the 16 seeds being involved in a three setter in round one.

*Speaking of seeds, they’ve been very good at avoiding early trouble in recent years. There have not been more than three seeds who have lost in round one since 2018. That said, at least one top five seed has lost in three of the last five runs. Last year, it was (3)Ram-Salisbury upset by Griekspoor-Stevens, who were 6.15 (+515) dogs in that match. Double digit seeds have made a habit of making it to the final. Granollers-Zeballos did it last year as the #15 seeds. A double digit seed has made the final in five of the last six runs at Wimbledon. The last double digit champs were (14)Ebden-Purcell in 2022. The one or two seed has been involved in the final in four straight.

 

*The underdog win for Griekspoor-Stevens was the second largest of the tournament in 2023. Dogs accounted for six wins in round one and 15 total for the tournament. The largest dog score came in the round of 16 when Behar-Pavlasek stunned Mektic-Pavic as 6.79 (+579) dogs. The majority of the dog wins came in the first two rounds (11) with only four more in the following rounds. The number looks pretty steady with 16 dog wins in 2022 and 18 in 2021. The latter stages at Wimbledon haven’t been kind to the dogs with only five of the last 21 matches in the quarterfinals, semifinals and final seeing the favorites lose.

*2021 was the last time we saw an unseeded duo make it as far as the semifinals. It’s been much more likely to see them make it to the quarterfinals. Last year, there were three unseeded pairs in the last eight with multiple unseeded pairs in the quarters in six of he last seven runs at the All-England Club. It’s been few and far between for unseeded duos making the Wimbledon final however with 2016 being the last time we saw one with Julien Benneteay and Eduouard Roger-Vasselin making it that year. The last unseeded champs on the men’s side? That was Vasek Pospisil and Jack Sock in 2014.

*If you’re looking for teams on a heater on grass, you’ve got a few heading into the tournament:

Venus Skupski (8-1, Queen’s Club & Eastbourne winners)
Cash-Galloway (12-2, Mallorca winners)
Bolelli-Vavassori (4-0, Halle winners)

THE UNSEEDED UNICORNS

I’m switching it up this time, so instead of just focusing on the singles stars who paired up, I wanted to look at a group of unseeded pairs who look lethal.

Bhambri-Olivetti
If you follow doubles, you know these two have been dangerous for most of 2024. They’ve racked up a 16-7 record with a title on clay in Munich and another final in Lyon. They’re 3-3 in main draw action on grass this swing. They beat Venus-Skupski in Stuttgart and played both Cash-Galloway and Lammons-Withrow tight in losses.

Mies-Smith
It was nice to see this pair back together again after they had not played together since March. Early in the season, they had plenty of success with a trio of quarterfinals and their best finish, a semifinal on Doha. They came back with a semifinal push on grass in Hertogenbosch. Mies-Smith might be missing a signature win, but they’ve rarely not been competitive when stepping up against the best of the best.

Griekspoor-Stevens
I had to put them back on the list even though they’re 0-4 in 2024. You do see a lot of tight sets though, so it seems like the slim margins have been going against them this year. It’s hard to overlook them however after they beat both Ram-Salisbury and Bolelli-Vavassori during their unexpected quarterfinal run at this tournament in 2023.

Tsitsipas Brothers
The Greeks finally put it together at a Grand Slam with a nice quarterfinal run at the French Open. That broke a four match losing skid they had in ATP events to start 2024. So will the real Tsitsi-bros please stand up in London? I’m intrigued by what they might be able to do with an interesting draw that sees them against (11)Gonzalez-Molteni in round one, a duo that is not that comfortable on grass.

Machac-Zhang
They were flat in their lone grass court match, but I noted at the time that it could have more to do with a team seeing them for the second time this season. That was Nys-Zielinski’s second time getting the singles pair and after a tight loss in a super tie break in Barcelona, it was a 6-3, 6-1 drubbing in Halle. If seeing them a second time is the elixir against the surprising duo who are 15-4 this year, then they could be in trouble in round one playing Behar-Pavlasek for a second time. It’s also not the same Behar-Pavlasek that made the quarterfinals here in 2023 as they’ve dropped six straight.

