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WIMBLEDON: NOTABLES & TRENDS

*Su-wei Hsieh has been involved with the winning team at Wimbledon in three of the last four runs of this tournament. Last year, Hsieh-Strycova won the titles for the second time in four years (2019). They were 2.26 (+126) underdogs in the championship match against Hunter-Mertens. The duo were the first unseeded champs on the women’s side since the Williams sisters in 2016.

*The final finished in straight sets for the third time in the last four at the All-England Club. All four quarterfinals, both semifinals and the final went down in straights. There were still quite a few three set finishes with 18 of the 61 completed matches needing the deciding set. Fifteen of the 18 three set matches came in rounds one and two. Half of the 18 three set finishes involved seeded teams.

*Seeds had a tough early go last year with five losing in round one. Three of those were in the top eight marking eight top eight seeds losing over the last three years. As you can see from the grid below, unseeded teams have positioned themselves well recently in making the quarterfinals or better. Last year, six unseeded pairs were among the final eight in London:

*While big names have won recently at Wimbledon, the top seeded duo has not. It’s been nearly a decade since the #1 pair won the titles. That came in 2015 when Hingis-Mirza took home the titles. Since then, only one top seed has even made the final. That was Mertens-Zhang in 2022. Perhaps Hsieh-Mertens are he curse breakers, but it’s something to think on as we head into the tournament.

*Unseeded teams may not necessarily be involved in the final every year here, but they’ve made a habit of getting to the semifinals. Two of the last three years have seen multiple unseeded duos in the final four. Only one of the last seven runs in Wimbledon have seen all seeds in the semifinals.

*Underdogs won 18 times in 2023. There were four massive hits at 4.00 (+300) or better with three coming in round one. Two of those three came against three seeds, but the largest of 5.68 (+468) involved the unseeded pair of Dabrowski-Krunic losing their opener. Not surprisingly, nine of the dogs barked in round one with the highest volume of matches played (32). The majority (14) of the dog wins came in rounds one and two combined.

THE UNSEEDED UNICORNS

Minnen-Watson
An upset of Dabrowski-Routliffe in Birmingham is enough to get you excited about their possibilities on grass. They’ve only played eight matches together in 2024, but a 6-2 record shows their worth as trouble makers. Don’t forget they beat Hsieh-Mertens in Brisbane very early in the year. You’ll definitely see Kenin and Mattek-Sands on upset watch in round one.

Azarenka-Badosa
It was a shame we didn’t get to see more of this pair in Berlin due to a withdrawal, but they did win their opener. That showed the chemistry they had back in 2022 when they paired in Adelaide for a few wins was still around. They’re in a section where the seeds both look beatable of late, so if they stick in the draw, this team could be terrifying for their opponents.

Mihalikova-Nicholls
They’ve won four of six on grass and Mihalikova in particular has been pretty solid on grass since last year. She has been to the Hertogenbosch final two straight years with two partners and also made the round of 16 last year at Wimbledon with Hruncakova. They have Schuurs-Stefani to start, but the seeds have lost two straight on grass. An upset early opens the door for a potential round of 16 run.

Navarro-Parry
Boy do I really like what this pair could be. Two young players who fit the “singles pair” moniker, but have already shown prowess in doubles. Navarro made the French quarters with Schnaider, including a beat down of Hsieh-Mertens. Parry made the Nottingham final on grass with Dart and then switched up to pair with Nicholls in Bad Homborg for an upset of Siniakova-Townsend. If they mesh well, they’re in an interesting spot in the draw with seeds who don’t look particularly like contenders.

Wang-Zheng
While their opener is against French vets Garcia-Mladenovic, it’s Wang-Zheng who look a much better bet on grass. Garcia-Mladenovic haven’t played on grass since 2016. Wang-Zheng are 19-4 when paired up since 2023 and recently won the titles on grass in Berlin. They’re in the same section as Navarro-Parry, so it’s an open part of the quarter, where a quarterfinal certainly isn’t out of the question.

Bucsa-Hibino
This is a complete unknown as they have not paired up previously, but Bucsa has become an under-the-radar “can win with anyone” type for me. She’s won titles with three different partners in 2024 and has a Slam quarterfinal (Australia) under her belt to boot. Hibino has had off and on success in doubles for years, but seems to find her best results when playing a complimentary role. That could be this pair, but we’ll take a wait and see attitude on them as far as any deep run potential.

Kostyuk-Ruse
If you overlook these two, you need a brain check. They mostly play Grand Slams and the more prestiguous tournaments, hence their 20-10 career mark over three years. In that span, they’ve made two Slam semifinals and another quarterfinal. Grass is the unknown as last year’s Wimbledon debut was their first time on the surface. They split a pair of matches. Ideally, clay is their best surface, but I expect they’ll be a pain for (13)Olmos-Panova in round one and perhaps beyond for the rest of the field.

SEEDS: ONE AND DONE WATCH (First Match Upset Watch)

(5)Errani-Paolini
This is purely speculative on my part because the Italians are better suited to other surfaces I think. They lost their first grass court match together in Eastbourne, 11-9 in a super tie break. They’ll face an all-British pair in Dart-Lumsden who scored a couple wins on grass in prep work. That included a win over Schuurs-Stefani.

