ATP Miami Preview

MIAMI OPEN: NOTABLES & TRENDS

*Santiago Gonzalez and Eduoard Roger-Vasselin were the Miami champions in 2023, beating Austin Krajicek-Nicolas Mahut in the final. Gonzalez-ERV were 1.84 (-119) slight favorites in that one with the final going down in straight sets for the fourth straight time. Krajicek-Mahut were a first time pairing and marked the 9th straight run in Miami that featured an unseeded finalist. There hasn’t been a true underdog winner in the championship match since 2013 when Qureshi-Rojer won was slight dogs 2.09 (+109).

*Gonzalez-ERV were unseeded champions last year, one of four unseeded pairs to make the semifinals. Seven of the last eight semifinal duos in Miami have been unseeded. The last seeded champions at this spot were Mektic-Pavic as two seeds in 2021. The top seeds have not won in Miami since the Bryans back in 2015.

*Eleven of last year’s 31 matches required super tie break finishes. Five of those came in the quarterfinals and semifinals. Four more were in round one. That’s not a surprising number of course given that round one has 16 total matches. The eleven last year were up from nine each in 2021 and 2022.

*Underdogs were not a big part of the story in 2023 with just seven hits out of those 31 completed matches. The largest dog was substantial though at 4.45 (+345) when Tommy Paul and Ben Shelton knocked out (2)Ram-Salisbury in round two. The next biggest score was 2.67 (+167) in the quarters when Lammons-Withrow topped (5)Glasspool-Heliovaara. The dog hits were fairly consistent from 2022 when eight underdogs scored wins in Miami. 2021 was a bigger year for the underdogs with 13 dog scores.

*Seeds have had trouble as mentioned earlier with all the unseeded semifinalists. In 2023, five seeds dropped out in round one with one more joining them in round two. Four seeds also went one and done in Miami in 2022 and 2021 also saw a pair of seeds falling in round one. I’ll focus on the seeds with the toughest early matchups below. With so many seeds falling early the last few years, the first round is a good place to focus for upsets. They have not always yielded big dog scores however, with 2.35 (+135) as the largest in 2023. 2022 did show a bigger dog barking in round one at 3.09 (+209).

*My “singles pairings” have had a good showing in Miami. Last year, Tommy Paul and Ben Shelton made the quarterfinals and Hurkacz-Isner won the titles in 2022. We also saw Kokkinakis-Kyrgios in the semis that year. 2021 also saw an unlikely quarterfinal duo with Sebastian Korda and Michael Mmoh. Also keep an eye out for the odd combinations with one singles player paired up with a regular doubles guy. It didn’t happen last year, but we saw Dan Evans and Neal Skupski in the final in 2021 and Stefanos Tsitsipas made the final in 2019 with Wesley Koolhof. Do we have any of those in 2023? Stay tuned.

SINGLES MINGLE

Miami is nothing like Indian Wells when it comes to drawing singles players into the draw. Perhaps a lot of that is due to players getting back their rhythm in the desert by playing some extra tennis, so they don’t see it as something that will aid them quite as much. Still, with the history of singles pairings in Miami, it’s still worth looking at the few who are choosing to pair up for this tournament. I’m also throwing in any pairs that feature just one singles player that could be worth watching.

Korda-Murray
This pair will draw a lot of attention because .. Andy Murray. Although his doubles results at the tour level have not really been anything much, especially of late, Murray has had plenty of big moments on the doubles court in Davis Cup and Olympic play. He’s played just one doubles match in 2024, a loss alongside Holger Rune in Brisbane to start the season. In fact, he’s played just three doubles matches on tour since the start of 2023. Korda has actually had a decent time of things in half a dozen doubles matches this year with a 4-2 record. He made the quarters in Brisbane with Grigor Dimitrov and the semis in Marseille paired with American Vasil Kirkov.

Paul-Tiafoe
The two top 20 American singles stars team up again with a half dozen doubles matches together. The last came at the 2023 Laver Cup where they beat Arthur Fils and Andrey Rublev. While they have only a 3-3 record, one thing that does stick out is that they’ve been involved in super tie break finishes in ALL six of their matches together. Their best match might have been a super tie break LOSS to Glasspool-Heliovaara in Cincinnati back in 2022. They may not win, but they might put up a good fight if Paul’s ankle isn’t a hindrance from his last match at Indian Wells.

