FRENCH OPEN: NOTABLES & TRENDS
*Su-wei Hsieh gets a shot at back-to-back French Open titles with different partners as she comes to Paris with Elise Mertens in 2024. Hsieh won here a year ago with Xinyu Wang in just the second tournament for the pair. Hsieh-Wang were 2.47 (+147) dogs in the final against (10)Fernandez-Townsend. Hsieh also won the French Open titles back in 2014 with Peng Shuai.
*The dog win by Hsieh-Wang was the second straight in the title match after a long run of Championship match wins by heavy favorites dating back to 2015. Coincidentally, it was Hsieh-Peng who were the last underdog winners before that lengthy run in 2014 at 3.00 (+200). In tune with that, the three set finish last year was also the second straight in Paris after a run of five straight set finals in a row.
*The Hsieh-Wang win was also the second in a row for an unseeded pair with Garcia-Mladenovic taking the titles in 2022. Unseeded pairs have had a nice run of going deep in Paris recently. Three of last year’s quarterfinal teams were unseeded. That was actually DOWN from five in each of the past two French Opens. Overall, there have been multiple unseeded teams in the final eight in each of the last eight years with at least one of those pairs advancing to the semis and multiple teams making the semis in half those runs.
*Overall, underdogs found the win column in just 15 matches. The huge hit of the tournament came in round one when (1)Siniakova-Krejcikova were knocked out by Eikeri-Hozumi, who were at 10.69 (+969). That was one of four juicier-priced hits of 3.00 (+200) or above in 2023. In 2022, there were 19 dogs that barked with more juicy Ws coming; seven came at 3.00 (+200) or better. That included an Eikeri-led duo again hitting it big in round one at 4.97 (+397) over (6)Guarachi-Klepac. 2020 was the last time that round one did not house the biggest dog winner. That year it came in the round of 16 when Hsieh-Strycova were beat by 5.83 (+483) dogs Guarachi-Krawczyk.
*There were 22 three set matches at Roland Garros last year out of 63 played. Half of those came in round one, not unexpected of course due to that round having 32 matches overall. Four of those did involve seeds. Five more three setters involved seeds in round two. The 22 total in 2023 was down three from 2022 and up from 19 in 2021. The one trend that seems to be prevalent amongst the three set matches in Paris is the involvement of a seeded team. Over the past three years, 41 of the 66 three set matches involved at least one seeded team. That’s a 62 percent clip.
SEEDS: ONE AND DONE WATCH (First Match Upset Watch)
(3)Schuurs-Stefani
Back in 2021, the three seeds’ opening foes, Begu-Podoroska, took advantage of a very open draw to make the semifinals at Roland Garros. That means they’re dangerous, but they also have not played together since that run here three years ago. Both play their share of doubles throughout the year with others, so they are not rusty in that regard. Schuurs-Stefani should likely prove to be too much, but they also haven’t been world beaters on clay thus far at 3-3 on the season. They have dropped their openers in three of the eight tournaments they’ve participated in so far this year.
(5)Gauff-Siniakova
On paper, this looks like a potential championship caliber team. But per my usual skepticism, we have not seen them on the court together yet. That’s really the reason to have them on the list in Paris as they face a pair in Danilina-Xu that comes in off a finals trip in Rabat. Granted the competition level there isn’t like what they will expect here, but they have shown competency and chemistry. That is always a combination that can be dangerous if a new team up doesn’t gel quickly.
(11)Errani-Paolini
They come in hot after winning the titles in their home country the last time out. That was much needed after they lost their first two matches of the clay court swing. I do think their round one is going to be tough with Babos-Khromacheva proving to have instant chemistry at their debut tournament in Rouen this month. They won the titles and look to be an intriguing team. There’s no doubt that the seeded Italians can beat the best of the best, but they’ve also had some shaky outings at times and I think that leaves them in a spot here that may be tough.
(12)Chan-Kudermetova
The 12th seeds withdraw from their last match in Rome, but would appear to be healthy enough to start in Paris. They get an interesting all-Brit duo in Boulter-Watson to start. Heather Watson has quietly become a solid doubles player, having already played in a pair of finals with other partners earlier this season. That she’s been competitive, even in losses, with a few different partners gives me hope that pairing with a familiar face could lead to good things. They did play doubles ages ago in 2018 in one tournament, so they could need time to gel.
