ATP Rome Preview

ROME: NOTABLES & TRENDS

*Nys-Zielinski are back as the defending champs. They won as an unseeded pair last year against another unseeded duo in Haase-van de Zandschulp 7-5, 6-1. Nys-Zielinski were solid 1.65 (-153) favorites in the final. Unseeded pairs have been involved in the final in Rome for three of the last four years, but prior to last year, 2015 was the last time that an unseeded duo had won the titles.

*Unseeded pairs ran roughshod over the field in 2023, making up three quarters of the semifinal field. That marked the fourth straight year in Rome that multiple unseeded teams made the final four. Unseeded pairs also knocked off three seeds in round one in 2023 due to the depth of the field where Murray-Venus and Granollers-Zeballos were responsible for two of those wins. Because of that depth, the underdog prices were smaller with four dogs barking in round one, but the biggest hit coming at just 2.31 (+131). There were five more underdog wins the rest of the way for a total of nine out of 29 completed matches.

*The top seed in Rome has not been in a final since 2013, which was also the the last time the top seeds claimed the titles (Bryans). Koolhof-Skupski made the semifinals last year as the #1 seeds. That marked the first time since 2019 that the top seeds had been that far.

*Super tie break finishes were plentiful in 2023 with 15 of the 29 matches needing one to be settled. A whopping ten of those came in round one of the 16 matches played. There have been at least eight super tie breaks in the opening round in each of the last three years in Rome. That looks like a good spot to focus your eyes on if you’re looking for those sort of things. The quarterfinals have been a decent spot as well with at least two QFs requiring super tie breaks in three of the last four years. And for the numerologists amongst you, even-numbered years have seen STB finals dating back to 2016.

*Repeat champions have not been rare in Rome recently. Mektic-Pavic won back-to-back in 2021 and 2022. Cabal-Farah also did the repeat feat in 2018 and 2019. Singles pairs last made a run in Rome with Isner-Schwartzman making the final in 2022. It had been four years however since the last one when Pablo Carreno Busta and Joao Sousa finished as runners-up. The last singles pair to win the titles were John Isner and Sam Querrey in 2011, when they ironically won the titles on a walkover against fellow singles pairing, Mardy Fish and Andy Roddick.

SINGLES MINGLE

Madrid champions Seb Korda and Jordan Thompson highlight this week’s “singles pairs” in Rome. The singles players aren’t getting headlines in some sort of experimental format this time, but there are still plenty of intriguing pairs to keep your eyes on.

Korda-Thompson
Their first time teaming up led to a title run in Madrid, but does that mean they’re contenders this week? They play Ram-Salisbury to start and that’s not the mountain of a task it’s been at times. Ram-Salisbury are struggling with an 0-3 mark on clay and no finals appearances since their opener in Adelaide. Korda-Thompson took out the likes of Bopanna-Ebden, Bolelli-Vavassori, Murray-Venus and Behar-Pavlasek during their title run in Madrid. They only dropped one set. I’m not sure they’re “contenders” per say, but they certainly could knock off the three seeds in round one.

Auger-Aliassime/Tiafoe & Bublik-Shelton
I put these two first timers together because they’re squaring off in round one. There’s not much to go on with Felix and Big Foe as they’ve combined to play two doubles matches in 2024. Both have had some sporadic success at times in doubles, but on clay in Rome, I’m not sure what they’re capable of this week. The same could be said for Bublik-Shelton. It’s a fun team in theory, but so was Bublik-Shapovalov last week and they got routed in Madrid. Bublik has lost six straight in doubles, while Shelton has been better at 5-5 this year. It’s a toss up, but the winner has an interesting spot in round two that I’ll touch on more later.

Fritz-Paul
The Americans have plenty of experience together at 9-13 in doubles, but this will be their first time pairing up since losing in round one here a year ago. They get another singles pair in round one against Cerundolo-Etcheverry who have lost 15 of the 19 career doubles matches they’ve played. The Americans are favorites, but it’s probably not in the cards for more than a win with Krawietz-Puetz probable in round two.

