NOTTINGHAM: NOTABLES & TRENDS
*The title run by Eikeri-Neel in 2023 marked the first unseeded pair to win the titles in Nottingham since 2019. They won just slightly above a pick ’em at 1.98 (-102) in the title match. The super tie break finish was the fifth in a title match in the eight year history of this tournament.
*Overall, there were four super tie break finishes in 2023 here out of the 15 matches played. Two came in the first round with the other pair coming in a semifinal and the final. That was just half of the STB total from 2022(8) when five of them came at the business end of the tournament in the quarterfinals and semifinals. In the history of this stop, there have been at least four super tie break matches each year.
*There were six underdog winners here a year ago. The largest came in the quarterfinals when (2)Muhammad-Olmos were upset. The dog hit came in at 3.22 (+222). The majority of the UD wins came in round one with two involving seeds losing. That was a big change from 2022 when only ONE underdog hit in Nottingham. It was a monster at 4.14 (+314) in the quarters when the two seed lost. And back in 2021, there were just three underdog winners.
*So how do the seeds fare in Nottingham? Only three have dropped their openers over the last three runs. They have however not always made deep runs with the last 16 semifinalists since 2019 seeing just six seeds make it through with half of those coming in 2022. Being the top seed has been mostly poisonous with only two taking the titles out of the eight championship matches played in Nottingham. Six of the eight finals have featured at least one unseeded duo.
SEEDS: ONE AND DONE WATCH (First Match Upset Watch)
(2)Dolehide-Krawczyk
I only put them on here because I’m not sure what to make of their opening opponents in Krueger-Zhang. Zhang is very experienced, especially on grass, where she’s seen some stellar results. More on that in the draw preview below. Krueger is less experienced at 20, but has looked good in doubles play this year at 9-7 paired with Sloane Stephens. If she gels with Zhang, perhaps this is a spot where they could pull off an upset on the surface switch.
(4)Shibahara-Watson
This duo could well be a contender for the titles with both being splendid doubles players with good histories on grass. I need to see them pair up first though as this is their first time teaming. They face Surbiton runners-up Grey-Moore, who have little experience together, but showed good prowess right away on grass last week. They may not have enough for the upset, but I would not be shocked to see them win a set.
DRAW PREVIEW
TOP HALF
Dabrowski-Routliffe are back together after two months. Dabrowski missed that time due to injury, while Routliffe scored some nice results on clay with Gauff and Fernandez. This will be their first time playing a non-hard surface, so there might be slight question of how they’ll do. All 42 (29-13) of their career matches the last two years were on hard courts. They look the clear class of this quarter though with mostly inexperienced teams or teams with most of their experience at a lower level, EXCEPT for Bains-Lumsden. The British pair are 41-18 in their careers together and were a surprise package at Wimbledon in 2023. They made the quarterfinals, but also lost their 2024 grass debut in Surbiton last week. That might mean nothing though as they did the same thing last year before the Wimbledon run. The Brits definitely would be the dark horses if Dabrowski-Routliffe had any sort of rust from not playing together.
Quarter two also looks seed heavy with Dolehide-Krawczyk having the best skill set and results amongst the four teams in this section. They caught fire to end the clay court swing with semifinal finishes in both Rome and Paris. Like Dabrowski-Routliffe though, this is their first time on grass. They go against first timers Krueger-Zhang to start. Can Zhang carry her younger partner on this surface? Don’t forget she made the Wimbledon semis with Dolehide last year and made the final in 2022 with Mertens. I tend to think she’d need a bit more experienced partner, but Krueger has shown a good doubles skill set in pairing with Sloane Stephens at times in 2024. The winner of this one is definitely the team I like to get through this quarter. Frech-Kawa have an experience edge in the other match in this quarter, but nothing where I’d rank them as a big favorite. Really keep your eyes on that Krueger-Zhang team early to see if there is any chemistry.
BOTTOM HALF
Quarter three has an interesting starter for first time team (4)Shibahara-Watson. Both have plenty of experience on grass with Shibahara winning in Hertogenbosch in 2023 with Aoyama and Watson making the final here last year with Dart. If they work well together, they’re instant contenders this week. They get less experienced players in Grey-Moore, but ones that have already played on grass this year and won three matches in Surbiton. I’ll stick with the seeds here as I have high hopes for what they can do in Nottingham. Guo-Juang are clear cut favorites in the other match against Burel-Osorio, who have only played together once back in 2022. Guo-Jiang may have only gone 2-5 on clay, but they were tough outs more often than not. Hard courts have been their best surface (37-9 across all competitions since 2023), but will that translate to grass? They have yet to play together on grass and neither has any experience on the surface, so we shall see how it goes. I really like Shibahara-Watson to mesh well and get a spot in the final four.
The final quarter houses Melichar-Martinez/Perez who stumbled a bit on clay after winning the titles in Llieda. They lost three of their final four matches on clay, but did go the distance in two of those losses. The two seeds have had some nice runs on grass during their two previous grass court seasons together with a final in Eastbourne last year and a quarterfinal at Wimbledon in 2022. Last year’s Wimbledon first round loss was their lone one and done on grass in six tournaments played. They couldn’t ask for a better set up in this quarter with Americans Parks-Smith short on experience together, having not paired up since 2021. Chan-Wu might be a pair to monitor though as they did win a title on hard courts in their debut together last year in Hua Hin on hard courts. They’ve split the two matches played together on clay this year, but get a first time team up in Dart-Parry. Dart has seen some grass success in doubles as I mentioned with the final here last year with Watson and she made the semifinals last week in Surbiton. Parry is 0-3 in doubles this year, but has made title runs on clay in the past – whether these two gel remains to be seen.
THE PIG’S DRAW PROJECTION
Q1 QF: (1)Dabrowski-Routliffe vs Bains-Lumsden
Q2 QF: (3)Dolehide-Krawczyk vs Frech-Wawa
Q3 QF: Guo-Jiang vs (4)Shibahara-Watson
Q4 QF: Chan-Wu vs (2)Melichar-Martinez/Perez
PIG PIX
Shibahara-Watson
Dabrowski-Routliffe
Catch me on “X” @tennispig any time to talk doubles and yes, I’ll still give a singles opinion when you ask. Look for PIGPIX posted daily and let’s get people to #WatchMoreDoubles
DOUBLES TOURNAMENT PREVIEWS & PICKS 