BNP PARIBAS OPEN NOTABLES & TRENDS
*There is no chance of a repeat champion as this was another tournament won in 2023 by the Czech power duo Krejcikova-Siniakova. They were the first top seeds to take the titles since Hingis-Mirza back in 2015. The Czechs needed a super tie break (10-7) to win as huge 1.19 (-524) favorites. That was also the first super tie break needed in the finale at Indian Wells since 2016. Even with some unseeded pairs involved in finals, seven of the last nine title matches at Indian Wells have gone to the favorites.
*Unseeded pairs made up three of the four semifinalist spots in 2023. That continued a trend with each of the last three runs here seeing multiple unseeded semifinalists. You can just about bank on an unseeded duo making the final with one of the finals’ spots going to a non-seed every year since 2016.
*Only two seeds dropped out in round one last year with both yielding underdog wins for the opponent. That was the same number of seeds that lost the year before in 2022 and only one went one and done in 2021. So where do the seeds fall victim to losing more so? It hasn’t been quite a “trend” I guess with 2022 not following, but in 2023 and 2021, four seeds were ousted in the second round. If you’re looking to go against a seed, it seems like the early rounds have been a better spot to look in the past few runs at this stop.
*There were eight underdog wins last year in the women’s draw with the largest scalp coming at 3.70 (+270) in round two when (2)Gauff-Pegula were taken out by Kato-Sutjiadi. That was one of three hits at 3.00 (+200) or better in 2023. 2022 had ten underdog hits with a monster 4.25 (+325) leading the charge in the opening round when the top seeds Kudermetova-Mertens lost. 2021 also had two massive wins for underdogs. The largest scalp came when (1)Krejcikova-Siniakova fell in the quarterfinals to Kichenok-Ostapenko with the dogs at 5.72 (+472). The second largest was 4.26 (+326) in the second round when (8)Fichman-Olmost were taken out. Keep an eye on those high seeds in the early rounds, that’s where some of the bigger underdog surprises have come in the last three years.
*Nine of the 30 completed matches in 2023 needed a super tie break to settle. The majority of those (5) came in round two. That was way down from a massive 17 matches that saw super tie breaks in 2022. There were 12 STB finishes in 2021. Sixteen of those combined 29 super tie breaks in 2021 and 2022 came in round one.
SINGLES MINGLE
The WTA draw isn’t anything like the ATP one where we see a lot of men’s singles players involved in doubles. For whatever reason, there have not been many lately in the women’s draw. Here is a look at the few that stick out in 2024.
Gauff-Pegula
Even though they were really a regular pairing in 2023 with 47 matches, you have to keep them under the “singles” list because well, both are major singles players. This will be their first team-up of 2024. They split their Indian Wells’ debut matches last year, losing in round two in a super tie break. They have a tough draw to start with Sofia Kenin and Bethanie Mattek-Sands.
Paolini-Samsonova
A pair of Top 20 singles players are pairing up for only the second time after losing their debut in Adelaide in January. Both have played a sporadic doubles schedule in the last year with Paolini having played more so far in 2024 with a 6-3 record. That included a title run with Errani in Linz. Samsonova is 0-2 in doubles play in 2024. She did have two big runs in 2023 with Kudermetova that included a title run in Dubai and a quarterfinal run at the French Open. They’re talented and could prove tough.
Kalinskaya-Kudermetova
Speaking of Kudermetova, she chose her fellow Russian in this spot as a first pairing since their lone match back in 2018. Kudermetova is by far the more accomplished doubles player with seven career doubles titles and a trip to the Wimbledon final back in 2021. Kalinskaya does have a trio of doubles titles to her credit, so she’s no slouch. The question is whether or not this combo will have the chemistry to spring some early wins.
Andreeva-Potapova
Another pairing of Russians perhaps again with Olympic aspirations. Certainly Andreeva at 16 is the one that this pairing will revolve around perhaps as far as success or failure. Being so youthful, she has just a handful of pro doubles matches to her credit, including a 1-2 record in 2024. Potapova is 3-3 in doubles play this season. She’s had some past success with with three titles and an Australian Open quarterfinal in 2022. As with the previous Russian duo, chemistry is the question.
SEEDS: ONE AND DONE WATCH (First Match Upset Watch)
(1)Hseih-Mertens
The Australian Open champs have not won in their two matches post-Australian Open. They did pair up here in 2021 to win the title, so certainl they are a danger if they can get back in the win column. Their opener is a potential landmine though against one of the singles combos in Paolini-Samsonova.
(5)Gauff-Pegula
Even though the Americans have undeniable chemistry as 2023 showed, not playing a doubles match together yet in 2024 isn’t an ideal set up heading to this tournament. Kenin and Mattek-Sands are the opposition to start with that American pair having won the Abu Dhabi titles earlier this season on hard courts. In fact. they’re 13-3 together on the surface in their careers together spanning back to 2019. They should prove to be a very stern test to start for the #5 seeds.
(8)Kichenok-Ostapenko
The current #1 ranked duo is on the list this week simply because the pair opposite of them COULD be one that wreaks some havoc this week. It’s Errani and Siegemund teaming up for the first time. Both are experienced and accomplished doubles players who have had success with multiple partners. We don’t know if they will mesh or not, but the quality both possess in doubles means there is a chance. Kichenok-Ostapenko lost to a Siegemund-included duo with Haddad-Maia last year in round two at Indian Wells and also dropped their opener here in 2022. I’m expecting a tight battle.