Heliovaara-Patten
It was a shame that these two had to withdraw from the round of 16 at the French Open as they looked a lethal threat at the time with a 21-3 record on clay. After taking time to heal, Heliovaara’s shoulder looked fine during the duo’s semifinal run this past week in Eastbourne. It’s not a great draw with (5)Bolelli-Vavassori first up, but I think the Italians may be the ones thinking that sort of thing heading in. If they spring the upset in round one, look out.

Matos-Melo
It’s tough to tell exactly what the Brazilians are capable of on grass. On one had, they did win the titles in Stuttgart, but on the other, they did not beat any seeds in that run and needed super tie breaks in three of four matches. They lost to Venus-Skupski 7-6, 6-4 to open in Eastbourne, so they definitely play well enough to keep matches close. If seeding holds and they win, Matos-Melo will be a tricky matchup in round two for Dodig-Krajicek.

Cash-Galloway
They’ve been very good on grass with a dozen wins this Summer. The question is whether they can step up and beat a top ten type of team to make a truly deep run? I do like their draw here with Doumbia-Reboul as the first seeds they’d see if both win in round one. Doumbia-Reboul have beaten them twice early in the year, but I think they’re beatable on this surface. The round of 16 could be a realistic get for these two.

Hijikata-Peers
I’ll probably catch some groans on this one since they face Andy and Jamie Murray in round one, but the Aussies intrigue me a bit more. We know now that this is it for Andy. Doubles or bust as he withdrew from the singles draw on Tuesday. The question is still going to be how his body holds up. Doubles still requires plenty of movement. As for Hijikata-Peers, both are proven winners. Peers has surprised me a bit on the grass swing as he’s paired up with three different partners, but still found some good results. He won the Ilkey Challenger with Marcus Willis and made the Eastbourne final alongside Matthew Ebden. Hijikata only went 1-2 on grass with McDonald one week and Patten the next, but all three matches went to the super tie break. It’s all about chemistry, so let’s see if these two have it in their first tournament.

Frantzen-Jebens
The two Germans play a lot at the Challenger level, but they’ve really stepped up their game at the ATP level in the last few months. They made a semifinal on clay in Geneva and narrowly lost to Matos-Melo in Paris in a third set tie break. On grass, they’ve gone 5-3 with a win over Krawietz-Puetz and tight STB losses to Matos-Melo and Cash-Galloway. They could get a crack at (2)Bopanna-Ebden in round two, a match that I’d expect to be close.

SEEDS: ONE AND DONE WATCH (First Match Upset Watch)

(3)Ram-Salisbury
I put them here because I’m not sure what the status is after they pulled out mid-match in Eastbourne. I’m guessing it was precautionary, but I could not find a listing of what injury may have been suffered. They’re also going up against Blumberg-Ruud who bring plenty of experience to the table. I think at full health they avoid the upset, but that’s the early question for them to answer.

(5)Bolelli-Vavassori
Grass may not be the natural fit for the Italians, but it’s hard to argue that they’re not all-court threats with an 8-3 record on turf over the past two seasons. This is more about who they face with Heliovaara-Patten up first. That is a difficult draw. The Italians may well survive, but they’re going to have to play very well.

(11)Gonzalez-Molteni
They draw the Tsitis-bros as I discussed earlier. The eleven seeds debuted here last year with a win and a loss. They rarely play on grass, so this figures to be a pretty even matchup to me. If the Greeks serve well, they should be in it to win it.

