BERLIN: NOTABLES & TRENDS
*Caroline Garcia & Luisa Stefani were champions in Berlin in 2023 as 2.30 (+130) underdogs in the title match. It was the beginning of a superb grass swing for the pair as they also made the quarterfinals at Wimbledon. The win for the pair is the only time an unseeded duo has won the titles in Berlin since it switched to grass in 2021.
*The title match last year required a super tie break finish, the second time in the brief three year history of this event on the green stuff. Last year’s run saw six super tie break finishes overall out of 14 matches. Four of those came in round one out of the eight matches in that round. There have been at least five super tie break finishes in each of the three years in Berlin. Round one seems like the place to focus if you’re looking for those with ten of the 17 super tie break finishes in Berlin’s grass court history coming in the opening round.
*Underdogs hit at a nice clip in 2023 with five total out of the 14 completed matches. The largest scores came in round one with hits of 4.38 (+338) and 3.90 (+290). Overall, four of the five dogs that barked last year, did so in the opening round. Only one involved a seed losing. Round one is also a good place to look at for the dog scores with ten of the 13 underdog wins since 2021 coming in that round.
*Seeds have generally done a good job avoiding early trouble with only two of the 12 seeded pairs in Berlin’s history losing their opener. That said, unseeded pairs have still made their presence known at this tournament. Each year, two unseeded duos have made it to the semifinals and twice, there has been an unseeded pair in the final.
*The big news in Berlin this week is the reformation of the Gauff-Pegula duo. They’ll pair up for the first time since Miami and will be playing just their fifth match of the season together. Gauff has been on fire in doubles play with different partners during Pegula’s injury absence, winning ten of her last eleven matches. That run was highlighted of course with the doubles titles at Roland Garros alongside Siniakova.
SINGLES MINGLE
With the surface switch to grass, we do have a couple of “singles pairs” in the draw this week. In addition to Gauff-Pegula, here’s a look at the other big one:
Azarenka-Badosa
These two get into the draw with a wild card entry to pair up for the first time since 2022. They showed instant chemistry back then in Adelaide, winning a pair of matches before withdrawing. Suprisingly, this is Azarenka’s first doubles match of the season, while Badosa has played just one. She teamed up with Ons Jabeur for a win in Stuttgart on clay. Azarenka has a great history in Berlin. Vika paired with Sabalenka back in 2022 for a title run, so this pair really intrigues me.
SEEDS: ONE AND DONE WATCH (First Match Upset Watch)
(2)Schuurs-Stefani
The second seeds scored eight of their 13 wins this year in the Australian swing. They are only 5-6 since then, so a first round date against Krawczyk-Vondrousova looks like a challenge. This pair was also a late withdrawal at Roland Garros I believe due to an injury to Stefani. She obviously had a nice time here a year ago in winning the titles with Garcia, but this might be more harsh. I have more on Krawczyk and Vondrousova below in the draw preview.
(3)Kichenok-Kichenok
Their opener isn’t going to be easy with Eiker-Neel up first. That’s a battled tested duo that has played quite a bit together during the clay court swing. The Kichenoks didn’t take long to find that sister-sister connection when they played their lone tournament in Charleston this Spring. They may well get through this one, but it could be a battle with both capable of grass court success.
(4)Gauff-Pegula
The Americans were only 2-2 in limited play early in the year, so it will be interesting to see if they can find that chemistry that made them a top doubles duo in 2023. Their opener is one to see doubles royalty, Katerina Siniakova, pairing up with 19-year-old Linda Noskova for the first time. Siniakova has been brilliant on grass in her doubles career with a 29-10 record. That includes a Berlin title with Krejcikova in 2022 and a finals appearance last year with Vondrousova. Noskova is just 5-9 in doubles this year, but she hasn’t had a partner like this in the past. I’m eager to see if the Czechs mesh and can be a contender this week.
