ROME NOTABLES & TRENDS
*Storm Hunter and Elise Mertens won the titles in 2023 as the four seeds over top seeds Gauff-Pegula 6-4, 6-4 as 2.26 (+126) underdogs. The finale ended a two-year run where the final needed a super tie break finish. The underdog has won two of the last three championship matches in Rome.
*Underdogs accounted for just eight wins amongst the 27 completed matches last year. Round one was the place to be for the majority of the dog hits with five coming in that round. There were two hits bigger than 3.00 (+200) with 3.52 (+252) and 3.40 (+240) coming in, with one of those involving a seed losing. Three of the five dog hits in round one involved a seed losing.
*Seeds still managed to make up 3/4 of the semifinal field with the top seeds, threes and fours involved. Seeds have had some trouble in their openers over the last four runs in Rome. Last year, it was three going one an done with no byes in round one. Prior to that, the top four seeds had been granted round one byes. Only one seed lost in 2022, but four went one and done in 2021. Four more seeds got sent home early in 2020.
*Unseedeed duos have still made their presence known in Rome with at least one making the semifinals each year since 2018. There were multiple unseeded semifinalists in three of the last six runs. The last unseeded champions came in 2022 when Kudermetova-Pavlyuchenkova beat (2)Dabrowski-Olmos for the titles. 2023 marked the first time since 2018 where an unseeded pair did not make the final.
*Super tie breaks hit at a 33-percent rate in 2023 with nine of 27 matches needing the STB to be settled. The majority, unsurprisingly, came in round one with six STBs. The business end of the tournament saw straight sets finishes in six of the final seven matches. That was in contrast to 2022 when four of the last seven matches saw super tie break finishes. There were a dozen STB finishes that year out of 25 completed matches with five more in round one. 2021 saw even more STBs with 14!
SINGLES MINGLE
Here is a look at some of the “singles pairs” in Rome this week that could make a push for one of those semifinal spots or better.
Blinkova-Samsonova
This pairing of Russians signifies a first-time team up. I’d assume it is another in a long line of players partnering in case there’s some Olympic potential. I don’t know that we should expect much here with both standing at 2-5 in doubles play in 2024. That said, both have had some success at times during their careers playing doubles, so perhaps if there’s some instant chemistry? They get Gauff-Routliffe, who are also thrown together for the first time, so it will at least be an interesting watch to see if either team clicks.
Stephens-Vondrousova
Another first time pairing, but one that is up against a regular pair in Dolehide-Krawczyk to start. There’s certainly some doubles talent here with Sloane winning the Charleston titles this Spring alongside Ashlyn Krueger, racking up a 9-5 record this year. Vondrousova has a pretty nice doubles resume as well. Couple that with the fact that three of the last four losses for Dolehide-Krawczyk have come to “singles pairs” and you’ve got yourself a reason to pay attention in round one.
Bronzetti-Noskova
Bronzetti was paired with Samsonova in Madrid and they played two very competitive matches. Her other two doubles matches this season were not with two different partners. Noskova has played more doubles (4-7) and made the Abu Dhabi final with Heather Watson early in the year. Bronzetti has an awful record over the last three years in doubles at 3-19, so it’s hard to think this pair is going to do much. They get a pair of young Italian wild cards to start, so getting a win … it could be feasible.
Errani-Paolini
My favorite Italian pairing were a non-factor in Madrid, which was disappointing. They ride a three game losing skid into Rome where they’ll match up against (2)Melichar-Martinez/Perez to open. After an early exit in Madrid, MM-Perez flipped to Llieda within a few days and won the titles. They’re hot, but the Italians own a win over them in Linz earlier this season. I’m expecting a better showing from Errani-Paolini this week as are odds makers, who have this right around a pick ’em.
SEEDS: ONE AND DONE WATCH (First Match Upset Watch)
(2)Melichar-Martinez/Perez
You just read the matchup: Errani-Paolini. Playing on home soil, perhaps it can help lift the one and done dread off the Italians. They’ve lost their opener in three of the last four tournaments they’ve played, but two of those went to super tie breaks. That was also the case when these two teams met in Linz, so don’t be surprised to see this go the distance.
(3)Gauff-Routliffe
Thrown together for the week, are the three seeds vulnerable? We really won’t know until we see if they have any chemistry. They battle first timers Blinkova-Samsonova to open. Gauff showed good chemistry with Taylor Townsend last week in a first time team up, so it’s not off base to think that being paired with another very solid doubles player could lead this tandem to have a good week.
(8)Dolehide-Krawczyk
The eight seeds bounced back from a pair of opening match losses to make the Madrid quarterfinals. Singles pairs have been a bug-a-boo for these two though with losses to Gauff-Pegula, Kalinina-Yastremska and Pavlyuchenkova-Potapova in the last month. They get more singles players in Rome with Stephens-Vondrousova up first. Is there a jinx?
