MADRID OPEN NOTABLES & TRENDS
*The unseeded duo of Azarenka-Haddad Maia won the titles here a year ago as 2.30 (+130) underdogs in the title match over (1)Gauff-Pegula. Their trumph marked the first time since 2015 that an unseeded pair won the titles in Madrid. It was also the second straight year in Madrid that the underdog won the finale.
*2023 saw a lot of unseeded success with three of the four semifinal slots going that way. The last four runs in Madrid have seen at least one unseeded pair in the semis with three of those years seeing multiple unseeded pairs in the final four. Seeds have generally been involved in the final more years than not though, but the top seeds in Madrid have not won the titles since 2018.
*With the success of the unseeded pairs, early upsets have been something to look out for in round one. Last year, four seeds went out in the opening round with 2.48 (+148) being the only underdog hit among the four seeded losses. In the last four runs in Madrid, at least three seeds have lost their openers.
*Last year, 12 of the 31 completed matches needed a super tie break to settle. The majority of those came in the opening round with eight super tie breaks ending the 16 first round matches. There were only ten super tie break matches in 2022 with four in the first round. 2016 was the last time that there were NOT double digit matches in Madrid that required super tie break finishes.
*Underdogs won nine matches in 2023. The high mark came at 3.94 (+294) in round one. Overall, four of the nine hits were large at 3.00 (+200) or better with three in round one. Only two dogs barked at the business end of the tournament (QF-SF-F) and they were small ones at 2.01 (+101) and 2.30 (+130). Those numbers seem to fluctuate over time, so there’s no big trend on underdogs as the tournament winds down. The best place to focus may well be round one in matches involving seeds.
SINGLES MINGLE
Here is a look at some of the “singles pairs” in Madrid this week that could make some noise.
Gauff-Townsend
Towsend is already done in singles, but this is an intriguing first time doubles pairing. Both have had plenty of doubles success with Gauff in the final here last year and both Americans showing the ability to win with various partners.
Kalinina-Yastremska
The Ukraine duo debuted in Miami and looked great with upsets of Dolehide-Krawczyk and Melichar Martinez/Perez. They’re in a rough part of the draw with (1)Hsieh-Mertens a potential round two foe, but they’ve already shown a good competitive spirit, so it might be more interesting than expected.
Boulter-Vondrousova
Two singles players ranked inside the top 30 and they started off with a nice win on Thursday in Madrid over Hozumi-Ninomiya. That was their first match together. Vondrousova is the more experienced doubles player of the two, making the semifinals early this year in Doha with Bouzkova. She was 17-9 overall in 2023 in doubles and a modest 4-2 this year.
Fernandez-Rus
Both players are done in singles. I’m not sure what their chances are with Kichenok-Ostapenko up first, but Fernandez has shown great skill as a doubles competitor and Rus has plenty of doubles experience to back her spot. Rus has struggled to find doubles wins in 2024 at 2-7, but she did go 17-4 on clay in doubles in 2023 (mostly ITF level).
Errani-Paolini
If you follow me, you’ll know the two Italians are a favorite pairing of mine. Errani is gone in singles, so her focus will be all on doubles now. This pair has already shown well in 2024 with a 9-4 record and a title in Linz. They’re always a dangerous unseeded duo to keep eyes on.
Pavlyuchenkova-Potapova
The two Russians return to doubles for the first time since pairing back in 2021. They made a semifinal in Istanbul in their only tournament together and it was on clay. Potapova has played more doubles of the two in 2024 with a 4-5 record, while Pavlyuchenkova has played just once.
SEEDS: ONE AND DONE WATCH (First Match Upset Watch)
(1)Hsieh-Mertens
While they are the top team in the WTA, they haven’t played on clay together since 2021. It was their worst surface at 2-3. They play a capable pair in Muhammad-Sutjiadi who debuted in Stuttgart and looked competitive in a super tie break loss. With the top seeds not having played since Miami, the layoff could be an equalizer in this one.
(5)Kichenok-Ostapenko
The plus is they get the first time pairing of Fernandez-Rus, but as I laid out above, both players are solid in doubles. Kichenok-Ostapenko struggled on clay last year (2-4), including an opening round loss in Madrid. They have lost twice in their openers in the last four tournaments played.
(7)Dolehide-Krawczyk
This is guess work with the 7th seeds going against Vekic-Vesnina. Yes, Elena Vesnina is back. The Russian had her second child last year and is attempting a comeback after not playing since 2021. She has made it well known that the comeback is geared towards playing at the Olympics this Summer. Vesnina is a former #1 doubles player who won three Grand Slam titles in women’s doubles as well as a Gold medal in 2016. The question obviously is how she’ll do in her first match and first match with Vekic, who hasn’t had a ton of success in doubles. Dolehide-Krawczyk have been struggling lately with opening losses in three of their last four tournaments.
(8)Bucsa-Sorribes Tormo
You’ve got the first time Spanish duo in a perilous spot to start. They battle Brazilians Gamarra-Haddad Maia, who will be pairing for the first time since 2020. The Brazilians are battle tested with a 7-2 record together and two titles at the ITF level. Gamarra has struggled to find doubles wins in 2024 at 2-8 with a variety of partners, while Haddad Maia has been solid at 9-3. Although it’s been four years since their last pairing, the feeling here is the Brazilians may well have an edge.