(6)Schuurs-Stefani
I touched on this one in the unseeded unicorns section above as they face off with Mihalikova-Nicholls in round one. The six seeds have split four matches on grass with an opening round loss to Dart-Lumsden in Eastbourne as their last. That was their fourth loss in an opener in ten tournaments in 2024.

(7)Dolehide-Krawczyk
They’re 0-2 on grass and now have five opening round losses for the year. While Aoyama-Krunic haven’t been great this year at 8-11, they have experience at Slams and split two matches at their Wimbledon debut in 2019. Given that Dolehide-Krawczyk’s losses on grass were not to pairs that are rate much more than their first round opponents here, I do want to see if they can prove they can win on the surface before I feel more comfortable about them.

(13)Olmos-Panova
The seeds dropped both their grass court prep matches and face a Slam-tough tandem in Kostyuk-Ruse in round one. They’ve lost five openers in eight tournaments played in 2024, so it’s a bit concerning I think heading into this one for them. This is probably one that I like the best for a seed to go one and done.

(14)Kenin-BMS
A tough opener awaits the Americans with Minnen-Watson as the opponents. Their opponents have proven tough in limited play, so this opener on grass looks like one that could go either way. Kenin-BMS have only lost their opener once in six tournaments this year, so there is that on their side. Going against them is that they have yet to pair up on this surface, so I do think an upset is possible.

DRAW PREVIEW

Quarter #1
We have perhaps the two best teams on grass in the same quarter with (1)Hsieh-Mertens and (9)Kichenok-Ostapenko. We start with the top seed’s half of the draw. Hsieh-Mertens cruised through their tune-up tournament in Birmingham with four straight sets wins. They’re 12-1 in their careers on grass included the 2021 Wimbledon title. Their half of the quarter looks good for them early before some potential landmines starting in round three. That’s where they look likely to see the winner of the R1 clash between (14)Kenin-BMS and Minnen-Watson. Kenin-BMS have already proven to be thorns in the sides of Hsieh-Mertens with a win over them in Miami and a narrow 11-9 loss in a super tie break in Rome. And I told you earlier that Minnen-Watson own a win over them too from very early in the year. While Hsieh-Mertens are in better form now, the confidence is going to be there for one of those two teams if they get another chance. The quarterfinal should be elite viewing.

The other half of the quarter is intriguing with Errani-Paolini and Gauff-Pegula as the seeds. Yes, both are dangerous and capable of winning the tournament if they find their rhythm. That is the BIG question for the 11th seeded Americans. Gauff-Pegula were juggernauts in 2023, but they have not looked the same in limited play (2-3) due to Pegula’s injury. They had to work hard to get to round three here last year, so I’m not too keen on them making a big run. That said, if they can click again, they should at-minimum be in the round of 16. As for Errani-Paolini, they have a tough road. They start with British wild cards Dart-Lumsden and then could likely see Azarenka-Badosa in round two if all things are equal. They may elude an early upset in round one, but I’d like Azarenka-Badosa in round two. They’re the duo I think could make that unseeded run to the quarters in this section. I’d be a bit surprised to see a seed come out of this half, unless Gauff-Pegula find the magic touch again, but that might be a long shot surprisingly.

Quarter #2
Kichenok-Ostapenko are looking to make some noise after a disappointing early exit in round one in 2023. They looked primed to make another deep run (2022 SF), but fell to the Brits Dart-Watson. They come in hot again off the titles in Eastbourne AND have a draw that should see them in contention for a quarterfinal. Who they play there could be the answer to whether or not they’ll be true contenders. You have Schuurs-Stefani in their half of this quarter and they’ve been up and down so far on grass. Mahlikova-Nicholls in round one are the dark horses to watch for me. I think I’d still like Kichenok-Ostapenko over them in a potential round of 16 showdown, but it’d be even sweeter for them to avoid a seed. Kichenok-Ostapenko are 18-3 on grass together.

In the other half, Siniakova-Townsend and Eiker-Neel are the seeds. I was excited to see Siniakova-Townsend as a pair, but they are just 2-2 together this year. Still, this section is void of true unseeded trouble for me, so they are the favorites to push through. Eiker-Neel are respectable on grass with a title in Birmingham last year and a 2-2 mark in 2024. The one duo to watch that we don’t know enough about yet is Fernandez-Shibahara. Those are two quality players, but they’ve paired up just once with a loss in 2024 on grass. This still feels like a spot where Siniakova-Townsend might live up to my loftier expecations for them, and at least be in the mix for a quarterfinal.

I like the Kichenok-Ostapenko draw in this quarter much better than Hsieh-Mertens, but the top seeds are royalty and should be revered as such until proven otherwise. I’d love to see those two fight for a spot in the semifinals, but I’m not sure this draw is going to cooperate. The seed that could sneak into the semifinal mix is (4)Siniakova-Towsend. Bet against the Czech super star at your own risk. The two unseeded pairs for me that are the danger duos are Minnen-Watson and Azarenka-Badosa. They may not make it through this quarter, but I think one or both will have a lot to say about who else does or does not.

