MADRID OPEN: NOTABLES & TRENDS
*A “singles pair” in Khachanov-Rublev were the surprise package in Madrid a year ago, knocking off Bopanna-Ebden 6-3, 3-6, 10-3 to capture the titles. The Russian duo were sturdy favorites at 1.60 (-167) in the final against the #7 seeds. They were the first unseeded champions since 2019.
*Unseeded duos have routinely infiltrated the latter stages of the Madrid Open. Eight of the last 16 semifinalists dating back to 2019 were unseeded, led by the crazy 2019 tournament when all four semifinal teams were not seeded. There has been at least one unseeded pair in the final four here since 2017.
*The super tie break finish marked the third straight run in Madrid that the final required the STB to find a winner. STBs were plentiful with 15 in 2023 out of the 31 completed matches. That was up one from 2022. Ten of last year’s super tie breaks were found from round two through the championship. Half of the 14 STBs in 2022 fit the same pattern. Of some interest, in round one the last two runs, at least two matches involving seeds have needed a super tie break.
*Underdogs hit at a 35 percent clip in 2023 with eleven winners out of the 31 matches played. The biggest scalps all came in round one with a monster 7.09 (+609) winner leading the charge when Carballes Baena-Landaluce upset Matos-Vega Hernandez. Six other R1 dog hits ranged from 2.00 (+100) to 2.96 (+196) with only two involving seeds. The 35 percent hit rate matched 2022 with five of the eleven wins coming in round one and the largest at 3.37 (+237) in round two.
*Only two seeds went one and done in Madrid last year, but they were the 2s (Ram-Salisbury) and 3s (Dodig-Krajicek). That kept a trend going with three of the top four seeds losing their openers in 2022, when there were still first round byes. 2021 is the last time multiple top four seeds did not lose their first match, but even then, the one that did lose were the top seeds, Cabal-Farah. Being the top seeds here has been a curse more than a blessing with 2014 being the last time a top seeded tandem made the final. 2013 was the last time the top seeds won the titles when the Bryans took home the titles.
*With the experimental changes in Madrid this year for the men, there are 16 seeds out of 32 teams in the draw. There are no first round byes. Yes, there are more singles players in the draw with more open slots available to them under the experiment. Let’s take a look below at some of the more intriguing pairs to watch at the Madrid Open.
SINGLES MINGLE
With last year’s champions proving that singles players can win the tournament and the history here with unseeded duos going deep, it makes sense to pay attention to our singles pairings.
Fritz-Shelton
The hard hitting Americans pair up for the first time and they could be a huge threat in these fast conditions in Madrid. Fritz has only played a handful of doubles matches this year, but teamed with Rune in Monte-Carlo to make the quarterfinals. Shelton as you should know, has been a fairly regular doubles participant in 2024. The lefty is 5-5 in doubles play this season with a semifinal in Dallas as his best finish.
de Minaur-Popyrin
I’m guessing this is a pair that is testing their Olympic potential? Popyrin rarely plays doubles with just one match this year and only a dozen (5-7) last year. The Demon is the guy who likely carries more of the load due to experience with de Minaur playing more regularly in his career. It’s been sparse for him in 2024 however with an 0-2 mark, but he was 6-8 in 2023 that including a quarterfinal on clay in Rome with Jason Kubler. Popyrin’s serve should play well here, but I don’t know if this pair will do much damage overall.
Korda-Thompson
We know Jordan Thompson has been excellent in doubles, but most of that has been with Max Purcell. Thompson lost his only non-Purcell match in Barcelona, where he was paired with de Minaur. Korda has played more doubles than you might think with a 5-3 record this year. That includes a quarterfinal in Brisbane and a semifinal in Marseille early in the year, but he’s lost two of his last three played. This is an interesting team though and one I am wanting to see.
Medvedev-Paul
This one looks interesting only in theory to me. Between them, they have a grand total of two doubles matches played in 2024 with both players at 0-1. Paul has played more doubles of the two in the past few seasons, but it’s been sporadic. Outside of a mini-run with Ben Shelton in Miami last year (QF), most of the results are losses, albeit he did get to super tie break finishes in three of six losses in 2023. To me, that might be best case for this duo, to be competitive, but fall short.
