US MEN’S CLAY COURT CHAMPSIONSHIPS: NOTABLES & TRENDS
*Thompson-Purcell are back to try and defend their 2023 titles in Houston. The Aussies won the title match as short favorites of 1.77 (-130). They were one of three unseeded teams to make the semifinals last season at this stop. Three of the last four champions in Houston have been unseeded and there hasn’t been an all-seeded final here since 2014. If Max Purcell is involved in another doubles title in Houston, it would mark his third straight season to win at this stop. Purcell-Thompson are seeking to become back-to-back champions with the Bryans as the only others to do it. The doubles legends won three straight from 2009 to 2011 in Houston.
*Despite the note above about all the unseeded duos in the semis, seeds did not falter early in Houston. It was the quarterfinal round (2nd match) where three of the four seeds dropped out in 2023. Two of those accounted for half of the four underdog wins at this tournament last year. That was down significantly from eight underdog wins in 2022 with two seeds out in round one. And the previous run pre-COVID in 2019 also saw seven dogs bite overall with no seeds losing their openers.
*The quarterfinals are an intriguing spot to look at the underdogs. Four of the last eight QFs in Houston have gone to the dogs. That includes a massive 5.14 (+414) hit for the Sabanov brothers over Kyrgios-Sock in 2022. It’s been tough to find anything more than slight dog wins in the title match at this event. Gonzalez-Qureshi were the last in 2019 as 2.05 (+105) dogs. Prior to that, it was 2016 as the last dog win in the Houston finale with Berankis-Basilashvili taking the titles as 2.40 (+140) dogs.
*Super tie breaks accounted for five of the 13 completed results in Houston in 2023. That matched the number in 2022 where all 15 matches were completed. The best place to look for the STBs seemingly is round one, where seven match tie breaks have taken place in the last two runs in Houston out of 16 matches. Three of those involved seeds.
*The top seeds won here in 2022 when Matt Ebden and Max Purcell were teaming up. That was the first time the #1 seeds won in Houston since 2016. This year’s top seeds are Austin Krajicek and Rajeev Ram. They’ve paired up plenty together despite not being regular partners. Their lone match together this year was a Davis Cup win back in February. Overall, they’re 19-5 as a pair with one ATP title back in 2018 indoors in Moscow.
SINGLES MINGLE
As a 250 event, there are few spot for the singles players, but still a few pairs to keep your eyes on this week.
Mmoh-Tiafoe
The Americans took a wildcard entry into doubles this week. They do have a few matches together in their careers, but they have not paired up since 2018. Tiafoe has played doubles sporadically at Houston over the years with a couple of nice runs with Dustin Brown. This will be his first doubles match of 2024 and Mmoh’s first since 2021.
Shelton-Andrade
Ben Shelton is back on the doubles court again this week. He’s teaming with Ecuadoran, Andres Andrade. Andrade has played 14 doubles matches in 2024, but almost all have been at the Futures level. Shelton scored his fourth doubles win of 2024 last week in Miami paired with Christopher Eubanks. This could be a sneaky team to watch, especially with a lot of pairs either not having played on clay at all or not much at all.
Darderi-Etcheverry
Darderi has played well on clay in singles, see Cordoba, but what of his doubles prowess? He’s split two Challenger matches this year on clay and has played most of his doubles at that level with mixed results. Etcheverry has generally been miserable in doubles with losses in 21 of his last 23. That’s not to indicate he cannot be competitive though as three of his four doubles matches in 2024 have gone to super tie breaks.
Harris-Hijikata
Only Hijikata is pulling doubles duty for this duo. The two Aussies broke out with a bang in their debut together last year with a title run at the Cary Challenger. Two matches after that on the ATP level yielded losses, but they do have some chemistry. Playing a team in (2)Lammons-Withrow in round one might seem harsh, but given that the seeds often play a lot of tight sets, the Aussies may indeed push them to the end.
SEEDS: ONE AND DONE WATCH (First Match Upset Watch)
(2)Lammons-Withrow
The Americans split two matches in Houston last year, losing to the eventual champions Purcell-Thompson in the quarterfinals. Clay generally has not been their best surface with a career mark of 13-15 on dirt. Facing the Aussies, Harris-Hijikata, is an intriguing opener. While the Aussies don’t have a lot of match play together, they have shown enough chemistry in their limited actiont that this switch in surface from hard to clay could be an equalizer that gives them a real chance to pull an upset.
(3)Cash-Galloway
I really think this team is underrated, but they only have a couple of matches on clay to their credit. They did look pretty solid in Rio as they knocked off Ram-Salisbury and took an accomplished team in Doumbia-Reboul to a super tie break in a loss. They have been apart since the Phoenix Challenger with Galloway not getting into Miami and Cash playing with Griekspoor. They draw a first time pair with Shelton-Andrade, which could negate some worry, but their propensity for super tie breaks (10) in 2024 could make this a tighter affair than expected.