DRAW PREVIEW
TOP HALF
Melichar-Martinez/Perez have now gone four straight tournaments without winning back to back matches following their title run in Lleida. They do have the advantage of playing on grass last week, but is the confidence there right now? This isn’t the easiest draw although they should have the advantage over Aoyoma-Wu, who are teaming up for the first time. The question for me is whether they could win that next match with both Olmos-Panova and Chan-Kudermetova posing a threat. Chan-Kudermetova walloped them on clay in Stuttgart earlier in the year 6-2, 6-2. Both will be playing their first match on grass this swing. It’s hard to know which one will transition better, but Olmos-Panova did look good in making the French Open quarterfinals last time out. The top seeds would seem to be just a bit better suited to grass perhaps, but nothing looks certain in this quarter.
This second quarter is going to be fun. You’ve got Gauff-Pegula as the seeds, Azarenka-Badosa with a rare pairing and Siniakova looking to elevate a younger partner. The starter between Gauff-Pegula and Siniakova-Noskova could well shape who wins this quarter. I do wonder how the long layoff will effect the Americans who were not in the best form together early in the season. There’s no doubt their games play well on grass as they won four of five matches last year on the surface. Siniakova-Noskova look boom or bust in this spot. Siniakova is obviously a top tier doubles player already in her career and she helped win Gauff a Slam championship in Paris. Can she bring Noskova up to another level where these two are contenders? Certainly, but until we see it, we do not know. The real wild cards in this quarter could win up being Azarenka-Badosa who have a winnable opener and may well have that natural chemistry necessary for a run. Remember, they won both matches they played together way back in early 2022. If they had a bit tougher early matchup, you might worry about their prospects, but I think that one allows them to find that chemistry and perhaps be a real menace the rest of the way.
BOTTOM HALF
This third quarter also features a variety of duos that could emerge as semifinalists. The Kichenok sisters have that natural flow that is always tough to match. They do face a team in Eikeri-Neel who have plenty of experience and do have success on grass from last year in Nottingham. This could be a case where the Kichenoks get better matchups as they progress, IF they progress. The other pairing in this section features the Brazilians Gamarra-Haddad Maia and veterans Wang-Zheng. Wang-Zheng have had great chemistry in their runs together, now it’s just a question of if they can do it on grass. The Gamarra-HM duo has played just once this season, but they were competitive in their loss in Madrid. That was their first match together in four years, so there was bound to be some rust. Can they pop off with a win to start? Haddad Maia has a pretty nice track record on grass with multiple partners, so I think it’s possible. Even though they might have the best natural chemistry, I think I might be surprised if the seeds actually get through this quarter.
Schuurs-Stefani are the seeds in the final quarter, but draw a potentially rough one against Krawczyk-Vondrousova. The plus is that those two have never paired up, but the minus is they’re both very skilled doubles players that can put it together quickly. I mentioned earlier that Schuurs-Stefani have fallen off greatly since a hot start and they do have a trio of one and dones amongst their last six tournaments played. This is a difficult spot for them. I definitely rate the survivor of that one as the favorite to get through this quarter. I don’t have a lot of confidence in Hozumi-Ninomiya who have only won back to back matches in one of their last seven tournaments. They did get a match in on grass in Hertogenbosch last week, a loss, so perhaps that gives them a leg up to start in Berlin. They face off with Germans Neimeier-Noha, who won their lone match together last year at this tournament. They’re heavy underdogs in that opener, but such was the case last year as well when they won their opener as 3.90 (+290) dogs.
THE PIG’S DRAW PROJECTION
Q1 QF: (1)Melichar-Martinez/Perez vs Olmos-Panova
Q2 QF: Noskova-Siniakova vs Azarenka-Badosa
Q3 QF: Wang-Zheng vs (3)Kichenoks
Q4 QF: Niemeir-Noha vs Krawczyk-Vondrousova
PIG PIX
Azarenka-Badosa
Krawczyk-Vondrousova
Catch me on “X” @tennispig any time to talk doubles and yes, I’ll still give a singles opinion when you ask. Look for PIGPIX posted daily and let’s get people to #WatchMoreDoubles
DOUBLES TOURNAMENT PREVIEWS & PICKS 