STUTTGART: NOTABLES & TRENDS
*As the grass court swing begins, Stuttgart will crown new champions in 2024. Mektic-Pavic, the Grass Gods, won last year’s titles as 1.75 (-133) favorites over Krawietz-Puetz. The Germans are back this year as the top seeds. There hasn’t been a true underdog winner in Stuttgart since 2018, when Petzschner-Puetz won as 2.19 (+119) dogs. The straight sets win for Mektic-Pavic was the third time in the last four runs in Stuttgart that the final has ended in two sets.
*Seeds have traditionally been strong here the last two years with six of the eight semifinal duos in that span being seeds. That broke up a three year streak where multiple unseeded teams made the final four in Germany. With the recent seeded success, only one of the last eight seeds between 2022 and 2023 have lost their openers. Prior to that, five of the eight seeds in 2019 and 2021 went one and done. 2021 was the last time an unseeded duo made the final AND won the championship match. Between 2018 and 2021 in three runs, there were five unseeded teams involved in the final, but none in the last two years. Being the top seeds in Stuttgart hasn’t been great however with the last top seed winners coming in 2019, the only time since this tournament switched to grass in 2015.
*Underdogs won just twice in 14 completed matches last year. One hit came in round one at 2.55 (+155) and the other in the quarterfinals when (3)Gonzalez/Roger-Vasselin lost to Erler-Miedler with the Austrians hitting at 2.84 (+184). 2022 saw four dogs bite with three in the first round, but the high coming at 2.58 (+158) in the quarterfinals. And going back to 2021, five of the 14 completed matches went against the favorites with the biggest dog score coming at 2.97 (+197) in round one. Three of the five dog hits that year came in the opening round, so perhaps that is the place to focus for your underdog looks with teams transitioning off of clay.
*Super tie breaks were needed in four of 14 matches in 2023. That was down from five in 2022 and a whopping ten in 2021. I don’t know that there is any rhyme or reason to the STB count in Stuttgart, but one thing to be aware of is the number of tie break sets.
*With grass, serves of course become even more amplified due to the quick conditions. Last year, nine of the 30 regulation sets required a tie break. Interestingly, of the eight matches with those tie break sets, only TWO went to a total of 23 games or higher. In 2022, 15 of the 32 regulation sets saw a tie break finish with five of the nine matches having those TB sets seeing totals hit better than 24. One thing to watch is the first set tie breaks. There have been 19 over the last three years amongst the 44 matches played.
SINGLES MINGLE
With the small field of 16 teams in Germany, the number of “singles pairs” is sparse. In fact, there’s just two.
Hanfmann-Koepfer
The Germans have played seven matches together in 2024 with a 5-2 record overall. They haven’t done much since their stunning Australian Open semifinal push. Last year, they did play both Stuttgart and Halle on grass. They won their openers at both tournaments, but had to pull out of Stuttgart due to injury and lost in round two in Halle. They’re coming in off another retirement at the French Open, so perhaps they’d be fortunate to win one again this year.
Eubanks-Safiulin
An interesting one-off pairing for the week. Eubanks as you might recall used his monster serve to great effect in singles last year with a stunning run to the Wimbledon quarterfinals along with a title in Mallorca. Eubanks played a pair of grass court doubles matches last year, but did not score a win. Safiulin has yet to play doubles on grass, but also showed good acumen on the surface last season as another surprise Wimbledon quarterfinalist. This is an intriguing team to me that could cause some issues in this draw.
SEEDS: ONE AND DONE WATCH (First Match Upset Watch)
(2)Venus-Skupski
It’s a dangerous opener for this combo as they face Bhambri-Olivetti. The two seeds are teaming up for just the second time and first since 2021. They did have success then, making the Citi Open final on hard courts, but it’s been a minute. Bhambri-Olivetti have been a tough, under-the-radar duo that has racked up an 11-4 record, all on clay. They won a title in Munich and made a final in Lyon, so they are battle tested. Grass should only aid their cause with Olivetti possessing that massive serve. This one could be very tricky.
(3)Glasspool-Rojer
The seeds are playing grass together for the first time and come off a mediocre clay swing that saw little success outside of their Geneva runner-up finish. They lost their opener three out of five times at the ATP level during that swing. They square off with one of our “singles pairs” in Germans Hanfmann-Koepfer. It’s tough to know what the Germans will bring as they haven’t been at full strength (French Open withdrawal), but they’ve played enough to show that if they are healthy, they can be a big time threat against most.