DRAW PREVIEW
TOP HALF
The question in this first quarter is obviously how quickly Krajicek-Ram can transition from playing with their usual partners. Throw in the surface switch and it’s a lot to handle. Still, I would be surprised if they dropped their opener to Begemann-Balaji. Those two do have plenty of reps on the Challenger circuit, but they’re scuffling at 2-6 in 2024. Their best work last year as a tandem came indoors where they ran off 13 wins in 15 matches, but I think the step up in class here will be too much. The match opposite of that features the all-Indian duo of Kadhe-Nedunchezhiyan. The Indians have played fairly well at Challengers with a couple of semifinals and a final a few weeks again on clay in Murcia. They play a first time pair in Daniell-Martinez and should have the edge. The Indians seem to be the only team here that might possible give the top seeds a tough time, but even then, I have a hard time to taking Krajicek-Ram to move into the semifinals.
The other quarter houses the defending champions (4)Purcell-Thompson. The Aussies win here last year was their first ATP doubles title together and all they’ve done is continue to win. They are a combined 24-7 since the start of 2023 with two more titles in 2024. They get one of my favorite guys, J.P. Smith, and Evan King in round one. This will be their first time pairing up and that’s not a great spot going against a team playing at the level of Purcell-Thompson. The other match in this quarter is interesting with regulars Chandrasekar-Prasanth going against Mmoh-Tiafoe. The Indian duo has struggled a bit in 2024 at 5-10, including 1-3 on clay. They have also not had great luck at the ATP level at 1-5 this year. They’ve been given a pretty solid underdog tag at around 2.45 (+145) for this match, so oddsmakers at least are expected the American duo to take this one. I don’t know if I buy that theory with Mmoh so short on doubles experience and Tiafoe struggling in general these days for wins. Either way, I don’t see either posing a sizeable risk to Purcell-Thompson, who both know how to manage playing singles and doubles at the same tournament. See Los Cabos if you don’t know.
It may be foolish to go with chalk in this half, but I am having a difficult time finding teams that match up against Krajicek-Ram or Purcell-Thompson. Maybe Kadhe-Nedunchezhiyan get the dark horse label if Krajicek-Ram struggle to find their chemistry together, but otherwise, it looks like we could get a blockbuster semifinal in this half.
BOTTOM HALF
Cash-Galloway are the seeds to lead quarter three. The team that sticks out as one to watch here is Blumberg-Peers. It’s a first time pairing of two quality doubles players. It also could be the beginning of a nomadic period for John Peers with the Heliovaara-Peers partnership apparently over already in 2024. Heliovaara keeps an online blog and he’s been pretty open that their styles were too similar and he feels that is what has led to less-than-stellar results this year. As a result, I believe if I understand correctly, he approached Peers with the idea to split. Heliovaara is in Marrakech this week teaming with Henry Patten. I’ve said it previously with Blumberg at these smaller tournaments, he seems to find himself making deep runs with a variety of partners. They play a young duo in Matuszewski-Romios who are 5-3 this year with a Challenger title on hard courts in New Delhi. The question will be if they can win their ATP debut. Knowing each other’s game better, they could well push for an upset in round one. As for Cash-Galloway, it’s all about getting back on court together. Shelton-Andrade are an obvious unknown and for that reason, you still have to favor the seeds, even if they don’t have many reps on clay in their careers. For me, this is one of the quarters I look at and see an unseeded duo having a realistic shot because Cash-Galloway play so many close matches. I’ll be keeping my eyes on Blumberg-Peers.
The final quarter shows (2)Lammons-Withrow as the seeds. The Americans have played a bit better of late after a lull in the Middle East swing saw them go one and done in both Dubai and Doha. They also lost their opener in Dallas this year, so that’s three one and dones out of nine tournaments. I think their biggest match could be the opener against the Aussie duo of Harris-Hijikata. Going on clay for the first time and playing a capable team will be a challenge. The survivor should have a edge for the semifinal spot, but do watch out for Romboli-Zormann. This is a Challenger doubles duo that has played a lot of clay court tennis. They’re 8-5 on clay this year and got their feet wet at the ATP level with opening losses at Cordoba and Santiago. Those came against teams who made deep runs. They should have a shot against Darderi-Ethcheverry (I think) and perhaps getting that maiden ATP win would give them a boost moving forward. I’m not totally sold on Lammons-Withrow in this section, so I’m looking at the Aussies or potentially Rombolo-Zormann as a super dark horse pick.
I feel like this bottom half is going to have some unexpected results. Neither seed is quite at home on clay, although perfectly capable of doing damage at a 250 type event that doesn’t have all the top tier teams in play. The Blumberg-Peers pairing intrigues me and it’s all about whether their styles blend or clash. Harris-Hijikata and maybe further out, Romboli-Zormann, could also be unseeded pairs that surprise in this half.
THE PIG’S DRAW PROJECTION
Q1 QF: (1)Krajicek-Ram vs Kadhe-Nedunchezdiyan
Q2 QF: (4)Purcell-Thompson vs Chandrasekar-Prashanth
Q3 QF: Blumberg-Peers vs (3)Cash-Galloway
Q4 QF: Romboli-Zormann vs Harris-Hijikata
PIG PIX
Purcell-Thompson
Blumberg-Peers
Catch me on “X” @tennispig any time to talk doubles! Look for PIGPIX posted daily and let’s get people to #WatchMoreDoubles in 2024!
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DOUBLES TOURNAMENT PREVIEWS & PICKS 