MONTE-CARLO MASTERS: NOTABLES & TRENDS
*Dodig-Krajicek are the defending champions after outlasting Arneodo-Weissborn in the final last year 6-0, 4-6, 14-12. They were massive favorites in the finale at 1.31 (-323). Their victory continued a now five-year run for seeds taking the title. The last unseeded champions came in 2017, when Bopanna-Cuevas won as 2.49 (+149) in the championship match. 2023 also marked the fourth straight super tie break finish in the finale.
*Even though seeds have been raising the trophies, unseeded duos have been an integral part of the business end of the tournament in Monte-Carlo. Last year, three of the four semifinalists were unseeded. You have to go back to 2010 to find a final four in Monte-Carlo that has featured all seeds. We’ve also seen an unseeded finalist in three of the last four runs at Monte-Carlo.
*Three seeds went one and done here a year ago with two of those being among the top four seeds overall. Each of the last five runs in Monte-Carlo have seen at least one top four seed go down in their opener. Rounds one and two appear to be your best place to focus on underdog scores early as a result. Seven of last year’s ten underdog wins came in those first two rounds. Seven of 2022’s nine underdog scores also came in the opening round and the round of 16. 2021 saw seven of eight dog victories coming in those same two rounds, so there is a solid trend in looking to those matches.
*The largest dog hit came in the round of 16 last year at 3.26 (+226) when Arneodo-Weissborn knocked off (2)Ram-Salisbury. The biggest in 2022 was also in that round when Melo-Zverev upended (4)Herbert-Mahut at 2.72 (+172). The monster dog hit of the last three years came in round one back in 2021 when the Tsitsipas brothers took down (8)Krawietz-Tecau as 5.26 (+426) dogs in round one. Again, the first two rounds have been a more consistent source if you’re a dog hunter, so do your thing in those rounds.
*Super tie break finishes numbered eleven in 2023 out of 26 completed matches. That was the exact same number as 2022 with those eleven coming in 25 completed matches. 2021 was the largest in recent times with 14 super tie break finishes. There have been at least ten super tie break finishes each year in Monte-Carlo since 2018. Round one is a great place to look for these with at least five in each of the four years since the field expanded in 2019.
*Heading into this week, Bopanna-Ebden hold a massive 1,175 point lead over Koolhof-Mektic for the top spot in the rankings. Bolelli-Vavassori remain a solid third place in the race, just 75 points back of 2nd place, but 550 ahead of Granollers-Zeballos in fourth. All four teams are in the draw in Monte-Carlo.
SINGLES MINGLE
There are quite a few “singles pairs” in this week’s draw with a few in action on Sunday’s opening day. Let’s focus on the winner of one of those matches and the best of the rest to keep your eyes on in Monte-Carlo.
Khachanov-Rublev
The Russians triumphed over another Russian pair in Medvedev-Safiullin on Sunday to open play. These two are one of the more regular singles pairs that play throughout the year at bigger events. They are now 3-2 on the season and will seek to push past the round of 16 for the first time in four tries in Monte-Carlo. They nearly did that last year, losing 14-12 to Koolhof-Skupski in a super tie break.
Jarry-Musetti
A pair of top 25 singles players team up here for the first time. For Jarry, it’s only his second doubles match of 2024, while Musetti is 4-3 in doubles play. Musetti made a final on Doha alongside Sonego, so there’s some talent there to monitor. Also, four of Musetti’s last five matches in doubles have required super tie break finishes. They have a tough draw against Gonzalez-Molteni in R1, but that’s also a team that arrives in a slump with three straight losses.
Griekspoor-Hurkacz
This pair showed their dangerous side back at Indian Wells when they teamed up for the first time and took Dodig-Krajicek to a 10-7 super tie break loss. Keep an eye on them if they take out fellow singles pair, Etcheverry-Cerundolo, which would line them up against (4)Ram-Salisbury in the round of 16. That’s a place that Ram-Salisbury have lost two of the last three trips to Monte-Carlo. I do wonder how much gas Hurkacz will have in the tank after a long week in Estoril and now pulling double duty in Monte-Carlo.
Fritz-Rune
An odd couple for sure, but one that also took two wins here a year ago before pulling out in the quarterfinals. They beat Mektic-Pavic in one of those matches, so you have to keep an eye on these two. It’s Glasspool-Rojer first-up who have only lost their opener twice in eight tournaments.
Sinner-Sonego
The Italians split a pair of matches at Indian Wells earlier in the year to bring their record to 5-2 in limited doubles play together. You’d imagine this could be a potential Olympic duo and one that has been a very difficult out. There is a chance they could be the opener for the defending champs if they outwork Gille-Vliegen in round one.
SEEDS: ONE AND DONE WATCH (First Match Upset Watch)
(2)Dodig-Krajicek
Regardless of whether it’s Gille-Vliegen or Sinner-Sonego, the opener for the defending champs could be tough. The seeds do come in good form after making the Miami final and I am certain would prefer Gille-Vliegen, whom they have beaten three of three career meetings. The Belgians have failed to escape round one each of their two previous trips, losing in super tie breaks both times. Sinner-Sonego for me may be the more dangerous pair.