(4)Behar-Pavlasek
A rough draw for the four seeds as they draw Surbiton Challenger champs Cash-Galloway to start. So you’ve got a competent team here that already got acclimated to the surface against a duo who will step onto grass for the first time in 2024. Behar-Pavlasek also faded after making the Madrid final, losing four straight, including three first round matches. That said, they did make the quarterfinals at Wimbledon in their lone grass court experience last year, so they can win on this surface, and with little prep as they were playing on clay at the Challenger level weeks prior to that run in 2023. I still think this one is going to be rough on them though, so they’ll have to find a strong level quickly to avoid the upset.
DRAW PREVIEW
TOP HALF
The opening quarter with (1)Krawietz-Puetz looks winnable for the home-standing Germans. While they have cooled a bit late in the clay swing, this year’s top seeds have done well at avoiding early losses with only a single opening match loss on their resume in 2024. I do think Frantzen-Jebens will be a test as the veterans have shown when they step up to the ATP level that they are competitive and a tough out. They have only played on grass twice and that was at the Ilkey Challenger last year, so experience on the surface is a question. The other match opposite that one sees Dustin Brown back in action with Ofner as a wild card entry. They face Cornea and one-half of the dynamic duo of Machac-Zhang in Zhizhen Zhang. Zhang has not experienced the same success sans Machac with a 1-2 record with other partners in 2024 and 15-3 with the Czech. It’s a tough call with two first-time teams in this spot, but Brown does have some wins at this “home” tournament in the past with other a variety of partners. Perhaps, that gives Brown-Ofner a slight edge. Either way, this is Krawietz-Puetz’s semifinal spot to lose.
The second quarter looks wide open with Glasspool-Rojer as the seeds. Hanfmann-Koepfer could have a realistic shot to score the upset to start. I do think Glasspool-Rojer could be solid on this surface – remember that Rojer won the Wimbledon titles with Horia Tecau back in 2017 – I just need to see what they look like on this surface, but I do think they could show good results quickly on grass. The other match in this section should be good. We’ve got our other “singles pair” with Eubanks-Safiulin, who I think might be more dangerous that Hanfmann-Koepfer this week. And then it’s Matos-Melo, who have only played four matches together in their careers. They’ve struggled for wins, but have shown a competitive streak. Melo is a guy who has always found good results on grass with varying partners though, so I won’t overlook them in this spot early. I really think this quarter could go any which way.
BOTTOM HALF
The third quarter should yield a banger in round one with Behar-Pavlasek against Cash-Galloway. Cash-Galloway have had a few big runs at 250s this year with a semifinal in Hong Kong and a title run at Delray Beach. Behar-Pavlasek should appreciate the quicker conditions on grass, but they need to escape from that losing streak first. The survivor of that one will definitely be favorites to get through to the semifinals. The other match in this section has Erler-Miedler and a first time team in Hassan-Masur. Erler-Miedler made the semifinals here a year ago, so the vets can win on grass. It’s an advantageous draw to start, so the Austrians do seem the likelier winners. They might be a sleeper in this section too, even though clay is their best surface.
The final quarter should hinge on the Venus-Skupski versus Bhambri-Olivetti opener. Those two teams for me are a clear cut ahead of your two one-off tandems of Arribage-Doumbia and Daniell-Giron. Earlier in his career, Daniell had some nice runs on grass, but he was also partnering with the likes of Leander Paes and Wesley Koolhof. He did win the titles in Stuttgart back in 2016 with Artem Sitak, but I’m not sure if Giron is the partner who can help him to another big run. I’ve got to stick with Bhambri-Olivetti here as my favorites. Venus-Skupski COULD be a threat, but Skupski hasn’t really had a ton of luck at this level with his partner hopping since splitting with Santiago Gonzalez. Venus is 0-4 this season with partners not named Jamie Murray.
THE PIG’S DRAW PROJECTION
Q1 QF: (1)Krawietz-Puetz vs Brown-Ofner
Q2 QF: (3)Glasspool-Rojer vs Eubanks-Safiulin
Q3 QF: Erler-Miedler vs Cash-Galloway
Q4 QF: Daniell-Giron vs Bhambri-Olivetti
PIGPIX
Bhambri-Olivetti
Glasspool-Rojer
LAST WEEK’S PIGPIX
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