(13)Eikeri-Neel
This seeded pair has dropped three straight coming to Paris, including a pair of opening losses. They draw a team in Bondar-Minnen that is an under-the-radar duo to keep your eyes on. They’ve made back-to-back quarterfinals at Roland Garros. Basically, they pair up only for the Grand Slam events, but that makes them tested and as they’ve proven here, a threat.
(16)Kato-Kichenok
Is the chemistry there and it’s just been tough sledding against tough teams? Perhaps, but they’ve lost their last three matches in straight sets with half the sets seeing them win just one or two games. They get Aussies Saville-Tomljanovic, who themselves have played just two matches together this year. One win, one loss at the Australian Open. This is just a gut feeling one to have on the list and odds makers seem to think so too with the Aussies as very light underdogs in this one.
DRAW PREVIEW
TOP HALF
QUARTER #1
You’ve got (1)Hsieh-Mertens and Kenin-BMS in the top half. The top seeds have been solid enough on clay at 5-2, but have not been to a final since winning Indian Wells. Their early draw looks like it affords them a solid shot to be in the round of 16, which is as far as they got when they last played Paris in 2021. The question of who they battle for a shot at a quarterfinal is a good one. Kenin-BMS have been a real nice pairing in limited play with a 9-3 record this year. The Americans did team up at Roland Garros back in 2020 and made the quarterfinals. They look to be a collision course with Bucsa-Niculescu in round two. Those two looked really solid in winning the Strasbourg titles last week, so they will be a threat. Don’t forget Kenin-BMS’ propensity for going the distance with seven of their last nine matches needing a super tie break. Sign me up for Hsieh-Mertens and Kenin-BMS part three if it happens. They’ve split a pair of 11-9 super tie break finishes in 2024 with Hsieh-Mertens winning the most recent in Rome.
The bottom half of the quarter has two solid seeds in Kichenok-Ostapenko and Errani-Paolini. Starting with (6)Kichenok-Ostapenko’s portion of the quarter, you have to like their early set up to grab some wins. Last year, they lost in round two a year after making the semifinals at Roland Garros. The six seeds have been consistent with quarterfinals or better in seven of nine tournaments, but they haven’t been to a final outside of Australia where they were involved in two. I talked about Errani-Paolini and their potential trouble in round one. That’s the big test for them. If they get past that, then the sky might be the limit for the Rome champions. They did beat Kichenok-Ostapenko in Rome, 10-5 in a super tie break finish. For me that seems the likely battle for the quarterfinal spot, unless Babos-Khromacheva step up.
I mentioned earlier how there are unseeded surprises pretty commonly in the latter stages of this tournament, but this is a quarter with very strong seeds. I would be surprised if an unseeded team came through this section. I’ll put Kenin-BMS and Errani-Paolini as the two I like he most, but obviously Hsieh-Mertens will rightfully be everyone’s favorites. For me, I like that both the Americans and Italians have played them extremely tight this year with Kenin-BMS having actually found the win column too. That might be the difference maker.
QUARTER #2
The top half looks ripe to me for an unseeded takeover. While Schuurs-Stefani are solid enough, hard courts have been better to them this year. A team to watch in this section is Andreeva-Zvonareva. The young and older combo from Russia have only played a handful of matches together, but they have been pretty competitive with a win over Errani-Paolini and a tight loss to Gauff-Routliffe, who were outstanding in Rome. Bondar-Minnen are the obvious threat as far as unseeded pairs in this section and it would not be shocking at all for them to make it three for three in getting to quarterfinals at Roland Garros. The unpredictable factor in this section has to go to the French wildcards Cornet-Ferro as Cornet plays here for the final time. The French pair has played a little bit together and look competent enough to take advantage of a home setting and what looks like an open part of the draw.
The seeds in the bottom half are both interesting in their own right. Fernandez-Routliffe played for the first time in Strasbourg and made the semifinals. In this part of the draw, that confidence is as good as any you’ll find. (7)Bouzkova-Sorribes Tormo haven’t teamed since early April when they made the Bogota semifinals on clay. They have not been as impressive as they were in 2023 when they made a quarterfinal run here, but in this section of the draw, they look as probable as anyone else. One team to monitor in their direct path to the quarterfinals is Kostyuk-Ruse. They have yet to play a match together in 2024, but they’ve proven tough at 17-9 all-time. That includes a quarterfinal here two years ago and a round of 16 spot last year. It really shapes up to be a free-for-all to me in this half. I’d give Fernandez-Routliffe the nod, but Bouzkova-ST and Kostyuk-Ruse aren’t far behind them given their success in Paris.