DRAW PREVIEW
TOP HALF
The first quarter houses (1)Hsieh-Mertens and (5)Kichenok-Ostapenko. It doesn’t look like a straight up collision course between the seeds for a semifinal berth. Hsieh-Mertens have to contend with possible rust after some time between tournaments and a tough matchup with Muhammad-Sutjiadi. Should they advance, there could be an equally tough time against the Ukraine duo of Kalanina-Yastremska. As for Kichenok-Ostapenko, the big pluses are having first time teams in their path early. Fernandez-Rus are up first and then it’s Boulter-Vondrousova waiting in R2. For me again, it’s round one that could be the trickiest. If the 5th seeds survive that, they likely make the quarterfinals. There’s a bigger part of me wondering about Hsieh-Mertens this week, so I’ll give Kichenok-Ostapenko the better shot and look to Kalanina-Yastremska as the super sleepers.
The second quarter looks wide open with some very good unseeded duos in this section. They’re highlighted by Miami champions Kennin-Mattek Sands, who won their opener on Thursday. They await the winner between (4)Gauff-Townsend and Bondar-Mihailkova. I’d expect that to be the American seeds. One thing you seem to be able to count on with Kenin-BMS is seeing super tie breaks as they’ve played five in their last six matches. The other half sees (6)Krejcikova-Siegemund already in round two. Round two looks like a potential blockbuster with Errani-Paolini or Andreeva-Zvonareva. Errani-Paolini will be favorites with the Russians playing for the first time together. Krejcikova-Siegemund are 8-1 this season with two semifinal withdrawals keeping them from having a final or title on their resume. This is a difficult quarter to pick with four teams looking the part.
There are plenty of unseeded duos in this half that could prevent a seed from getting to a final. I’ll rate Errani-Paolini and Kalanina-Yastremska as my top two in that category. Kenin-BMS have the pedigree, but they play with fire too much with the super tie breaks and sooner or later, those may start going against them. Seeds for me in this half are really a tough call. I like Krejcikova-Siegemund a lot, but they’re in the toughest quarter. Perhaps I’m overlooking the obvious in Hsieh-Mertens, but I’d rather shoot with Kichenok-Ostapenko in that quarter. Overall, this really looks like a superb and wide open half.
BOTTOM HALF
Quarter three has a much weaker look “by name” with the seeds (3)Stefani-Schuurs and (8)Bucsa-Torribes Sormo, but also shows plenty of unseeded danger too. Although Schuurs-Stefani have a nice season brewing, they have dropped their openers in two of their last three. I don’t think they get bit in this spot, but I’m not sure how strong I rate them overall moving onto clay. Wang-Zheng are waiting in round two after crushing Niculescu-Parks 6-1, 6-3. The Chinese duo has been tough to beat in limited play at 12-2 in their careers, so they look to pose a threat to the three seeds. In the other half, I already talked up the Spanish seeds potential trouble in round one against Gamarra-Haddad Maia. The 8th seeds perhaps shouldn’t be overlooked though with Bucsa showing nice chemistry with a rotation of partners in 2024, including Rakhimova, with that duo winning titles on clay in Bogota earlier this month. The team to keep an eye on in this part will be Chan-Kudermetova, who are fresh of a title run in Stuttgart. As long as they stay hot with an early win, it’s hard not to think they could keep it going this week. I tend to think the semifinalist here comes from this half with either Chan-Kudermetova or the survivor of that Spanish/Brazilian opener.
The final quarter might set up well for (2)Melichar-Martinez/Perez as the two seeds look to shake off some bad luck in Madrid. They lost their opener last year due to injury and 2022 saw they ousted in round two by Kichenok-Ostapenko. Theoretically, their draw looks better this time with Pavlyuchenkova-Potapova up first. Round two will see Kato-Kichenok in place for the winners. They won their opener over Olmos-Panova in a super tie break on Thursday. Melichar-Martinez/Perez have been very consistent the last two months with a pair of finals and semifinals in their last five played. As for (7)Dolehide-Krawczyk, they’re struggling, so even Vekic-Vesnina I see as a challenge early. If they can escape with a win, it may still be an uphill battle. Aoyama-Babos would be the ones to watch. The first time pairing features two very talented doubles players and Babos is on fire with three straight finals on clay with three different partners.
This bottom half may not have as much depth with the unseeded pairs, but Chan-Kudermetova and I think Gamarra-Haddad Maia and/or Aoyama-Babos could be world beaters. I have a hard time putting any of the seeds higher than Melichar-Martinez/Perez due to their recent consistency.
THE PIG’S DRAW PROJECTION
Q1 QF: Kalanina-Yastremska vs (5)Kichenok-Ostapenko
Q2 QF: Kenin-BMS vs (8)Krejcikova-Siegemund
Q3 QF: Chan-Kudermetova vs Wang-Zheng
Q4 QF: Aoyama-Babos vs (2)Melichar-Martinez/Perez
PIG PIX
Krejcikova-Siegemund
Chan-Kudermetova
Catch me on “X” @tennispig any time to talk doubles and yes, I’ll still give a singles opinion when you ask. Look for PIGPIX posted daily and let’s get people to #WatchMoreDoubles in 2024!
DOUBLES TOURNAMENT PREVIEWS & PICKS 