(15)Purcell-Thompson
Listen, I love these guys and they’ve done little to not trust them to win a few. They’re 21-4 overall in 2024 and made the round of 16 here last year. What they have going against them, British support for the wild cards Clarke-Willis. Sure, they’ve rarely played together, but when they have, it’s been pretty magical. Go back to 2017 at this very tournament and you’ll see they upset a legendary duo in Herbert-Mahut en route to the round of 16. They won a Challenger indoors to start 2024, but flopped in a grass court loss at the Ilkey Challenger. Still, you can expect the support to be wild for them and sometimes that helps close the skill gap more than what’s on the court.

DRAW PREVIEW

 

 

Quarter #1
Last year’s runners-up and this year’s top seeds, Granollers-Zeballos, lead the charge in this section. The top seeds chose no grass court prep this year as they head to London looking to make it three for three in playing this event and making the final. They did that in both 2021 and 2023. Don’t be surprised if their early matches are close, even against an inexperienced pair like Fils-Humbert in round one. In their top half, Nys-Zielinski are the other seeds. They’ve struggled on grass the last two years at 4-6 and come in losers in two of three on the surface this year. They should be good enough against first time pair Baez-Brown in round one, but the next round could prove a stumbling point. Hidalgo-Tabilo could be the opponents and if so, that shapes up to be a good one. They unexpectedly made the Mallorica final this past week with wins over regulars Doumbia-Reboul and Lammons-Withrow in the mix. The world’s most interesting pair may be here with Kokkinakis and Shapovalov doing double duty in singles and doubles. Although they have not paired together previously, they’ve both got the big game that can be trouble on this surface. They could be a compeling second round matchup for Granollers-Zeballos.

The other half of this quarter has two seeds who had success here in 2023. Krawietz-Puetz made the semifinals in their first time in London, while Lammons-Withrow made the quarterfinals. Both did some good work in the prep tournaments, so they’ll be expecting to be in the mix for deep runs again. Starting with Krawietz-Puetz, round two is where I’d pay attention. That could be Bhambri-Olivetti, a team with the power to keep matches tight and potentially steal sets in tie breaks. Krawietz-Puetz might not mind tie breaks as they went 4-1 in breakers during the grass swing this Summer. I like Lammons-Withrow’s set up in the opposite section, but McDonald-Shelton could be a bogey in that section. The Americans paired up eight times in 2023, including an opening loss here to Nys-Zielinski. They might be better suited to a true upset chance on a hard surface, but with Lammons-Withrow’s propensity for tie breaks it might hinge on a couple key points. Lammons-Withrow have played eight tie breaks in eight grass court matches this swing, going 4-4. The seeded American duo won the titles in Hertogenbosch to start the grass season and scored a semifinal berth in Mallorca this past week. They also own a win over Krawietz-Puetz on their least preferred surface, clay, so that’s a big feather in their cap with grass playing better to their serves.

Lammons-Withrow play with maybe the slimmest of margins with the great serves and not so great return games leading to a lot of tight matches. It’s a risk to pick them because of that, but I really think their draw is laid out to where they can match their quarterfinal berth of a year ago. Even with their lack of grass prep, Granollers-Zeballos look tough here. They’ve already beaten Nys-Zielinski and Lammons-Withrow twice each this season on clay. The top seeds beat both Krawietz-Puetz and Lammons-Withrow here last year in straights en route to the final.

Quarter #2
It’s Ram-Salisbury leading the top half of this quarter with Purcell-Thompson as the other seeds. Wimbledon had been good to Joe and Rajeev until last year when they suffered their first opening round loss in London. They had made the semifinals each of the previous two years. It’s tough to chart out their potential here due to the retirement at Eastbourne, but if they arrive at full health, they will have a chance. There are some tough matchups waiting though with Blumberg-Ruud capable of pushing them in round one and perhaps Mies-Smith in round two as an even larger threat. Opposite of this, the 15th seeded Aussies Purcell-Thompson are easy to like. Their 21-4 record this year dictates that much. I do think they will be in trouble though with the Brits Clarke-Willis in round one and then perhaps Griekspoor-Stevens in round two. That all-Dutch pair was responsible for the Ram-Salisbury loss in round one in 2023, and they wound up in the quarterfinals. As much as I love the Aussies, I’m not sure they get into position to contend for a quarterfinal. Most might look to Griekspoor-Steven after their run here last year, but don’t sleep on Clarke-Willis. The Brits will get a mountain of support and have proven they have good chemistry.