Bublik-Shapovalov
Okay, while a lot might drool over that last pairing, this one has fun stamped on it. Listen, Bublik is the kind of doubles player you watch and wait for him to hit the umpire’s stand or his partner. He’s out of position a lot, but he always looks like he’s having fun. Shapovalov has had some good success in doubles, but a lot of that was paired with current world #1 Rohan Bopanna. Shapo is 4-2 in doubles in 2024 with Felix Auger-Aliassime as his partner in three of those wins. I don’t know if they’ll get a win, but I feel like on this surface in Madrid, they might be capable.
SEEDS: ONE AND DONE WATCH (First Match Upset Watch)
(3)Salisbury-Skupski
The Brits have plenty of experience together both at the ATP level and in Davis Cup play, but haven’t paired since 2022. I believe they’ve also never played on clay together, so there are some questions. It’s Mahut and Olivetti teaming up for the first time to battle them. That’s a team with some potential and this is the top four seed that looks most prone to an upset based on the matchup.
(7)Nys-Zielinski
The seeds are hot after making the final in Barcelona, but they draw Fritz-Shelton to start. The Americans have the big serve/forehand combination that produces some quick points in the altitude here in Madrid. I think they at least make this interesting. Nys-Zielinski split two matches here in their debut last year.
(8)Melo-Ram
It’s a first time pairing with Marcelo Melo and Rajeev Ram. They get a rough draw against Escobar-Nedovyesov, who won the doubles titles in Estoril earlier in the month. They are 8-0 on clay this year across all levels and 16-2 overall in their two years together. Melo-Ram should be on high alert.
(9)Gille-Vliegen
The Belgians draw the Tsitsipas brothers to open. The Tsitsi-bros already own a win over Gille-Vliegen back in 2021 indoors in Rotterdam. That is the same year Gille-Vliegen made the semifinals in Madrid in their lone previous trip. The Tsitsi-bros have lost three round one matches in Madrid dating back to 2021, but took their opponents to super tie breaks twice and lost 7-6, 7-5 to Arevalo-Rojer in 2023. This one should be tight with the Greeks having a real shot to score the win.
(10)Arevalo-Pavic
Their first round match is a rematch of a Hong Kong semifinal from early in 2024. It’s Behar-Pavlasek for the 10th seeds. Arevalo-Pavic survived them in Hong Kong 5-7, 6-3, 14-12 en route to the titles. After a rough hard court swing, Arevalo-Pavic have sprung to life on clay with a 5-2 record between Monte-Carlo and Barcelona. Behar-Pavlasek were great on clay in 2023 at 15-5, but they’ve struggled for consistency in 2024 at 9-9 and 1-2 on clay. Still, most of their losses have been close, so I expect another good battle.
(11)Murray-Venus
The 11 seeds have played well in Madrid the two years that they have made runs with a quarterfinal finish in 2022 and a semifinal last year. That said, they’ve dropped both their clay court matches this year and have not won a match since Indian Wells in early March. Bublik-Shapovalov are the opposition in round one and as I laid out earlier, I feel like they can compete on this surface, so this one could be tricky.
(13)Molteni-Peers
It’s a one-off for the week against another one-off in Barrientos-Mies. There’s simply no telling how either team will mesh, so that makes this one an absolute toss-up.
DRAW PREVIEW
TOP HALF
Quarter one has the top seeds and 2023 runners-up, Bopanna-Ebden. They’ve dropped their opener in two of their last three with the Miami titles sandwiched in between. I feel like the conditions in Madrid play well for them, but it could be a battle in R1 against Korda-Thompson. I do like Bopanna-Ebden to survive, but a super tie break would not be surprising. If they survive, they should be set up well against one of the first time teams of Molteni-Peers or Barrientos-Mies. In the bottom half, (5)Gonzalez-ERV team up for the second straight tournaments after reprising their 2023 partnership in Barcelona. They made the semifinals here last year, so the conditions suit them. It seems likely they could battle Bolelli-Vavassori for a potential rematch against Bopanna-Ebden, who took down Gonzalez-ERV in the semis (10-4 STB). The 12th seeded Italians have stumbled of late with opening losses in two of three, but this draw works a bit better (I think) to avoid that fate. I’d love to see Bopanna-Ebden vs Bolelli-Vavassori, part three. Bopanna-Ebden have won both, but the Italians have made them work hard.