DRAW PREVIEW
TOP HALF
(1)Hsieh-Mertens lead this quarter and were pretty solid on clay in the altitude in Madrid, making the semifinals. Rome is another stop they didn’t do well in during their 2021 team up, losing their opener in a super tie break. I think they better that this year with a favorable opener. Things may have gotten even better with Krejcikova pulling out in singles and doubles. That means Chan-Kudermetova slide into the spot that was set to be occupied by Krejcikova-Siegemund, who beat Hsieh-Mertens in Madrid. I still think Danilina-Neel could be a pesky opener regardless of opponent. Two unseeded teams worth noting here are Kenin/Mattek-Sands and Wang-Zheng. Kenin-BMS were tough in a loss to Gauff-Pegula in Madrid and have a knack for super tie breaks: six of their last seven matches have gone that way. Wang-Zheng also have a STB fetish with four of their five matches in 2024 needing one to settle. That might be something to consider with matches involving these teams. I’m keen to see a Hsieh-Mertens rematch against Kenin-BMS in round two. Kenin-BMS scored the upset over them during their stunning Miami title run.
The second quarter is led by two first time teams as seeds with (3)Gauff-Routliffe and (5)Siniakova-Townsend. This will be Siniakova’s first doubles action since Indian Wells and just her second doubles match without the injured Storm Hunter this season. Inject this team into my veins. Townsend has been very flexible in finding success with different partners as has Gauff for that matter. I’d love to see those two teams square off in the quarterfinals. There are plenty of plot twists in the way though with Muhammad-Sutjiadi as one possible in round two for the 5th seeds and perhaps Andreeva-Zvonareva in the same round for Gauff-Routliffe, if they survive round one. It’s a fascinating quarter with a lot of teams short on experience, so it looks wide open. On talent, you’d expect the seeds, but that doesn’t always translate. I think I like Gauff-Routliffe’s route a bit better and give them an edge if a seed is going to get through. This could definitely be a quarter for an unseeded duo however with so many teams here trying to figure things out on-the-fly. Maybe an experience team like Hozumi-Ninomiya can take advantage?
BOTTOM HALF
The experience is back in this quarter with (4)Schuurs-Stefani and (8)Dolehide-Krawczyk as the seeds. Dolehide-Krawczyk I think are a worry early against Stephens-Vondrousova. Round two looks better now with Chan-Kudermetova moving to the top half of the draw and replaced by Russians, Alexandrova-Sizikova. The Dolehide-Krawczyk/Stephens-Vondrousova survivor looks like the bet to advance to the quarters in this half. Schuurs-Stefani haven’t had a good swing since they won in Doha back in February. They’re just 3-4. This again looks like a spot perhaps where they can get back on track. Keep an eye on the Italian wild cards, Moritelli-Rosatello. They scored a win here in the first time playing Rome in 2023 and have been steady at the ITF level on clay (9-5). I think they could score the upset in round one and perhaps push Schuur-Stefani in round two. I’m watching Stephens-Vondrousova as the unseeded pair who could really shake things up if they find that immediate chemistry.
The final quarter should start with a bang when (2)Melichar-Martinez/Perez battle Errani-Paolini. That match will shape the bottom of this bracket with the winner clearly the favorite to push into the quarters. In the other half, there’s really no reason that (6)Kichenok-Ostapenko don’t make the quarterfinals. They made the quarters in Madrid last week with a tough STB loss against Hsieh-Mertens and they were quarterfinalists in Rome in 2023. Kichenok-Ostapenko lost to MM-Perez earlier this season, their first loss against them after taking two of two in 2022. Clay maybe hasn’t been their best surface during their two-plus seasons together, but they’re solid enough to be in contention with this draw. For me, this quarter is either Kichenok-Ostapenko or the MM-Perez/Errani-Paolini survivor with a nod to that R1 survivor that just might be the Italians again.
THE PIG’S DRAW PROJECTION
Q1 QF: (1)Hsieh-Mertens vs (9)Chan-Kudermetova
Q2 QF: (3)Gauff-Routliffe vs Hozumi-Ninomiya
Q3 QF: Stephens-Vondrousova vs (4)Schuurs-Stefani
Q4 QF: (6)Kichenok-Ostapenko vs Errani-Paolini
PIG PIX
Hsieh-Mertens
Errani-Paolini
Catch me on “X” @tennispig any time to talk doubles and yes, I’ll still give a singles opinion when you ask. Look for PIGPIX posted daily and let’s get people to #WatchMoreDoubles
DOUBLES TOURNAMENT PREVIEWS & PICKS 