DRAW PREVIEW
TOP HALF
The first quarter features Hseih-Mertens and Schuurs-Stefani as the seeds. I already spoke on Hseih-Mertens potential to be sent packing early if Paolini-Samsonova gel quickly. The survivor of that match will be favored for the quarterfinals no matter who wins opposite of them. Kato-Sutjiadi have the experience edge, but have been a .500 team this year at 6-6. They also sport four opening match losses in seven tournaments. In the bottom, it’s Schuurs-Stefani who will be looking to get back on track after losing their opener in Dubai. That came on the heels of a solid title run in Doha. It would be intriguing to get another Hseih-Mertens vs Schuurs-Stefani clash as they’ve split two fairly lopsided battles already in 2024 with Hseih-Mertens winning 6-4, 6-2 in Australia and Schuurs-Stefani rolling 6-1, 6-3 in Doha. I’m not sure we get that however with that Kalinskaya-Kudermetova pairing lurking perhaps in round two against the six seeds as a dark horse type duo and Eiker-Guo are capable in their own right. This quarter could be chalky or go totally off course and I would not be surprised with either result. I’d probably give Schuurs-Stefani the nod here with better consistency since Australia with Paolini-Samsonova as an unseeded team to watch along with the Russian Ks.
The second quarter might be a bit more top heavy with the seeds (4)Melichar-Martinez/Perez and (8)Kichenok-Ostapenko. Let’s start with the four seeds who busted a lengthy finals losing streak in winning the titles in San Diego last week. They’re the form team right now with backo-to-back finals in Dubai and San Diego. Beating Hunter-Siniakova last week after losing to them in Dubai was the confidence building they may have needed. They made round two in their IW debut last season, but have a set up here to perhaps push to at least a quarterfinal – although nothing is as simple as it seems. I think the big one for Kichenok-Ostapenko could be their opener with Errani-Siegemund. If they get past what could be a tricky starter, then they could well be on a collision course to face MM-Perez. Kichenok-Ostapenko did make the semis in the desert back in 2021, but have failed to get as far as the quarterfinals in the last two years. They’ve been consistent outside of an opening loss in Doha that was probably a bit of rust after not playing for a few weeks. Linette-Pera are an unseeded pair to watch in this section. They are 4-1 on hard courts this year and beat MM-Perez last year at the US Open, not to mention taking Kichenok-Ostapenko to a super tie break in a loss at Montreal. They’re dangerous.
BOTTOM HALF
The third quarter houses what looked like the hottest team on tour, until they lost last week in San Diego. (3)Hunter-Siniakova had won ten of their first eleven in 2024 before losing to Melichar-Martinez/Perez in a super tie break in the San Diego semifinals. They’re still a big threat with a remarkable 17-3 record so far in action together. The third seeds look like they have a nice path to a quarterfinal in this section. Bouzkova-Sorribes Tormo might be a challenge if they can get past the Russian combo in round one. The other seed in this quarter is (7)Haddad Maia-Townsend. This was an exciting looking pairing when they started off the season together with a title run in Adelaide. They fell short of a big run in Melbourne, losing in round three. Could Garcia-Xu be a threat in this quarter? The first time pair both have extensive experience in doubles. If the chemistry is there, they might be an outsider that could make some noise. I’m hoping for the seeded showdown in this quarter, but my questions are mainly with the seven seeds. I would be more surprised if Hunter-Siniakova didn’t have a say in who makes the semifinals. Garcia-Xu are the unseeded team that intrigues me most, although they could flame out in round one just as easily as making any sort of run.
The final quarter looks like it should produce some real bangers. (2)Dabrowski-Routliffe have alternated great with early exits so far this year. They made the semifinals both at the Australian Open and in Dubai. In between, it was first round exits in Adelaide and Doha. Bucsa-Panova are capable enough, but already lost to this team early on. I think the bigger issue might be round two against a team like Chan-Olmos that runs hot and cold. They won a title in Hobart early in January, but have not won consecutive matches in all other tournaments played in 2024. Or maybe it’s Muhammad-Shibahara, who were surprise finalists here in 2022 when they went 14-8 together, 8-4 on hard courts. On the other side, Gauff-Pegula could be one and done with Kenin-Mattek Sands posing a sizeable challenge to start. If they survive, the 5th seeded Americans could well get on a roll. Dolehide-Krawczyk might be waiting in round two, but they’ve struggled against top tier teams already this year and Gauff-Pegula certainly qualify. Even with two great seeds here, it would be an upset to me if an unseeded duo DID NOT make the quarterfinals. Kenin-Mattek Sands, Muhammad-Shibahara or Chan-Olmos all have the ability to be that surprise. I won’t rule out Gauff-Pegula, but it’s all on that round one match to serve as a catalyst and not a tournament ender.
THE PIG’S DRAW PROJECTION
Q1 QF: Kato-Sutjiadi vs (6)Schuurs-Stefani
Q2 QF: Linette-Pera vs (8)Kichenok-Ostapenko
Q3 QF: (7)Haddad-Maia/Townsend vs (3)Hunter-Siniakova
Q4 QF: Kenin/Mattek-Sands vs Errani-Siegemund
PIG PIX
Hunter-Siniakova
Schuurs-Stefani
Catch me on “X” @tennispig any time to talk doubles and yes, I’ll still give a singles opinion when you ask. Look for PIGPIX posted daily and let’s get people to #WatchMoreDoubles in 2024!
DOUBLES TOURNAMENT PREVIEWS & PICKS 