Bublik-Ofner
This is a first time pairing, so there is no telling what, if any chemistry they will have together. If you’ve seen Bublik play doubles, you know that he’s not a natural fit, but always seems to enjoy himself. He does own a pair of doubles win in 2024 and his last two losses paired with Adrian Mannarino saw three tie break sets out of the four regulation sets played. As for Sebastian Ofner, he also has little success this year with a 1-4 mark in doubles play. Only one of those matches was remotely close at the finish. I’m doubtful this pair will amount to much in Miami and coincidentally will be facing Paul-Tiafoe.

Kokkinakis-Tsitsipas
This could be a fun combo to watch or it could crash and burn quickly. We’ve seen Kokkinakis win a Grand Slam title paired with Nick Kyrgios, but he hasn’t found a lot of other success outside of that magical run in 2022. He has played a couple of doubles matches this year, most recently a win alongside Fabio Fognini at the Phoenix Challenger last week. Tsitsipas has hit the doubles court more and more the past few years with many of those paired with his brother. All four of his doubles matches in 2024 were with Petros to the tune of just 1-3 overall. They will never match the electricity of the Special Ks, but this is a unique pairing that could be dangerous if they mesh.

Griekspoor-Cash
Tallon Griekspoor is one of those singles guys that has shown the ability to pair up with about anyone and become a threat. The highlight this year was his team up with Jan-Lennard Struff where that duo won the Dubai titles. He played Indian Wells with Hubert Hurkacz with the pair pushing Dodig-Krajicek to a super tie break before falling 10-7. Julian Cash is the doubles specialist in this pair. He formed a pretty handy team with Robert Galloway for most of his doubles play in 2024 with the pair winning the Delray Beach titles. Since moving away from his former regular partner Henry Patten last year, Cash has shown an ability to mesh with new partners and win. In addition to his success with Galloway, he won a Challenger title with Yuki Bhambri and another with Bart Stevens in 2023. He also paired with Nikola Mektic last Fall and made the Sofia final. This is an intriguing team for me in Miami and an intriguing opener against Korda-Murray.

de Minaur-Hijikata
Color me delighted to see the two Aussies together again. They debuted back on grass at the Surbiton Challenger in 2023. They lost 7-6, 7-5 to Cash-Galloway, but there was a good competitiveness seen. Hijikata has never matched his own magic run with fellow Aussie Jason Kubler at the 2023 Australian Open, but he’s proven reliable enough as a partner with other skilled players. Most recently, he made the Phoenix Challenger final paired with Henry Patten and he also was in the Dallas final indoors earlier in the year with William Blumberg. As for de Minaur, this will be doubles match #1 for 2024. He did go 6-8 last year with a quarterfinal berth in Rome paired with Kubler and a semifinal run on grass in Hertogenbosch with Jordan Thompson. This pair is one to watch for me and we’ll see a fun one I believe to start with them facing off against Kokkinakis-Tsitsipas.

Blumberg-Ruud
These two team up for the 10th time in their careers. They’ve already played in two tournaments this season with a semifinal run at Los Cabos as their best result. It will be a real challenge for them to equal anything like that with (3)Ram-Salisbury as their opener. Still, with Raj and Joe struggling a bit for consistent results, it could be more interesting than you’d think.

SEEDS: ONE AND DONE WATCH (First Match Upset Watch)

(1)Bopanna-Ebden
Boy oh boy, what a terrible draw for this year’s Australian Open champions as. They take on the team that is right behind them in the rankings, the runners-up in Melbourne, Bolelli-Vavassori in round one. Such is life when a team like the Italians comes out of the blue to become one of the most consistent teams to start 2024. All they’ve done is go 13-3 with nothing short of a semifinal in the four tournaments they’ve played. Bopanna-Ebden did beat them 7-6, 7-5 in the Australian Open final, but are only 1-2 in matches since that title. This is an absolute BANGER to start things in Miami.

(3)Ram-Salisbury
While these two have never lost an opener in Miami in four tries, they did not look well in a blowout loss against Glasspool-Rojer (6-4, 6-1) last week at Indian Wells. They are just 3-3 since winning the Adelaide titles to begin the season. It’s Blumberg-Ruud in round one and while that pair doesn’t have a ton of wins/time together, they have proven tough on more than one occasion. They may well survive here, but I’m not going to be surprised if it’s a tough one to start.

(4)Granollers-Zeballos
It’s an opening round battle between two in-form duos with Indian Wells’ runners-up Granollers-Zeballos going against Phoenix champions Doumbia-Reboul. Doumbia-Reboul don’t have too many wins over top tier teams at this level, so that’s their albatross going into this one. Still, they have been close at times and transitioning to a different environment could be a challenge for both teams. That makes this one a bit more of one to watch to me.

