WTA Miami Preview

MIAMI OPEN NOTABLES & TRENDS

*Gauff-Pegula are the defending champions. They were firm 1.50 (-200) favorites when they defeated Fernandez-Townsend in the final in straight sets. That marked the 8th straight run in Miami where the women’s final went down in two sets. 2014 was the last time that a super tie break was necessary when Hingis-Lisicki outlasted Makarova-Venina for the titles. As the two seeds, Gauff-Pegula were the highest seeded winners since Hingis-Mirza won as the top seeds in 2015.

*Two of the four semifinalists in 2023 were unseeded. That was the fifth straight run in Miami with two unseeded pairs in the final four. There has been at least one unseeded pair in the semis each year here since 2009. There has been an unseeded finalist in five of the last six Miami Opens with four unseeded champions in that stretch. Siegemund-Zvonareva were the last in 2022 as 2.87 (+187) underdogs in the final.

*Seeds fared okay early with only two eliminated in round one in 2023. There were three one and done seeds in 2022 and three more in 2021. Top four seeds have been the ones you can count on being in that mix however. In those last three years, four of those last eight R1 losses were hung on a top four seed.

*2023 featured 13 super tie break finishes in 31 completed matches. Eight of those came in the 16 first round matches. That was up slightly from 12 super tie breaks in 2022 and nine in 2021. The quarterfinals have been a good place to look for these in the last two years with six of the last eight quarterfinals needing a super tie break to settle.

*Underdog wins were slim last year with only seven total. The two biggest came at 3.71 (+271) in round one and 3.15 (+215) in round two. Both belonged to Begu-Kalinina. That was down from eleven in 2022 and eight in 2021. 3.71 (+271) and 3.62 (+262) are the two largest dog scores over the last three runs in Miami.

SINGLES MINGLE

As usual, the women’s draw doesn’t feature as many “singles pairings” to look at, but here are a few that stand out as one’s to watch in Miami.

Gauff-Pegula
Even though they are more of a “regular” pair at this point, it’s still worth noting because they are two of the top singles stars. They played their first tournament together last time out in Indian Wells with a quarterfinal finish. They had solid wins over Kenin and Mattek-Sands as well as Dolehide-Krawczyk. They ran into the Indian Wells loving Shibahara-Muhammad though in the quarters, losing 6-4, 6-2. Miami has been a tough place to win consecutive doubles titles with the last back-to-back champions coming back in 2006-2007 when Lisa Raymond and Sam Stosur did the trick. Martina Hingis and the great Jana Novotna were the only pair to repeat, doing so in the first two years of this tournament in 1998 and 1999.

Keys-Stearns
This is a first time combo that has some potential. Stearns has paired up with both Caroline Dolehide and Sloane Stephens in doubles play this year. Even at just 2-3 in limited action, Stearns’ partnerships have forced deciding sets in four of those five. Keys hasn’t played doubles since 2023 when she went 1-3. She paired with legendary Sania Mirza, Dolehide and Jen Brady last year. With Brady, Keys scored her lone win in Washington, DC and they nearly took out Aoyama-Dabrowski in the next round. Keys may not be someone you normally think of with doubles prowess, but don’t forget she made the French Open semifinals in 2022 with Taylor Townsend. They’re unfortunate to be near the top seeds in the draw, but they could sneak out a win in round one to at least set their sites on Hsieh-Mertens.

Errani-Paolini
I’ll include the Italians even though Errani didn’t make it out of qualiying in singles, so she’s only playing doubles. Still, this duo has already proven their merit by winning titles in Linz back in early February. They’re 6-2 on the season and certainly pose some danger as evidenced by their plucky loss to Hsieh-Mertens at the Australian Open in round three 3-6, 6-3, 7-5. They should be a tough out again.

Kalinina-Yastremska
The all-Ukraine duo pairs up for the first time. Kalinina has played doubles frequently to supplement her singles in 2024. She has a semifinal in Doha to show for it. She may have to carry the heavier part of the load with Yastremska playing doubles for the first time this season in Miami. Neither has an extensive history of success in doubles with both around .500 as pros, but they have had some decent results here and there in their careers. I don’t expect much though as they go against a regular pair in Dolehide-Krawcyzk to start.

Kudermetova-Potapova
A pair of top 30 singles players team up here and look to see what they can do. Neither has done much this year with a combined 4-7 mark in doubles, but Kudermetova we know is a skilled doubles player. She made the WTA Elite Trophy Finals and paired up with Haddad Maia to win the titles. She also made the quarterfinals of the French Open and won the Dubai title with Samsonova. They’ll be up against it playing Melichar-Martinez/Perez in round one, but I wouldn’t rule out that being a competitive battle with some potential for an upset despite the great form of the seeds.

SEEDS: ONE AND DONE WATCH (First Match Upset Watch)

(4)Melichar-Martinez/Perez
I talked it up a little earlier with this veteran pairing taking on a potentially tough singles duo in Kudermetova-Potapova. MM-Perez have been in great form the last three tournaments with a runner-up finish in Dubai, a title run in San Diego and a semifinal showing last time out at Indian Wells. So why would I put them on the upset watch? Five of their last seven matches have needed super tie break finishes. Those thin margins can catch up with you sometimes, so I think this opener bears watching.