(3)Granollers-Zeballos
This pair were unexpectedly strong at the Sunshine Double events, two tournaments that they had traditionally struggled at in the past. This year, they went 7-2 combined. Since making the semis in Monte-Carlo in 2021, they have gone in the wrong direction, culminating in a one and done loss last year to Schwartzman-Sinner. They are 3-2 so far in 2024 on clay with a trip to the Buenos Aires final as their best work. They’ll get the survivor of Murray-Venus vs Lammons-Withrow in round two. Despite Murray-Venus’ opening loss here last year, they are the more accomplished duo on clay and would appear to be the bigger threat.
(4)Ram-Salisbury
They won the titles here in 2022, but have crashed out in the round of 16 the other two times they’ve played in this Masters event. They looked better in Miami with a quarterfinal, but still don’t seem to be fully locked in so far in 2024 at 9-4. They lost their lone clay court match this year in Rio. I’d fancy Griekspoor-Hurkacz as the bigger threat in round two.
(5)Gonzalez-Skupski
Another difficult draw with Mahut and Roger-Vasselin as the opposition to start. Gonzalez-Skupski lost both openers in the Sunshine Double after dropping the final in Acapulco, so they arrive on a three match losing skid. Mahut-ERV finally won back-to-back matches in 2024 with a quarterfinal push at Indian Wells, which was their last action. The French have only played one match on clay together since 2017 and it was a loss. Still, this looks like a real toss up IF Mahut’s elbow injury has healed.
(7)Koolhof-Mektic
This is a tough draw with Nys-Zielinski in round one. Koolhof-Mektic were surprising early losers in Miami to Smith-Verbeek, a late substitution, after the pair had won the titles in Indian Wells. This will be the 7th seeds first run on clay since making the 2020 semifinals at the French Open. Nys-Zielinksi crashed out in round one last year against Dodig-Krajicek. They have gone down in their opener in two of their last four tournaments, so this one is intriguing to say the least.
DRAW PREVIEW
TOP HALF
Bopanna-Ebden lead the first quarter as the top seeds and they’re set to go against Arevalo-Pavic in their round two opener. Arevalo-Pavic survived R1 against Dimitrov-Korda. Arevalo-Pavic have had a tough time winning back to back matches since their opening run to the titles in Hong Kong. They have now won consecutive matches since the Australian Open, a stretch of four straight tournaments. They’ve had trouble beating top tier teams, so Bopanna-Ebden are the picks to advance. In the other quadrant in this quarter, (8)Gonzalez-Molteni are the seeds. They battle Jarry-Musetti to start. Clay should favor the seeds, but they’ve been pedestrian on the surface after winning the titles in Cordoba. They’re 1-2 on clay since then and 1-4 overall. Jarry-Musetti may indeed have a shot to score the upset and note that those last four losses for Gonzalez-Molteni have all been in super tie breaks. The survivor seems likely to meet Bolelli-Vavassoru who square off against Rinderknech and Monaco’s own Valentin Vacherot. Rinderknech did work to a title win in doubles this year at the Quimper Challenger indoors and he’s had some sporadic success in doubles, but this might be asking too much with a less experienced partner. Bolelli-Vavassori had the brutal draw in Miami against Bopanna-Ebden, but may get another shot at them this week on a surface that has been good to them. The Italians are 6-1 on clay in 2024 and 12-4 together on it in their careers.
The second quarter features (4)Ram-Salisbury and (7)Koolhof-Mektic. The four seeds will face off with either Griekspoor-Hurkacz or Etcheverry-Cerundolo. Ram-Salisbury lost their lone clay match in 2024 with an odd stop in Rio, so it will be interesting to see if they can flip the switch on the more traditional Euro swing. They did win the titles here in 2022, but were bounced in their opener in 2023. I rate Griekspoor-Hurkacz as the key threat against them, one capable of an upset in my estimation if Hubi has enough left after his Estoril run this past week. The bottom half of the quarter looks wide open. Koolhof-Mektic will look to get back on track this week after losing in round two in Miami. They have a potential roadblock to start with Nys-Zielinski. Nys-Zielinski have been consistent in 2024, but have dropped tough opening matchups in two of their last four tournaments. I’m expecting a good battle, but do give Koolhof-Mektic the edge. The winner sees Glasspool-Rojer or Fritz-Rune. I talked up Fritz-Rune earlier with their two wins in Monte-Carlo last year. They certainly have a shot here against Glasspool-Rojer who have a penchant for going the distance so far with eleven of their 18 matches needing a decider. Koolhof-Mektic are the class in this half, but that didn’t help them in Miami. I would not be surprised if this secton went to an unseeded pair. I also would not be surprised to see Koolhof-Mektic get back to business and make a big run, but I’m going against that this first week on clay for them.