I won’t say for sure that an unseeded pair comes out of this quarter to get that semifinal slot, but I would be surprised if one, if not two, are playing for the right to get into the last eight. I’d probably put Bondar-Minnen at the top of my list due to their Grand Slam experience and success particularly at Roland Garros. For seeds, Fernandez-Routliffe have that potential, I just need to see more from them.
BOTTOM HALF
QUARTER #3
Krejcikova-Siegemund kick off this quarter and boy oh boy, there is plenty to like about this team and plenty to worry about. They’re 11-2 together and come in with a Madrid final as their last result. They already proved tough at a Slam earlier in 2024 with a quarterfinal in Melbourne. They have been good at beating the teams they should beat early, and I that to continue in Paris … but I do worry some about Krejcikova who is struggling in singles and I do wonder if that carries over a bit into doubles. Muhammad-Sutjiadi are definitely on the radar as they appear to be peaking at the right time with wins in six of seven with two straight finals’ appearances. I’m having a hard time seeing a duo that would prevent those two from battling it out for the quarterfinal spot.
The top half of this quarter has perhaps the most dangerous unseeded duo in the draw former French Open champions Garcia-Mladenovic back. They won here both times they’ve played in 2016 and 2022, is a three-peat happening? Probably not, but they certainly are a threat to turn things upside down in this quarter. A note on their French Open play: seven of their 12 career matches at Roland Garros have gone three sets. They’re a danger for Dolehide-Krawczyk in round two with the eight seeds having been solid, yet unspectacular on clay at 5-3. Chan-Kudermetova have the ability in the bottom portion here to make a run, but they’ve struggling to match their title run in Stuttgart. Their other three tournaments played have yielded a 3-2 record.
I think it would be unsurprising to see Garcia-Mladenovic in the quarterfinals on home soil. They’ve got the pedigree and this draw isn’t particularly harsh in their half. I’d take Krejcikova-Siegemund to be there as well. The five seeds don’t have that signature moment yet in 2024, could this be it?
QUARTER #4
The final quarter houses both (2)Melichar-Martinez/Perez and perhaps what may end up being a championship contending team in (5)Gauff-Siniakova. Starting in the two seeds half, they will seek to match last year’s semifinal and their draw should allow them room to advance. They have lost their last two, but they were tough super tie break losses. One thing that bears watching, they have lost their opener in two of the three Slam events since last year’s French Open. There is no excuse with their draw to at least avoid that again and it looks likely they could a couple more. Kato-Kichenok are the other seeds in their half, but if the two seeds find their best, I really like them to get the quarterfinal spot.
In the Gauff-Siniakova half, their opener might prove to be the biggest road block. When you pair up the first time, that of course would be a spot where you’re more prone as you learn your partner a bit more. Danilina-Xu are competent and certainly could take advantage. Otherwise, I’m having a hard time looking at this half and not putting Gauff-Siniakova in the quarters. The other seed, Shibahara-Wang, are still learning their tendencies as well. On talent alone, you have to like Gauff and Siniakova. I just don’t see the unseeded threat in this section.
It’s hard not to like the top seeds in this quarter. Both Melichar-Martinez/Peers and Gauff-Siniakova have the draw set up well to succeed. I like that Gauff has shown the ability to win with anyone, the mark of a great player and partner. Siniakova has also shown her pure talent by succeeding with Storm Hunter early this season and grabbing a few wins in a one-off with Taylor Townsend in Rome.
THE PIG’S DRAW PROJECTION
Q1 QF: (14)Kenin-BMS vs (6)Kichenok-Ostapenko
Q2 QF: Andreeva-Zvonareva vs (9)Fernandez-Routliffe
Q3 QF: Garcia-Mladenovic vs (4)Krejcikova-Siegemund
Q4 QF: (5)Gauff-Siniakova vs (2)Melichar-Martinez/perez
PIG PIX
Gauff-Siniakova
Kenin-BMS
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DOUBLES TOURNAMENT PREVIEWS & PICKS 