(8)Siegemund-Xu
Siegemund is a really nice doubles player who has been partner swapping the last few tournaments. This is her first run with Xu, who has also played with multiple partners in 2024. Her best result was in Doha with Kalinina where they made the semifinals. Even though Siegemund has shown the ability this year to win with just about everyone, this is a tough spot for a maiden partnership to take on Danilina-Zhang who have a 4-4 record this year. I wouldn’t say they’re a high quality team, but with more reps to their credit, they may be able to give the #8 seeds a tough time in round one.

DRAW PREVIEW

TOP HALF

The world #1s come in fresh off the Indian Wells titles as Hsieh-Mertens cemented their status last week as the top team on the WTA Tour. They did not a drop a set en route to those titles. Their quarter looks pretty straight forward with Schuurs-Stefani as the other seeds. They’ve already handled them twice in straight sets this season to off-set one loss that was a bit expected to them in Doha with Hsieh-Mertens in off the long Aussie layoff. I’d like to see the American duo of Keys-Stearns get a shot at them in round two, albeit I don’t know that it will be anything but another straight sets win. As for Schuurs-Stefani, they’re likely up against Kichenok-Ostapenko in round two. Schuurs-Stefani have been steady at 10-3 this year with titles in Doha plus an Australian Open quarterfinal. Since the Doha win though, they’ve gone 2-2. Kichenok-Ostapenko are 13-4 this year with titles in Brisbane, the final at the Australian Open, and quarterfinals in their last two tournaments. That’d be a hell of a match for a shot at the quarters. I’d favor Kichenok-Ostapenko, who made the quarters here in 2023 to grab the spot opposite of the top seeds. The bottom line however is that nobody looks in the same class as Hsieh-Mertens at the moment, but things can change quickly week to week.

The second quarter features Hunter-Siniakova and Siegemund-Xu. Hunter-Siniakova continue to play very well, but they showed a clear second to Hsieh-Mertens in the Indian Wells final. Still, a 14-3 record and nothing short of the semifinals in all four tournaments played shows just how consistent this team is each week. I don’t know that it’s straight forward that they get through this section with ease. Both Siegemund-Xu and Errani-Paolini may have something to say about what transpires. Watch the Italians as one of those dangerous unseeded teams that could steal a spot in the semifinals. They’ve got good chemistry and I think could even challenge Hunter-Siniakova if they get to the last eight. Siegemund-Xu are the wild cards here as they could have instant chemistry and be great or not quite have enough to get even past round one. They’re a wait and see type team for me this week.

Are you brave enough to pick against Hsieh-Mertens? I wouldn’t etch their name in the finals in stone, but it is hard to go against what they’re doing right now. Hunter-Siniakova would be that team to watch for however with an instant revenge spot in play if they meet in the semifinals. They are 0-2 against Hsieh-Mertens, so maybe they are just a clear cut second to them, but it is hard to beat an opponent two tournaments in a row quite often. I think they’re the ones or Hsieh-Mertens are playing to complete the Sunshine Double.

BOTTOM HALF

The third quarter has solid seeds in Melichar-Martinez/Perez and Haddad Maid-Townsend. MM-Perez are right there with Hsieh-Mertens and Hunter-Siniakova as far as consistency of late. It’s not a clean path though as Dolehide-Krawcyzk may be waiting for them in round two. That’s the same team that bounced them out in round one in Doha earlier this year. I also do think round one could be tricky, so their path is tougher than Haddad Maia-Townsend for me. The six seeds could have a spirited match with Americans Muhammad-Parks to start though with those two having some success in very brief experiences together. And while Aoyama-Krunic have been a serviceable pair, they lost to the six seeds in straights in Adelaide early in the year. If it’s a seed here, it’s Haddad Maia-Townsend for my guess. Dolehide-Krawczyk could be a sleeper type in the bottom half as well as Kudermetova-Potapova, especially if they spring that early upset to energize their drive.

The final quarter has the defending champs, Gauff-Pegula and (2)Dabrowski-Routliffe. It’s anot a perfect collision course for the two seeds, but they still seem a likely quarterfinal. Dabrowski-Routliffe are the ones I question slightly more because of their draw. Their opener may be tough and the second round with either Kato-Sutjiadi or Hozumi-Ninomiya brings a veteran challenge. I would say continue to keep eyes on Linette-Pera as the unseeded threat in this section. They lost 10-6 to Melichar-Martinez/Perez last week in round two at Indian Wells and they did make the semifinals here a year ago. I’m not sure if they’re up to snuff if Gauff-Pegula are at the top of their game, but with just a few matches under their belts, it’s certainly possible they won’t be. Something keeps telling me that this quarter is going to wind up being a bit wacky.

This half is much more wide open to me than the top half which looks mainly like a two team race. Down here, the 2023 champs might not even be the favorites to get through. You’ve got MM-Perez in super form and plenty of tournament tested pairs like Dabrowski-Routliffe, Haddad Maia-Towsend and a sleeper like Linette-Pera who could get through.

THE PIG’S DRAW PROJECTION

Q1 QF: (1)Hsieh-Mertens vs Kichenok-Ostapenko
Q2 QF: (3)Hunter-Siniakova vs Errani-Paolini
Q3 QF: (6)Haddad Maia-Townsend vs Kudermetova-Potapova
Q4 QF: Linette-Pera vs Kato-Sutjiadi

PIG PIX

Hunter-Siniakova
Linette-Pera

Catch me on “X” @tennispig any time to talk doubles and yes, I’ll still give a singles opinion when you ask. Look for PIGPIX posted daily and let’s get people to #WatchMoreDoubles in 2024!