Griekspoor-Hurkacz
Will we actually get to see this pair in Rome? They’ve been on lists for a few tournaments since their debut at Indian Wells, but they’ve not made it to the starting gates. They showed good chemistry in that super tie break loss to Dodig-Krajicek, so I expect them to be a threat if they play. They have a very winnable opener and then could be a tough test for Koolhof-Mektic, who have not won back-to-back matches since their Indian Wells title run.

SEEDS: ONE AND DONE WATCH (First Match Upset Watch)

(3)Ram-Salisbury
They have a tough opener with Korda-Thompson. Ram-Salisbury have not been in tune for a bit with three straight losses coming into play this week. They’ve dropped three openers out of seven tournaments played with all of those losses coming on clay. They did make the final in Rome back in 2021, but have gone one and done in three of the other four trips. This will likely be a popular upset pick with Korda-Thompson around 2.28 (+128).

(4)Krajicek-Skupski
A random team up this week of two solid doubles stars. Can this one be potent? There’s not much time to figure out if they’re going to work this week or not as they face Monte-Carlo finalists Melo-Zverev in round one. Melo-Zverev had struggled for wins mostly before that MC run that saw them catch a couple of singles pairs and beat competent types in Ram-Salisbury and Arevalo-Pavic. They lost a tough R1 super tie break in their Rome debut last year, so expect this to be a battle with Melo-Zverev certainly capable of the win as short underdogs around 2.20 (+120).

(5)Gonzalez-ERV
A year ago, I don’t know if I would consider Lammons-Withrow as having the potential on clay to beat this team. In 2024 though, Gonzalez-ERV have only recently reunited and have yet to full hit their stride with a 1-2 record. Lammons-Withrow have already matched their win total (4) on clay from 2023 with some competent wins in 2024. Gonzalez-ERV did beat them 2/3 in 2023, but one of those wins was a 12-10 STB, so extremely tight. Gonzalez-ERV were decent on clay last year, but they feel vulnerable still at this point.

(8)Nys-Zielinski
A poor draw for the defending champions as they face Madrid runners-up Behar-Pavlasek to start. Nys-Zielinski have been solid on clay at 5-3, but have had very tough draws to contend with in 2024. Still, they made the final in Barcelona and the quarters in Madrid, where they lost 16-14 in a STB to Granollers-Zeballos. Behar-Pavlasek were just 1-2 on clay coming to Madrid where they found themselves winning three matches in STBs. If they’ve found their game again, they’re going to be a tough out for the seeds in this spot.

DRAW PREVIEW

TOP HALF

This first quarter houses the newly minted co #1s in Granollers-Zeballos and then defending champs, (8)Nys-Zielinski. The first question about Granollers-Zeballos is how healthy Zeballos is after a leg injury forced them out of Madrid in the semifinals. Rome has been good this duo with a title in 2020, quarters in 2021 and semis in 2023. At full health, they look to be a good bet for the quarterfinals. I do think the team of Matos-Molteni could be tricky though if they click. That’s the team I’d watch if the top seeds fall short of the final eight. As for Nys-Zielinski, it starts tough with Behar-Pavlasek and could stay tough with GIlle-Vliegen potentially lined up in round two. They’re 2-1 against the Belgians, but the Gille-Vliegen win came in their only clash on clay. Also, don’t forget it was Gille-Vliegen who nearly kept Granollers-Zeballos from reaching the number one spots in Madrid, losing 12-10 in a super tie break. I expect this quarter to be competitive with some upsets. Gille-Vliegen and Behar-Pavlasek are obvious unseeded threats.

The second quarter could align for the duo with one of the most consistent runs in 2024 in (6)Krawietz-Puetz. The Germans did fall short of a quarterfinal in Madrid, but otherwise have made the QFs or better in six of their other seven tournaments played. They need to be on alert in round one against the Aussies, de Minaur and Popyrin. That pair nearly took down Glasspool-Rojer in their first match in Madrid. Should they survive there, it might be another singles pair in Fritz-Paul that they could face. I still like Krawietz-Puetz, but the Americans could be a sleeper in this section. The other half has the question mark on the four seeds Krajicek-Skupski. Melo-Zverev definitely could beat them in round one and the survivor will be favored against one of two singles pairs in round two. Skupski has gone 2-2 in matches since splitting with Gonzalez, paired with Dodig and Salisbury. This seems similar, but they may win two if they get that first win. And they might perhaps even become favorites to get through the more they play.