The second quarter is led by (4)Dodig-Krajicek. Dodig-Krajicek lost their opener in Madrid in 2023 and come in off their only one and done in Monte-Carlo. That shouldn’t be a problem as they’re matched against two players in Hassan-Shlbayh who are ranked outside the top 300 in the rankings. They should be waiting for the Murray-Venus/Bublik-Shapovalov survivor in round two. The bottom half may come down to (16)Doumbia-Reboul or Escobar-Nedovyesov. Doumbia-Reboul are red hot with back to back finals in Estoril and Bucharest (win). It was Escobar-Nedovyesov who beat them in the Estoril final. Doumbia-Reboul beat them on hard courts in Acapulco earlier in the season. (8)Melo-Ram are ones to watch if they can escape round one, but I don’t know if that happens.
Bopanna-Ebden certainly are the favorites to get back to the final, but can they overcome the top seed jinx and win here? There are plenty of teams in this half that could keep them from being in position to play for the titles. Dodig-Krajicek, Bolelli-Vavassori and Doumbia-Reboul all have the potential. Escobar-Nedovyesov stand out as the unseeded pair to keep eyes on and the “singles pair” I am curious about is Bublik-Shapovalov.
BOTTOM HALF
(3)Salisbury-Skupski are the highest seeds in the third quarter. The Brits have plenty of experience together with two ATP titles and plenty of Davis Cup experience. It has been a couple of years since they last paired, so rust and clay (never played) could be an issue. They get French wild cards Mahut-Olivetti who I expect will be a tough out. Olivetti’s serve in Madrid? Yikes. Round two is no easier for whomever survives with Arevalo-Pavic or Behar-Pavlasek. On form Arevalo-Pavic would be the team to beat here, but I certainly think Salisbury-Skupski can level up if they advance. Mahut-Olivetti look like the outsiders who could cause some damage to me. In the top half, (6)Krawietz-Puetz lost their debut in Madrid last year, but it was an impossible draw against Koolhof-Skupski in R1. This year, the draw is better and the Germans’ consistency is better as well. They’ve dropped their opener just once in seven tournaments. Haase-Martin are good veterans of the game, but are teaming up for the first time. The only question on the Germans is how they’re doing after being a late withdrawal in Munich due to an undisclosed injury to Krawietz, but it seems he’s had time to heal up thanks to the format change in Madrid. (15)Lammons-Withrow should be tougher on this clay surface with the elevation helping their serve-centric games. It’s tough to pick against Krawietz-Puetz’s consistency, but if Lammons-Withrow are going to score a big win on clay, this would be the place.
The final quarter is led by (2)Granollers-Zeballos. They won the titles in Madrid in 2021, but are just 1-2 in the last two trips. They get Dutch pair Griekspoor-Koolhof, who are certainly here to test their Olympic capability. They lost their only match together previously, so you really have to go with the regular pair to get through in round one. Whether it’s Gille-Vliegen or the Tsitsipas brothers, the two seeds may not have an easy time. Remember, Gille-Vliegen took them down in Monte-Carlo during their surprise run to the titles. On the other side of the quarter, (7)Nys-Zielinski and (14)Glasspool-Rojer are the “seeds.” Fritz-Shelton are ones to monitor here with the American singles stars perhaps a danger to upset the order of things. Glasspool-Rojer had found a run of consistency on hard courts, but lost to Fritz-Rune in Monte-Carlo and split a pair in Bucharest. I don’t know that the Aussies, de Minaur and Popyrin, pull off an upset, but maybe it’s a close call. I’d look to the Nys-Zielinski/Fritz-Shelton winner as favorites to get to the quarterfinals.
The big question for me in this half is if Salisbury-Skupski can get out of the gates with a win? If they can, then it’s game on and they might well be the favorites in this half. Otherwise, the consistency of Krawietz-Puetz could pay off here or a resurgent Arevalo-Pavic look threatening too. Fritz-Shelton and Mahut-Olivetti are the two unseeded teams I can’t quite look past as being outsiders with a chance of getting hot.
PIG’S DRAW PROJECTION
Q1 QF: (1)Bopanna-Ebden vs (12)Bolelli-Vavassori
Q2 QF: (4)Dodig-Krajicek vs (16)Doumbia-Reboul
Q3 QF: (6)Krawietz-Puetz vs (10)Arevalo-Pavic
Q4 QF: Fritz-Shelton vs (2)Granollers-Zeballos
PIG PIX
Arevalo-Pavic
Doumbia-Reboul
Catch me on “X” @tennispig any time to talk doubles! Look for PIGPIX posted daily and let’s get people to #WatchMoreDoubles in 2024!
DOUBLES TOURNAMENT PREVIEWS & PICKS 