In the bottom half, it’s Koolhof-Mektic and Gonzalez-Molteni as the seeds. Koolhof is playing Wimbledon for the final time as he already announced his intention to retire at the end of 2024. He’s a defending champion coming in, albeit with a different partner. Both Koolhof and Mektic have had plenty of success on grass with other partners, so they’ll be ones to watch still. They made the Hertogenbosch final before losing to Lammons-Withrow and then fell to Arevalo-Pavic at Queen’s Club in the quarters. I don’t know that they will hold up against the truly elite in this draw, but with this quarter, they have a nice early road that should put them in position to fight for a quarterfinal. That’s something they did not do in Australia or France. Gonzalez-Molteni could be one and done against the Tsitsipas brothers. If not, round two yields perhaps an even tougher match with Machac-Zhang or 2023 Wimbledon quarterfinalists Behar-Pavlasek. I’d look at the survivor of that one as having the better shot to go against Koolhof-Mektic most likely in the round of 16. I’m fascinated to see if any of the luster is starting to wear off of Machac-Zhang, who have had a surprising and phenomenal go of it in doubles in 2024.

If there is a quarter that produces an unseeded semifinal participant, perhaps this is the one. There are some quality unseeded duos in this section, yet none of them arrive with much to talk about. Machac-Zhang. Behar-Pavlasek. Griekspoor-Stevens. They’re all on multiple match losing skids coming to London. Perhaps it’s an unheralded team like Mies-Smith who got some nice wins in Hertogenbosch and have proven to be a tough out against everyone in spite of winning just 13 of 24 overall. If this quarter goes to a seed, it could well be Koolhof-Mektic taking advantage of a smoother draw than the other seeds. There is potential for them to not face another seeded duo on the path to the final four, the same of which could be said really for any of the seeds. I think this quarter is going to be a bit chaotic.

 

 

Quarter #3
Two of the hottest teams on tour lead the way here with French Open champions Arevalo-Pavic and French Open runners-up, Bolelli-Vavassori. Let’s start with Arevalo-Pavic who were solid in semifinal runs at both Queen’s Club and Eastbourne on grass. They have won 23 of their last 29 matches and look well set up for a run at Wimbledon. It might be unseeded Cash-Galloway who provide the toughest competition for them en route to a quarterfinal. Escobar-Nedovyesov are another unseeded pair to keep eyes on here. They did not play any grass prep together, but they did have a 7-3 record on grass in 2023. They lost 6-4, 7-6 to Bolelli-Vavassori in round one and 6-4, 6-4 to Mektic-Pavic in Eastbourne. Cash-Galloway already had one crack at Arevalo-Pavic on grass, losing 6-4, 6-4 to them at Queen’s Club. All in all, given how well the French Open champs have played the last few months on both surfaces, it would be surprising in this draw if they did not make the quarters.

Bolelli-Vavassori have a much more challenging draw as they enter Wimbledon as the #1 doubles team in the year-end race. They hold a lead of 140 points on Arevalo-Pavic and 270 over Bopanna-Ebden, who are third just ahead of Granollers-Zeballos. The Italians are in immediate danger in this part with Heliovaara-Patten first up. That pair has been undeniably good since forming after Heliovaara split with John Peers early in the season. They’re 23-4 together, 2-1 on grass. I’m expecting a very tight match and it’s a 50-50 call to me. The winner will be expected to move into the round of 16 with a better matchup waiting in round two. The bottom portion of this half has (10)Dodig-Krajicek as the other seeds. Wimbledon hasn’t been too kind to them with the pair forced out of the 2022 version in round three due to sickness and losing in round two in 2023. They’ve been mediocre since making the Miami final in March, losing four of their last seven. Barrientos-Cabral are no pushovers in round one, but a pair they should get past on this surface. Round two could be a banger if it’s Matos-Melo in that spot. If Bolelli-Vavassori emerge unscathed from their round one clash, I think they’ll push through this section. If not, then it’s really open with Heliovaara-Patten and Matos-Melo have unseeded potential for deep runs.