(5)Gonzalez-Skupski
They’ve had a solid start as a new pair this year at 11-6. Their last action was in Acapulco, where they lost in the final. They take on two doubles vets in Marcelo Melo and Eduoard Roger-Vasselin, who have never teamed up. That makes them tough to predict. The plus for Gonzalez-Skupski is that they have only lost their opener once this season and that was their first tournament together in Adelaide.

(6)Gonzalez-Molteni
A brutal draw has them up against Lammons-Withrow for the fourth time in their careers. The seeds have won two of those three with the last one coming at the Australian Open. All three have been extremely tight however with five of the seven regulation sets going to tie breaks. Two of the three matches have gone the distance, so this one should be expected to be extremely tight with small margins for the win. Gonzalez-Molteni have lost three of their last four, while Lammons-Withrow had a nice run with a quarterfinal showing at Indian Wells. The Americans have stumbled early a bit this year though with opening losses in three of their last five tournaments, so what will give in this one?

(8)Koolhof-Mektic
Although they’re fast risers in the rankings after winning in Indian Wells (#3), they open against a team that has played them tough twice in 2023. Erler-Miedler pushed them to a super tie break in Auckland and lost 6-3, 7-6 in a rematch in Rotterdam. The Austrians still do their best work on clay, but they continue to get better on hard courts and have proven themselves a tough out plenty of times. While Koolhof-Mektic look the pick to win, they were pushed the distance in both previous matches that came after title wins in 2024. I expect a spirited battle in this one.

DRAW PREVIEW

TOP HALF

This first quarter really gives the top seeds Bopanna-Ebden a difficult path to success. Their opener against Bolelli-Vavassori could well do them in, but even if they survive, round two isn’t looking much easier. The survivor of that blockbuster R1 affair will get either Gille-Vliegen or Acapulco champions Nys-Zielinski. That’s the same Gille-Vliegen who prevailed 10-8 in a super tie break over Bopanna-Ebden at Indian Wells. Nys-Zielinski might relish a chance to get Bolelli-Vavassori against after losing to the Italians in R1 at Indian Wells. Nys-Zielinski won the last time out against Gille-Vliegen in Beijing last Fall after the Belgians had beaten them on clay at the Challenger level in the Spring. Neither pairing has won here with Nys-Zielinski 0-1 and Gille-Vliegen 0-2. Both duos have lost openers in two of their last three tournaments, so this is going to be very interesting.

The bottom half of the quarter SHOULD belong to (8)Koolhof-Mektic. I still fancy them to come through against Erler-Miedler, but they have played a lot of tight sets lately with seven straight involving at least one tie break set. The good news is they have gone 6-1 in those TBs, but those can often swing the other way just as quickly. The winner of that R1 clash gets Paul-Tiafoe or Bublik-Ofner. I talked up Paul-Tiafoe’s competitive streak in doubles, but you would definitely still favor Kollhof-Mektic at the end of the day. Their path on paper at least is very much smoother than anyone in the top section of the quarter.

To the second quarter where (4)Granollers-Zeballos and (6)Gonzalez-Molteni are the seeds. The four seeds come in after a very good showing in Indian Wells, where they made the final against Koolhof-Mektic. Much like Indian Wells, Miami hasn’t always been nice to Granollers-Zeballos with two one and dones in three trips. Last year, they lost to a Santiago Gonzalez-led pair with Roger-Vasselin 7-6, 7-6 in round one. Their starter is against Doumbia-Reboul who can be tough on this surface and they come in hot after winning the Phoenix Challenger. Whoemever survives gets no reprieve in round two with either Arevalo-Pavic or Heliovaara-Peers waiting next. Neither of those two pairs arrives in the greatest form with Heliovaara-Peers at 4-6 this year and Arevalo-Pavic at 7-5, but just 1-4 in their last five. I’d probably give Arevalo-Pavic the edge with Peers and Heliovaara not having played since Acapulco. Peers played Indian Wells with Lorenzo Musetti, while Harri rehabbed his ailing back after suffering an injury in Acapulco.

