GENEVA: NOTABLES & TRENDS
*Murray-Venus won the titles in Geneva last year as 2.08 (+108) underdogs in the title match over Granollers-Zeballos. They’re seeking to become the second back-to-back champs in Geneva in its limited history. The Geneva Open began in 2015 with Marach-Pavic becoming the first repeat champs in 2018 and 2019. A seeded team has won the titles here each of the eight runs in Geneva.
*Seeds were a perfect four for four in avoiding an opening loss last year. Three of the four seeds made the semifinals. That was a change over the previous two runs where three of the eight seeds between 2021 and 2022 were ousted in their openers. There were only three seeds advancing to the semifinals those two years overall. 2023 was the only time in Geneva’s history that multiple unseeded teams DID NOT make the semifinals.
*Underdogs won just four of the 15 matches in 2023. 2.21 (+121) was the largest dog score and it came in round one. That was down from five underdog wins in 2022, but there were only two back in 2021. If you’re looking for a spot to find underdog wins, the opening round looks like your best shot. Seven of the eleven underdog hits between 2021 and 2023 came in round one.
*Super tie breaks were few and far between last year with only three needed. That was way down from eight in 2022 and four in 2021. There doesn’t seem to be a specific trend of where to look for those as 2021 saw all four in the quarterfinals and semifinals, while 2022 saw the majority (5) in round one. 2023 saw two of the three in round one and the other coming in the semifinals.
*One note of interest for the Geneva Open: the last three champions all played this stop for the first time. In fact, seven of the eight all-time champions in Geneva won this tournament in their debut at this stop. Three of this year’s four seeds would fit that mold with (1)Nys-Zielinski, (3)Arevalo-Pavic and (4)Mies-Skupski all making their Geneva debuts in 2024.
SINGLES MINGLE
Being the week before a Grand Slam, you’d expect to see far fewer of our “singles pairs” in the draw. That is 100 percent the case this year with NO singles pairs taking part in the doubles draw at all.
SEEDS: ONE AND DONE WATCH (First Match Upset Watch)
(2)Murray-Venus
A difficult opener for the defending champions as they draw a very competent, veteran duo in Arneodo-Weissborn. The Austrian pair is 7-5 on clay in 2024 with their best ATP run coming at another ATP 250 in Estoril, where they made the semifinals. They haven’t beaten what I would call any of the key players at this level, but they can compete well and I think will make Murray-Venus be at or near their best to score the win.
(3)Arevalo-Pavic
I love what Arevalo-Pavic are doing in turning around their season with a solid clay court swing. They too face a quick turnaround after being involved in the Rome final on Sunday. I’d honestly not be terribly surprised to see them withdraw from Geneva if they win the titles tomorrow. If they stick in, they get Matos-Melo in round one. The Brazilians have only paired once, but narrowly lost to Murray-Venus in Shanghai last year. Could this be an Olympic duo? I’m intrigued to see the Brazilians on dirt and they could potentially take advantage of Arevalo-Pavic having to travel quickly to this tournament.
(4)Mies-Skupski
A rough draw sees them against Behar-Pavlasek to start. Mies-Skupski did get the bonus of getting their first tournament together under their belts at the Challenger level in Turin. The chemistry is there as they’ll play in the final in Italy on Sunday. That means a quick turnaround to Geneva that could play against them regardless of the Sunday outcome. Behar-Pavlasek had their best clay run in Madrid, making the final. They proved just as tough in Rome, where they lost a close super tie break against Nys-Zielinski in their opener. I expect this round one match to be a good one.
DRAW PREVIEW
TOP HALF
(1)Nys-Zielinski lead the first quarter. A quick and important note on the top seeds: they have played super tie breaks in seven of their ten clay matches in 2024. They get Mahut going nomad with his partners again, this time a first-time team up with Balaji. Balaji had plenty of experience, mostly playing Challengers this year with Begemann. They won a title in Cagliari and also proved tough at the ATP level with a semifinal in Houston. The question here is whether or not Mahut and Balaji can find that quick chemistry needed against a solid duo. The survivor will get Lammons-Withrow or Escobar-Nedovyesov. Lammons-Withrow still don’t regularly produce their best results on clay (4-6), but they remain competitive on the surface. Escobar-Nedovyesov could be sleepers in this section. They’ve been awesome on clay this year at 11-2, including a Challenger title in Girona and an ATP title in Estoril. They are ones to watch.
In quarter two, the seeds are (3)Arevalo-Pavic, if they remain in the draw. If they do, they’re obvious favorites not just in this half, but for the tournament based on their recent play. This is a quarter they should be able to win. Matos-Melo do present an interesting opener and don’t forget Arevalo-Pavic lost their opener in Madrid in between all their other impressive runs on clay this swing. The other match in this quarter could be a banger with Cash-Galloway coming in hot off a Bordeaux Challenger final on clay. Erler-Miedler though are quality opponents on clay with a 10-6 mark on the surface in 2024. The Austrians thrived in the 250 setting earlier in the Spring with a final in Marrakech, followed by a semifinal in Munich. They are however on a three match losing skid coming to Geneva. I still think they have a great shot to score the win with Cash-Galloway another team that will have had three matches squeezed into the Saturday-Sunday slot in Bordeaux.
BOTTOM HALF
(4)Mies-Skupski come in as the seeds here and perhaps looking as a permanent pairing for the rest of 2024? They’re already on the books to team up at Roland Garros and have looked good in Turin. One thing to keep in mind as they battle Behar-Pavlasek first is that pair has played super tie breaks in five of eight on clay. This should be a great opener. The winner wil be favored to push through to the semifinals for sure. The other pairing in this quarter features Swiss wild cards Bellier-Paul against a more veteran duo in Frantzen-Jebens. Frantzen-Jebens have not reproduced the great season they had last year (51-23), but they’re heating up with six wins in their last eight on clay at the Challenger level. That included a title run in Mauthausen. They’re heavy favorites against the Swiss, who have played just once together back at a Futures tournament in 2018. A note for the quarterfinals: if Mies-Skupski win, it could be a repeat against Frantzen-Jebens, whom they beat in round one at the Turin Challenger last week. The Mies-Skupski/Behar-Pavlasek winner will be the ones I think that most likely get that semifinal slot.
The final quarter houses the defending champions, Murray-Venus. It’s a tough draw with Arneodo-Weissborn first and then possibly Glasspool-Rojer in the quarterfinals. Murray-Venus have struggled to find their best on clay this year outside of a semifinal run in Madrid. They lost their openers in both Monte-Carlo and Barcelona, and lost to Ram-Salisbury in round two in Rome. I would not be surprised if Arneodo-Weissborn score the underdog scalp in round one. Glasspool-Rojer get a first-time Swiss pairing in Margaroli-Wenger. Glasspool-Rojer are coming in at just 2-5 on clay and a first round retirement at the Bordeaux Challenger. I could not find information on the nature of that retirement, so you have to take a wait and see attitude with them in round one. They should have the big edge at full health you’d think. Keep in mind that Murray-Venus handled Glasspool-Rojer 6-4, 6-3 in Rome, so they’d certainly be heavy favorites to advance IF they’re in that position.
PIG’S DRAW PROJECTION
Q1 QF: (1)Nys-Zielinski vs Escobar-Nedovyesov
Q2 QF: (3)Arevalo-Pavic vs Cash-Galloway
Q3 QF: Frantzen-Jebens vs (4)Mies-Skupski
Q4 QF: Glasspool-Rojer vs Arneodo-Weissborn
PIG PIX
Arevalo-Pavic
Mies-Skupski
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DOUBLES TOURNAMENT PREVIEWS & PICKS 