QUEEN’S CLUB: NOTABLES & TRENDS
*Dodig-Krajicek are your defending champions in London. They won the 2023 title match as the second seeds, and 1.23 (-434) favorites over the singles pair Fritz-Lehecka. A seed has now won the title at Queen’s Club in 12 of the last 13 runs of this tournament. Feliciano Lopez and Andy Murray were the last unseeded champions in 2019. Last year’s super tie break finish was the third one needed in the last four title matches played at QC.
*Super tie breaks were littered throughout the 2023 version of the Cinch Championships with seven of the 15 matches needing extra tennis to settle the score. Four of the seven came in round one with two more in the quarterfinals. There were also seven super tie breaks needed in 2022.
*Although seeds have ruled the roost as far as winning the titles, unseeded duos have made plenty of noise at the business end of the tournament. Last year, there were two unseeded pairs in the final four with Fritz-Lehecka making the final. That marked the fourth straight run in London that an unseeded pair had made the final and six of the last seven runs overall.
*Underdogs accounted for four wins last year with the high mark coming at 3.07 (+207) when Fritz-Lehecka bounced (1)Koolhof-Skupski in the semifinals. The other three hits ranged from 2.13 (+113) to 2.42 (+142). Three of the four dog hits involved a seed losing. That was almost a carbon copy of 2022, where there were also four underdog wins. The biggest again coming in the semfinals at 3.06 (+206) with three of the four again involving a seed losing.
*Since the doubles draw condensed to 32 pairs in 2022, one seed has lost their opener each of the last two seasons. Both times, the culprits were “singles pairs” with Fritz-Lehecka taking out (4)Nys-Zielinski last year and de Minaur-Norrie eliminating (3)Koolhof-Skupski in 2022. Both of those upsets required a super tie break finish.
SINGLES MINGLE
Despite the small field here, there are A LOT of singles pairing up this week in London. Let’s take a look:
Fritz-Khachanov
This is a first time pairing, but one that could be very dangerous. Fritz obviously showed a year ago that he could use his power to help power a first time pairing to a title match with Lehecka. Khachanov will be playing with someone other than Andrey Rublev for the first time since Cincinnati last year. The Russian has never won a doubles match on grass (0-4).
de Minaur-Korda
This is another first time team up, but another dangerous one as well. I mentioned Alex de Minaur earlier as being responsible for a big upset in 2023 when he paired with Cam Norrie at Queen’s Club. The Aussie is winless in four doubles matches in 2024, but he’s shown plenty of ability in the past with ten wins in 22 career doubles matches on grass. He made the semis here at Queen’s Club in 2022 with Norrie. Korda has been an under-the-radar quality doubles partner this year, winning the Madrid titles with Jordan Thompson and sporting a 10-5 record overall. Nine of those 15 matches required a super tie break finish. Like Khachanov, Korda is seeking a first doubles win on grass at 0-4 in previous tries.
Humbert-Shelton
This is a potentially electric team in my opinion. We got to see them once in Brisbane where they won in their debut together before withdrawing before the next round. On grass, the serves of these two alone should guarantee that they stick in most matches and make life hell on their opponents. Neither has a ton of experience on grass in doubles, so the feeling is they’ll need a good draw early to grab a win, but if they can get more matches, they could be a sleeper team to watch.
Draper-Norrie
I’m not sure what to think of this one; on one hand, it could be an absolute blast, but on the other you’ve got Draper off a long week in Stuttgart, so does this make sense for him? Draper has rarely played doubles as this will be his first match since last February when he teamed and lost with Dan Evans in Los Cabos. Norrie played his lone doubles match in Nottingham at a Challenger event last week. If this team stays intact, it’s one to watch, especially given how lethal Draper’s serve is on this surface.
SEEDS: ONE AND DONE WATCH (First Match Upset Watch)
I’m not going to acknowledge that they’ve chosen to seed half of the field. That’s just silly, so I’m sticking to the top four seeds for the purposes of this section.
(2)Ram-Salisbury
The second seeds don’t always get it going quickly on grass. In their history together, it’s now three straight years at this event where they haven’t put together back to back wins. They have avoided an opening defeat each of the last two seasons after dropping their opener in 2021 to Alex de Minaur & Cameron Norrie. Waiting for them in round one? It’s singles foes turned partners in de Minaur and Sebastian Korda. Those two are both sneaky good in doubles and with the surface switch, de Minaur-Korda may have a chance to steal one early.
(3)Arevalo-Pavic
The French Open champions take the court for the first time together on grass. Pavic has been lethal on the surface in the past with Mektic, but it remains to be seen how it works with Arevalo on this surface. The injuries to Dan Evans and Frances Tiafoe in singles that took both their teams out of the doubles draw has hit these guys the worst. They went from facing Paul-Tiafoe, which rightfully could have been tough still, to going against a team with great form on grass in qualifiers Cash-Galloway.