The top two teams in the race could feasibly make it through to a semifinal clash with Bopanna-Ebden and Koolhof-Mektic, but there is A LOT of clutter and very noisy clutter at that in between anything like that happening. I probably trust Bopanna-Ebden more, even with another battle against Bolelli-Vavassory possible. Ram-Salisbury might be the sneaky seeded pick to sneak into the semis, but I can’t discount the plethora of unseeded danger duos in that quarter. The Glasspool-Rojer/Fritz-Rune survivor sticks out as one to watch and I still think Griekspoor-Hurkacz are a big time threat.
BOTTOM HALF
Quarter three has an insane amount of talent in it. You’ve got the seeds in Granollers-Zeballos and Gonzalez-Skupski, and then four of the other five pairs and regular teams with plenty of juice to come through this section. Let’s start with the Granollers-Zeballos half, where the three seeds face a tricky opener. They wait for the winner between Murray-Venus and Lammons-Withrow. Lammons-Withrow stumbled in their first work on clay in Houston, losing to Harris-Hiikata in straight sets. It’s definitely not their preferred surface as they sit under .500 on clay in their careers. Murray-Venus meanwhile have shown winnability on dirt with an 18-7 mark on clay. They did crash out in their opener in MC last year and have not played since withdrawing from Indian Wells in round two due to an abdominal injury to Murray. The long layoff and new surface will be tough, but Murray-Venus have found the win column in four of six career meetings between these two teams. That includes each of the last three dating back to Madrid in 2023, but they did need super tie breaks to settle two of those and four of the six overall have had STB endings. I think that could be in the cards again given Murray-Venus’ layoff and lack of match play.
The Gonzalez-Skupski portion of this half open with the seeds facing Frenchmen Mahut and Roger-Vasselin. They have been out of action since Indian Wells, when Mahut’s elbow injury caused the duo to withdraw. The match opposite of theirs is intriguing with last year’s surprise finalists, Arneodo-Weissborn, taking on another French pair in Humbert-Martin. Arneodo-Weissborn have been solid, but not spectacular in 2024 at 10-8 between ATP and Challenger play. They come in off a semifinal showing in Estoril. Humbert-Martin played their lone match together at Indian Wells, a 7-6, 6-3 loss to Murray-Venus. I expect they’ll make the Austrians work and perhaps might have a shot to get a win if things stay tight. Gonzalez-Skupski carry that three match losing skid into this one, so they need to get rid of that in R1. Up until the Masters swing in Indian Wells and Miami, they had been consistent. With their questions now, this part of the draw looks wide open with none of the teams carrying in the best form. Arneodo-Weissborn could be ones to monitor again, but I think Gonzalez-Skupski could be the keys if they can stop that losing streak.
The final quarter houses the defending champs, Dodig-Krajicek. Their round two opener is one to look at as mentioned earlier with either Gille-Vliegen or Sinner-Sonego. Again, my contention here is the Italian combo is a much more threatening test. Dodig-Krajicek have beaten Gille-Vliegen pretty routinely each time they’ve met, so I’m not thinking the Belgians would turn it around in this spot. The other half of this quarter already has Khachanov-Rublev in round two, waiting for either the other seed (6)Krawietz-Puetz or Bublik-Mannarino. Those two met at Indian Wells with the Germans escaping a 7-6, 7-6 battle. Krawietz-Puetz continue to be an unsung duo for me at 12-6 in 2024 with semifinals both in Indian Wells and Miami. They have lost their opener just once in six tournaments. The Germans also made the semifinals here a year ago, so I’m looking at them to be the team that may give Dodig-Krajicek the most trouble. They took them to a 10-7 super tie break loss in Miami in their last action, the second time in three career meetings that they pushed Dodig-Krajicek to a decider before losing.
The bottom half definitely looks prone to at least one unseeded team grabbing a semifinal slot and I think that third quarter is the best shot for that to happen. Murray-Venus, Arneodo-Weissborn and maybe even Mahut-ERV (if healthy) could be in the mix for that spot. While Dodig-Krajicek have a challenging draw, they have heated up nicely with wins in nine of their last 12 overall. I’d give them the slight edge in quarter four, but watch out for Krawietz-Puetz to challenge for that spot and the Sinner-Sonego combination I still have a nice dark horse to keep your eyes on.
THE PIG’S DRAW PROJECTION
Q1 QF: (1)Bopanna-Ebden vs Bolelli-Vavassori
Q2 QF: (4)Ram-Salisbury vs (7)Koolhof-Mektic
Q3 QF: Arneodo-Weissborn vs (5)Granollers-Zeballos
Q4 QF: Khachanov-Rublev vs (2)Dodig-Krajicek
PIG PIX
Koolhof-Mektic
Granollers-Zeballos
Catch me on “X” @tennispig any time to talk doubles! Look for PIGPIX posted daily and let’s get people to #WatchMoreDoubles in 2024!
LAST WEEK’S PIGPIX
DOUBLES TOURNAMENT PREVIEWS & PICKS 