The bottom half starts with that tremendous (6)Gonzalez-Molteni vs Lammons-Withrow starter in round one. The winner gets Glasspool-Rojer or a one-off pairing of Adrian Mannarino and Fabrice Martin. The French pair have teamed up before with 19 total matches (9-10) in their careers. They should not be overlooked as they made a final in Astana back in 2022 and have normally shown a competitive streak together. The negative is this is their first time together since the Paris Masters in 2022. Glasspool-Rojer come in with three straight quarterfinals, including a nice on last week in Indian Wells that saw them knock out Ram-Salisbury in round two. They scored their first back-to-back wins in that tournament since the Australian Open. I really believe any of these four teams could grab the QF spot in this section. Gonzalez-Molteni made the quarters in Miami a year ago, but all three of their matches required super tie breaks. Three of their last four matches have gone that way as well, but all three have resulted in losses.

Koolhof-Mektic are the form team with a much better early path than the top seeds, Bopanna-Ebden. With the amount of unseeded danger duos in this half, you can easily see one sprouting up as a contender. Bolelli-Vavassori would be the big ones to watch out for, but obviously only if they can upset the top seeds to open. Glasspool-Rojer could be a sneaky deep runner this week.

BOTTOM HALF

The third quarter is led by (3)Ram-Salisbury with a more consistent (7)Krawietz-Puetz in as well. Ram-Salisbury have lost to a “singles pairing” in three of their four Miami trips. That makes round two one to watch if they make it past Blumberg-Ruud. Round two could see that singles pairing of Kokkinakis-Tsitsipas as a brick wall in their path. That match with de Minaur-Hijikata to start is one of the ones I’m most eager to watch. The top half may look tailor-made for Krawietz-Puetz, but the singles pairs could once more wreak havoc. I don’t expect the seeded Germans to falter against Cerundolo-Etcheverry. They’ve paired up a few times, but generally don’t win, especially not against experienced duos. It’s round two that will be the place to look for potential trouble. It’s Cash-Griekspoor or Korda-Murray. I venture that either one can be a tough out for the seeds. Krawietz-Puetz continue to grow in confidence on hard courts with an 8-3 mark so far this year. Their three hard court tournaments have yielded a Brisbane final, an Australian Open quarterfinal and a trip to the semifinals in Indian Wells. They’re not “sexy” but these guys just get the job done more often than not. If Ram-Salisbury continue to stumble, they could well push through this quarter into a semifinal.

The final quarter is home to (2)Dodig-Krajicek and (5)Gonzalez-Skupski. I’m not overly confidence in either tandem with this draw. Gonzalez-Skupski may be the better bet with Dodig-Krajicek having a possible tough opener against Bhambri-Haase and then most certainly a tough round two. That’s where Behar-Pavlasek or Purcell-Thompson will wait. Two experienced teams that are on my crush list for sure because they are under-sung solid performers. Behar-Pavlasek have somewhat quietly made three semifinals this year and an Australian Open quarterfinal to boot. They stand 15th in the rankings with their Aussie opponents at 16. Purcell-Thompson are 12-2 this year with two titles. The only thing missing on their resume for me this year is a big win over a top tier pair. With a win they could get that perhaps against Dodig-Krajicek. This matchup is one of the best in round one that nobody will probably talk about, but I expect the survivor to have a very real shot to come out of this quarter. Gonzalez-Skupski have an “easier” possible road to a deep run with Melo-ERV pairing up against them for the first time. Haase-Mies could be interesting if they have any chemistry in their first tournament together. Eubanks-Shelton have been mostly disappointing in doubles, so it’s hard to get excited about them until that changes.

Behar-Pavlasek are my unseeded team to watch. They will do well to get past the Aussies first, but it could be a catalyst to a big run if they do. Vice versa, the Aussies could use a win as fuel as well. If seeds get through this bottom half, you have to look at Gonzalez-Skupski or Krawietz-Puetz as favorites. Their paths are better than the two higher seeds who might be fortunate to avoid defeat in round one. I think there are several strong unseeded possiblities in this half and I would be a bit surprised if this half doesn’t breed an unseeded finalist.

THE PIG’S DRAW PROJECTION

Q1 QF: Bolelli-Vavassori v (8)Koolhof-Mektic
Q2 QF: Arevalo-Pavic v Glasspool-Rojer
Q3 QF: (7)Krawietz-Puetz v de Minaur-Hijikata
Q4 QF: (5)Gonzalez-Skupski v Behar-Pavlasek

PIG PIX

Behar-Pavlasek
Glasspool-Rojer

Catch me on “X” @tennispig any time to talk doubles! Look for PIGPIX posted daily and let’s get people to #WatchMoreDoubles in 2024!

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