(4)Dodig-Krajicek
The 2023 champions will be happy to get off of clay where they really struggled with opening losses in two of three tournaments and just one win in four overall matches. They have been outstanding on grass (14-4) in their time together, but they’re used to coming into the grass swing with good form. That’s not necessarily the case here, so the match in round one COULD be tricky. We’re still waiting to see if another lucky loser pairing will slot in to face them. That would be Peers-Thompson or Hijikata-Patten. There’s also a chance they could wind up with a bye, which may not actually do them any favors for the next round.
DRAW PREVIEW
TOP HALF
Bopanna-Ebden get a break with the reworked draw. They would have drawn Cash-Galloway, but instead get the Austrians Erler-Miedler. While that duo has beaten the top seeds back in 2023 at the Australian Open, I think it aids Bopanna-Ebden to see them on grass. I may not be a straight forward win, but I give them a better shot to avoid an early upset. I look directly down to Fritz-Khachanov who can use their power to stick with most on grass as a key threat in this half. They get a good draw to start with Cerundolo-Ethcheverry who have struggled one anything that isn’t clay. I’d expect Fritz-Khachanov to be waiting in the quarters. As for Bopanna-Ebden, they were good on grass in their first try last year. They made the semis in Stuttgart and got to the quarters here in London before making the Wimbledon semifinals. Bopanna-Ebden play a lot of tie breaks and that always makes it iffy, especially on grass. Fritz-Khachanov are the key players for me in keeping the top seeds from advancing.
In the other quarter, Arevalo-Pavic and Koolhof-Mektic are the big dogs. I’d give Koolhof-Mektic a slight edge having already transitioned onto grass last week in Hertogenbosch. The did well with a runner-up finish to Lammons-Withrow. I think they got the better draw to start, so I’d expect them to be in the quarterfinals waiting. Arevalo-Pavic go from Paul-Tiafoe to a red hot Cash-Galloway. They’ve already won a Challenger on grass and made the final in Stuttgart last week. This is a big uptick in competition though, but they still should be considered a big danger in round one against a team yet to play on grass together. If a seed gets through, I’d have to think Koolhof-Mektic until we see if Arevalo-Pavic are going to be able to carry over their superb form off of clay. Remember they really struggled on hard courts prior to that swing at just 8-5, but only 4-5 after their initial success with the titles in Hong Kong. Cash-Galloway remain an X-factor, but we need to see them step up and beat a top ten team to consider them as a danger to get into the semifinal mix. They’ll likely have to beat two of those to get through.
BOTTOM HALF
Quarter three finds the defending champions and a couple of teams that should not be ruled out as contenders. Dodig-Krajicek need a win badly to start here after a poor showing on clay. I think they lucked out big time with Evans-Murray unfortunately withdrawing, but let’s see if any team steps into that last spot. It’d be either Peers-Thompson or Hijikata-Patten. Both could still be tough against a slumping pair. The other match in this section is just as intriguing with Gonzalez-ERV the regular pair against first timers Draper-Norrie. Draper looked no worse for the wear in dominating his singles opener, so I do expect he’s staying in the doubles draw at least to start. If he makes a deep singles run again this week though, they’re definitely candidates to withdraw in my opinion. Gonzalez-ERV made the semifinals here a year ago and were solid, but not spectacular in their results on grass. They have not really found their rhythm since reforming to start the clay swing this year, so this is definitely a question mark spot for them. Dodig-Krajicek may be on a losing skid, but they get that new lease on life with the draw change. I think they could take advantage and they really need to get it going with points to defend this week.
The final quarter has Ram-Salisbury as the lead seeds. They finishes the clay swing with a flurry after struggling early, so they do arrive with some reasonable form. Their toughest match could be their opener against de Minaur-Norrie. We’ve already seen Korda’s danger on quick surfaces in doubles with the titles in Madrid alongside Jordan Thompson. And de Minaur made the semis with Norrie back in 2021, where they knocked off Ram-Salisbury in a super tie break finish along the way. An upset would not be a shock. The other match sees Venus-Skupski against Humbert-Shelton. Venus-Skupski were overwhelmed by the big serving duo of Bhambri-Olivetti in Stuttgart last week and Humbert-Shelton bring some of that same requisite big game to grass. I don’t feel safe picking against either of the singles pairs in this quarter honestly, they have that kind of ability on grass. Ram-Salisbury are obvious contenders IF they can avoid that early defeat, but it’s going to be tough.
THE PIG’S DRAW PROJECTION
Q1 QF: (1)Bopanna-Ebden vs Fritz-Khachanov
Q2 QF: Cash-Galloway vs (5)Koolhof-Mektic
Q3 QF: (6)Gonzalez-ERV vs (4)Dodig-Krajicek
Q4 QF: Humbert-Shelton vs de Minaur-Korda
PIGPIX
Koolhof-Mektic
de Minaur-Korda
LAST WEEK’S PIGPIX
DOUBLES TOURNAMENT PREVIEWS & PICKS 