BMW OPEN: NOTABLES & TRENDS
*Erler-Miedler were surprise winners here a year ago when they knocked off (1)Krawietz-Puetz in the title match as 2.56 (+156) underdogs. They were the first unseeded champions in Munich since Frederik Nielsen and Tim Puetz in 2019. It was also the first straight sets final at this stop since 2019 as well with the previous two in 2021 and 2022 needing super tie breaks to settle.
*The Erler-Miedler dog win in the final was one of only four underdog wins in 2023 out of 14 matches played. The other three all came in the opening round with the largest at 4.04 (+304) when Olivetti-O’Connell knocked off (4)Melo-Peers. Not coincidentally, both of the other two dog hits in round one also involved seeds losing. Round one could be your best spot to look for dog hits with at least one seed losing in three of the last four runs in Munich.
*Unseeded duos have been a staple in the semifinals in Munich recently. Eight of the last 12 semifinalists have been unseeded. That’s not terribly surprising for these 250 events where the seeds might not be as strong and you see some experienced combos making runs. There are quite a few pairs this year that look like they could cause some trouble, something I will highlight later in the draw preview section.
*Super tie breaks were sparse in 2023 with only three needed. 2019 is the last time there have been more that four matches with super tie break finishes. There were seven needed that year. I’m not sure there’s much rhyme or reason to the low number in recent times, but round one again might be your best spot to look for these too. There have been at least two STBs in round one in five straight runs of this tournament dating back to 2018.
*Kevin Krawietz has made a habit of being in the final in his home country. The German has been involved in each of the last three finals in Munich. Last year with Puetz, in 2022 he won the titles with Andreas Mies and in 2021 he was a champion alongside Wesley Koolhof.
SINGLES MINGLE
Whether you see it as good or bad, the smaller events often will feature far fewer singles players taking part in doubles. Munich fits that bill, but there are a few guys pulling double duty that bear watching this week.
Mies-Struff
Mies is the doubles specialist in this duo, but Struff we’ve seen with plenty of success in singles and doubles. Struff is 4-0 in doubles in 2024 with all of those coming in a glorious championship run in Dubai alongside Tailon Griekspoor. Mies and Struff have never paired up, but both players have shown the ability to mesh with different partners, so I’ve got my eyes on these guys as potential dark horses.
Hanfmann-Koepfer
Another all-German pairing to focus on this week is Hanfmann-Koepfer. They were semifinalists here in 2021 and have shown great chemistry with a 9-3 career mark together. You may have forgotten, but these two surprised their way to a semifinal at the Australian Open this year. They have a chance to score an upset early with (2)Lammons-Withrow as their openers.
SEEDS: ONE AND DONE WATCH (First Match Upset Watch)
(2)Lammons-Withrow
Well, just as I mentioned, the Americans have a dangerous round one clash set with Hanfmann-Koepfer. This is definitely not the most comfortable surface for Lammons-Withrow with a 14-17 record in their careers on clay. They played here a year ago for the first time and lost their opener against Bhambri-Myneni. Odds makers certainly think a repeat of their trouble could be in the cards with this opening match labelled right about a pick ’em.
(3)Gille-Vliegen
The question for the Belgians will be if the can come down off of Cloud Nine after taking their biggest titles ever in Monte-Carlo. That Masters 1000 featured wins over Dodig-Krajicek, Krawietz-Puetz AND Granollers-Zeballos. They’re now 7-1 on clay in 2024 and did make the finals here in 2021. Success can be fleeting in doubles however and a tough match-up against Bhambri-Olivetti in round one is on tap. That duo made the semis in Marrakech in their first tournament together with two of three matches going to super tie breaks. I expect them to push for a win against the seeds in this one.
DRAW PREVIEW
TOP HALF
Quarter one is where you’ll find (1)Krawietz-Puetz locked and loaded. The Germans have now made it to at least the quarterfinals in six of their seven tournaments in 2024. It’s difficult pointing out the potential road blocks in this quarter. You do have some veterans here with Daniell-Oswald teaming up and Demoliner-Melo. The problem there is both pairs have had minimal match play together and are rotating in from different partners. The team that could surprise is Arribage-Cornea. They’ve played nothing but Challengers this year, but have shown well on clay at 9-3 with a pair of titles. They are getting love from the odds makers too as basically a pick ’em against Demoliner-Melo to start. Don’t totally discount them if they get a shot at the top seeds with Arribage-Cornea beating Arneodo-Weissborn this year and and narrowly losing a super tie break at the Madrid Challenger to red hot Heliovaara-Patten last week.
Quarter two looks very open and with the potential to produce an unseeded semifinalist. Behar-Pavlasek are the seeds in this section and they do have winnable opener against inexperienced German wild cards Haupt-Top. Behar-Pavlasek have lost their opener in three of their last five, but this seems a good spot to avoid that scenario. They were very good on clay last year at 15-5. The match opposite this one is the one I want to see with Mies-Struff battling Frantzen-Jebens. Frantzen-Jebens are mostly Challenger-types, but they have had success together. It’s been a bit of a struggle this season at 9-12 though with a 1-3 mark on clay. They did win six Challengers on clay in 2023, but have had trouble finding wins up at the ATP main draw level. Mies-Struff would look the best shot perhaps as unseeded trouble makers then in this quarter.
BOTTOM HALF
Quarter three could be very competitive with (3)Gille-Vliegen as the seeds. There’s nothing easy about this quarter for the Belgians, starting with Bhambri-Olivetti. Should they survive, they could see Aussies John Peers and JP Smith in the quarterfinals. The Aussies do have experience together, but none since 2021. They get Galloway-King who are 11-6 all-time together, but haven’t paired since 2018. So which pairing finds their footing here? I really think you can make the case for any of these pairs to advance. Certainly Gille-Vliegen are the favorites to do so, but I do want to see how they follow up a huge accomplishment. Bhambri-Olivetti might be the sneaky outsider to monitor the most.
(2)Lammons-Withrow are the seeds in the final quarter, but seem fairly unlikely to get out of this section. They start with Hanfmann-Koepfer, who could well end their time in Munich in round one. Erler-Miedler are also in this section, so you’ve got the defending champs here too, although they face a stiff challenge against Andreozzi-Reyes Varela to open. Andreozzi-RV have been on fire on the Challenger level with a 9-2 mark on clay. That match could be a bigger battle than most expect. Erler-Miedler have stepped up this year with finals on clay in Rio and Marrakech, so a loss would be disappointing. My only real surprise here is if Lammons-Withrow made it to the semifinals, otherwise the unseeded duos all have a shot in my opinion.
PIG’S DRAW PROJECTION
Q1 QF: (1)Krawietz-Puetz vs Arribage-Cornea
Q2 QF: (4)Behar-Pavlasek vs Mies-Smith
Q3 QF: Peers-Smith vs Bhambri-Olivetti
Q4 QF: Erler-Miedler vs Hanfmann-Koepfer
PIG PIX
Krawietz-Puetz
Hanfmann-Koepfer
Catch me on “X” @tennispig any time to talk doubles! Look for PIGPIX posted daily and let’s get people to #WatchMoreDoubles in 2024!
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DOUBLES TOURNAMENT PREVIEWS & PICKS 