I’d love to see a fourth installment of Arevalo-Pavic against Bolelli-Vavassori. The Italians are 0-3 and were obviously very disappointed to lose in Paris in June, but tennis writes some cool stories that you don’t expect. I’d take the Italians if it comes down to that as it would feel like maybe it’s just their time to finally get that break through win. I think it’s down to those two , it or Heliovaara-Patten if they win as far as who gets a shot at the semifinals. Dodig-Krajicek for me have just not had the “it” factor this year with a pair of disappointing second round exits at both Slam events so far.

Quarter #4
The final quarter has Bopanna-Ebden leading the way as they look to battle back for that top spot in the rankings after losing it during the clay swing. While the Australian Open champs have fallen off some since winning in Melbourne, they have been great at both Slams with a French Open semifinal also on their resume. Last year, they made the semis here in London and this draw may at least give them a shot to get into the last eight. The first tricky spot for them likely is round two against Frantzen-Jebens. Those two have been solid on grass and they like Bopanna-Ebden, tend to play a lot of tie breaks. They’ve played eight matches on grass with six involving at least one tie break, while Bopanna-Ebden have had at least one tie break set in seven of their 12 career matches on grass. Small margins seem likely to decide that one and that can be a spot where the seeds falter. If they get past that, then they look like they should get to the quarters. I’d keep an eye on Glasspool-Rojer opposite of them. They lost three of four in grass prep, but also played super tie break finishes in three of four. They’re competitive and perhaps would benefit from playing a full set for a decider rather than the STB.

The other half houses the hottest team on grass in (9)Venus-Skupski along with (5)Gonzalez and Roger-Vasselin. Venus-Skupski have won eight straight coming into the tournament with the title runs in both Queen’s Club and Eastbourne. Things have simply clicked for this pair and I guess they have Jamie Murray to thank for it. Murray’s status as the director at Queen’s Club took him out of play in that tournament and then he had already committed to Andy for Wimbledon, leaving Venus open for a partner. Enter Neal Skupski and the rest is history. The big intrigue is that if Andy can go, Venus-Skupski could play the Murrays in round two. I’m still not sure how much Andy’s body has to give, so Hijikata-Peers might be the safer bet. Up top, Gonzalez-ERV could not have hand drawn a better early path. They haven’t really locked in since reforming with just a 5-6 mark, but they have the experience edge over all the other teams in their proximity. Eubanks-King might be one to watch as an unseeded danger in this section. King won the Ilkey Challenger titles with Reese Stalder, and Eubanks’ serve can be a nightmare for opponents on grass. The seeds look best in this part, but I do think Hijikata-Peers or the Murrays are one of those dangerous floater types.

I’ve been on the Venus-Skupski train for a few weeks now and I’m not getting off. I said it when they won Queen’s Club, if they continue to serve at a high level, they’re a threat to win any title on this surface. Given their confidence level right now, they should be in position to battle for a spot in the final four. Bopanna-Ebden would be the odds-on favorites to face them in a quarterfinal, but I would not be shocked if they got beat by Frantzen-Jebens or perhaps Glasspool-Rojer.

THE PIG’S DRAW PROJECTION

Q1 QF: (1)Granollers-Zeballos vs (12)Lammons-Withrow
Q2 QF: Mies-Smith vs (7)Koolhof-Mektic
Q3 QF: (5)Bolelli-Vavassori vs (4)Arevalo-Pavic
Q4 QF: (9)Venus-Skupski vs Glasspool-Rojer

PIGPIX

Venus-Skupski
Granollers-Zeballos

LAST WEEK’S PIGPIX