There are plenty of questions surrounding the seeds in this half. How healthy is Zeballos? Can Nyz-Zielinski survive a tough opener to pursue back-to-back titles? And will Krajicek and Skupski prove to be a boom or bust first time team? The “safer” pick for this half is Krawietz-Puetz perhaps, but even they don’t look like locks depending on what shakes out in their quarter. I’m looking at one of the unseeded duos like Gille-Vliegen, Behar-Pavlasek or maybe Melo-Zverev to thrive. Krajicek-Skupski are my seeds I MIGHT like the most despite this being their first time paired up. Granollers-Zeballos certainly move to the top of the list of contenders if they’re fully healthy, but we need to see that first.

BOTTOM HALF

Two struggling seeds are in the third quarter with (3)Ram-Salisbury and (5)Gonzalez-ERV filling those roles. In the Ram-Salisbury half, the seeds are up against it right away taking on Korda-Thompson. It will be interesting to see how much help Korda-Thompson got from the altitude and “quicker” conditions in Madrid versus what we’d expect to be much slower in Rome. Regardless, this is not a great draw for Ram-Salisbury with Murray-Venus or Glasspool-Rojer lined up in round two. I would be more surprised note to see an unseeded pair emerge as the quarterfinalist out of this half. Murray-Venus got some needed traction with their semifinal run in Madrid. They made the quarters here in 2023. As for Gonzalez-ERV in the other half, even during their great run in 2023, clay wasn’t necessarily a great surface for them. And guess what? Their half is MORE LOADED than the other. Lammons-Withrow first up and then either Arevalo-Pavic or Doumbia-Reboul? Yikes. I’d again be stunned not to see one of the unseeded pairs through in this half. Doumbia-Reboul are 14-4 on clay in 2024 with the question being how will they fare against the tougher teams in this section?

The final quarter sees (2)Bopanna-Ebden and (7)Koolhof-Mektic as your seeds. For Bopanna-Ebden, it’s been a while since we haven’t seen a one in front of their names. Unfortunately for them, they can’t get away from Bolelli-Vavassori. They could meet again in this heavily Italian half that sees all three unseeded duos with Italians paired up together. You’ve got Cobolli and Musetti as first time teammates, while Arnaldi-Passaro do have some experience. Will that give them a shot against Bopanna-Ebden? The two seeds survived their debut a year ago in Rome, but were knocked out by de Minaur and Kubler in round two. They’ve lost both openers on clay so far, so there is some pressure. I still expect a round one win and perhaps we get to see them battle Bolelli-Vavassori for the third time after quite a few tournaments where a potential showdown looked likely, but did not happen. Bolelli-Vavvasori continue to be quiet consistency for the most part and perhaps it has all led to them getting a shot to break through against Bopanna-Ebden on home soil. The other half sets up well for Koolhof-Mektic who could use a run. It’s Haase-Tsitsipas in round one, but it’s Griekspoor-Hurkacz who should be more of a concern IF we get that matchup in round two.

I’m going with home cooking in this half as I look for Bolelli-Vavassori to reassert themselves in the race. The Italians have lingered in second behind Bopanna-Ebden for most of the season, but the gap has closed behind them with Granollers-Zeballos and Koolhof-Mektic within 100 points or so. It’s a massive week with Koolhof-Mektic and Bolelli-Vavassori both having nothing but points to gain. A title run by either would close the gap on Bopanna-Ebden in first considerably.

PIG’S DRAW PROJECTION

Q1 QF: (1)Granollers-Zeballos vs Gille-Vliegen
Q2 QF: (4)Krajicek-Skupski vs (6)Krawietz-Puetz
Q3 QF: Doumbia-Reboul vs Murray-Venus
Q4 QF: (7)Koolhof-Mektic vs Bolelli-Vavassoru

PIG PIX

Bolelli-Vavassori
Krawietz-Puetz

Catch me on “X” @tennispig any time to talk doubles! Look for PIGPIX posted daily and let’s get people to #WatchMoreDoubles in 2024!

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