Quarter #3
Let’s start with the Bad Homborg champs’ half as Melichar-Martinez/Perez got a much needed confidence boost last week in Germany. They had not won back-to-back matches since winning the titles on clay in Llieda in early May. That changed last week as they pushed their record to 6-2 on grass. Wimbledon wasn’t kind to them last year with a first round exit, but they did make a quarterfinal back in 2022. I think this draw gives them a chance to grab at least a couple of wins. The duo I’m curious to see more from are Babos-Kichenok. Back in the day, Babos has made the Wimbledon final twice, once in 2014 with Mladenovic and then again in 2016 with Shvedova. If Babos-Kichenok start to click, then the MM-Perez should be on alert in round two. Muhammad-Sutjiadi are the other seeds in this half. While they may not be contenders, they’ve proven competent on multiple surfaces and did go 3-2 in grass prep with a win over Errani-Paolini in Eastbourne. They’re the sort that could sit back and potentially take advantage of the draw opening up with some upsets.

The other half features 2023 semifinalists Bouzkova-Sorribes Tormo. Yeah, in case you forgot, those two made the semis here a year ago. They haven’t looked as clean in 2024, but experience can always be helpful. I do think round two is going to be tough for them to conquer however with either Wang-Zheng or Garcia-Mladenovic waiting. I’ve talked up Wang-Zheng a lot during this grass swing, so you know they’re the duo that I’m looking at to blow up this section. With Dolehide-Krawczyk on the struggle bus in the other section of this half, a team like Wang-Zheng could surprise here and be in position to challenge for a semifinal. I don’t doubt that Dolehide-Krawczyk could figure out the winning formula on grass, but the confidence from a strong finish to the clay swing appears to be lacking. An early win would help over Aoyama-Krunic and then perhaps they’re locked in from that point forward. Navarro-Parry are still a team I want to see in this section. They may amount to nothing, but an early win and some developing chemistry could make them a terror in this draw.

This quarter is pretty wide open to me. While Melichar-Martinez/Perez arrive in good form, they’ve had their struggles this season with consistency. The Bouzkova-Sorribes Tormo partnership isn’t quite clicking like it was in 2023, so what do we make of things? There’s no dominant seed on this surface in this quarter, but certainly all very capable of getting a spot in the final four. My dark horses in this quarter are Wang-Zheng and then I really think keep eyes on Navarro-Parry and Babos-Kichenok. I think there’s a fairly good shot that this quarter could see an unseeded team competing for that spot in the last four.

Quarter #4
The final quarter has some very strong seeds led by (2)Dabrowski-Routliffe. The two seeds have been on fire on grass this swing at 7-2 with titles in Nottingham and a tough luck loss in the Eastbourne final to Kichenok-Ostapenko in a super tie break. They did have a disappointing opening loss to Minnen-Watson in between, but mostly have looked the part of a contender on this surface. An intriguing speed bump for them could be Brazilians Gamarra-Haddad Maia in round two. The Brazilians have only paired twice this year and lost both, but have been a very tough out. They lost to Wang-Zheng in a super tie break in Berlin. If Dabrowski-Routliffe succumb to an early loss, that’d be the spot perhaps. Olmos-Panova are the other seeds in this half, but probably the weakest of this quarter’s quartet. Despite making the French Open quarterfinals, they’ve mostly struggled and I think would be fortunate to beat Slam veterans Kostyuk-Ruse in round one. That’s the pair to watch here; experience and Slam success is on their side.

The final piece of the puzzle has Krejcikova-Siegemund and Chan-Kudermetova as seeds. Chan-Kudermetova have quietly been a buzz saw this year at 15-5. That includes back to back finals in Berlin and Bad Homborg. Krejcikova-Siegemund have the better draw for me, but can they take advantage? They’ve shown plenty of spark in 2024 at 14-4 overall with an Australian Open quarterfinal and Madrid final as their highlights. They only got two matches in on grass and were outclassed by Kichenok-Ostapenko on straights last time out. Still, this draw looks to have them on a collision course with Chan-Kudermetova for that quarterfinal spot. Bucsa-Hibino as that unseeded pair I want to see more from, but I’m not sure they’re going to be up to snuff against either of those two seeds. I’d be fairly surprised to not see one of the seeds grab that spot in the final eight.

Dabrowksi-Routliffe will feel like favorites heading into this based on their grass prep runs, but Chan-Kudermetova are right on their heels as far as form. And if we’re talking pure talent, Krejcikova-Siegemund might just be the best of the bunch. That makes for a fascinating quarter where the one outsider I think you must be aware of is Kostyuk-Ruse. All they’ve proven at Grand Slams is that you don’t want to play them.

THE PIG’S DRAW PROJECTION

Q1 QF: (1)Hsieh-Mertens vs Azarenka-Badosa
Q2 QF: (4)Siniakova-Townsend vs (9)Kichenok-Ostapenko
Q3 QF: (15)Muhammad-Sutjiadi vs Wang-Zheng
Q4 QF: (12)Chan-Kudermetova vs (2)Dabrowski-Routliffe

PIG PIX

Kichenok-Ostapenko
Dabrowski-Routliffe