RIO OPEN: NOTABLES & TRENDS
*Gonzalez-Molteni won the titles in Rio in 2023. That marked the fourth time in the last five runs at the Rio Open that an unseeded pair have won the tournament. Unseeded teams have accounted for at least half of the semifinal spots in Rio in all but one year of the tournament since it started in 2014.
*Gonzalez-Molteni were 2.13 (+113) underdogs in the final when they beat (2)Cabal-Melo. Last year’s final ended a run of five straight super tie break finishes in the final as the Argentines won in straight sets 6-1, 7-6(3).
*Underdogs won just three of the 15 total matches in 2023. The other two dog scores outside of the final came in round one when two of the four seeds were upset. The biggest score came at 3.33 (+233) when the top seeds Matos-Vega Hernandez lost and Doumbia-Reboul hit at 2.75 (+175) when they downed Bolelli-Fognini. At least one seed has lost their opener each of the last five runs in Rio with multiple seeds going down in 2022 and 2023. That makes round one a nice spot to focus on if you’re looking for an underdog score. Pay attention to the seeded matchups.
*Six of the 15 matches last year in Rio required a super tie break finish. That was up from just four super tie breaks in 2022. 2020 saw plenty of STB finishes with eight. The key for these seem to be looking at the round one matches where five of last year’s six super tie breaks were found. The last five runs have seen at least four of the eight round one matches go to a super tie break four times.
SINGLES MINGLE
It’s another 16 team draw this week and that means the number of singles players in the draw will be small this week. Here’s a look at the few singles players taking part in Rio.
Romboli-Seyboth Wild
Thiago Seyboth-Wild is just inside the Top 100 in singles and will pull double duty this week in Rio. This pair has played together in 2021, where they made a clay semifinal at the Challenger level. Both Brazilians have played doubles sparingly in 2024 with a combined 2-7 record. This doesn’t look like a team to expect a ton from as they go against the defending champions in round one.
Ofner-Zapata Miralles
A one-off for the week with both guys also in the singles draw. Both have just a handful of doubles matches to their credit this year and Zapata Miralles in particular has had a lot of trouble finding the win column. He is 2-24 in doubles play since the start of 2022. Going up against a veteran pair in Austrians Erler-Miedler in round one doesn’t look like a recipe for success.
Carballes Baena-Lajovic
This is another first time pairing, but there’s a bit more experience at play with these two. Still, success in doubles has been fleeting for both. Carballes Baena did score a win alongside Jaume Munar in Buenos Aires for his lone doubles win of the season and clay has been home to 72 of his 85 career doubles win. As for Lajovic, he’s only played a dozen doubles matches since 2022 with just two wins.
SEEDS: ONE AND DONE WATCH (First Match Upset Watch)
(1)Ram-Salisbury
I only put the top seeds down because this will be their first action since losing in the round of 16 in Melbourne. They square off against an in-form team in Cash-Galloway, who are playing in the Delray Beach final which is now scheduled for Monday. That makes a quick flip for them even harder, if they even remain in the Rio draw. Their Delray Beach run helped them break a four match losing skid in 2024 that had seen them lose three straight openers prior to last week. They also have never paired up on clay together, so the surface switch will probably be tough on them. That could limit the upset potential, but with Ram-Salisbury not having played in a while, it’s worth seeing if they’re rusty or not.
(2)Granollers-Zeballos
It’s a repeat of Sunday’s Buenos Aires final that saw Bolelli-Vavassori score the upset win to nab their first title together. The Italians have quietly been an outstanding duo so far at 9-1 in 2024. The win over Granollers-Zeballos signaled they’re for real to me as easily the best team they’ve beaten so far. Now it is hard to beat the same team in successive weeks, so that’s something to watch in this one, but it seems likely that this will be a tight affair in round one and the seeds could be in trouble.
DRAW PREVIEW
TOP HALF
The first quarter has a couple of quality opponents for the top seeds Ram-Salisbury. Cash-Galloway may not be the ones to stop them in round one, but there is a team that could be lurking in the quarterfinals that can. That is Doumbia-Reboul who have gotten hot in February with a title indoors in Montpellier and a runner-up finish on clay in Cordoba. Clay has been the best surface for these two over the years and they had an impressive semifinal run here a year ago. Their opener may not be easy with a pair of Brazilians in Demoliner and Meligeni Rodrigues Alves. They teamed up here in 2023, but lost their opener in a super tie break. They’ve paired up six times with their best result coming in a Davis Cup win over Duckworth-Peers back in 2020. I’m really intrigued by Ram and Salisbury choosing to play clay at this point, when they usually either stick to hard courts or pass on play until the Sunshine Double in Indian Wells and Miami.
The second quarter gives (3)Gonzalez-Molteni a pretty decent set up to making the final four in Rio. Erler-Miedler are easily the prime trouble makers in this section for the seeds. The Austrians narrowly lost (10-7) to finalists Cabal-Melo in Rio last year. They sport some of their best results on clay with a pair of ATP titles on the surface in 2023 along with another final. The Austrians also scored two wins over Gonzalez-Molteni on two different surfaces last year. They’re a threat and Gonzalez-Molteni are fighting against history in pursuit of a repeat championship at this stop. It’s never been done in the history of the tournament. This looks like a two team race to me, so it’s Gonzalez-Molteni or Erler-Miedler for me.
BOTTOM HALF
The third quarter is going to be the highlight of this tournament for me. There are bangers around just about every corner in this section. The seeds, Krawietz-Puetz, do have the best early set up as they wait for a qualifier in round one. The match opposite of theirs is banger number one with Melo-Middelkoop battling Barrientos-Matos. Both were solid in Buenos Aires last week in making the semifinals. Melo-Middelkoop have struggled a bit to avoid early losses with opening match losses in two of their last three tournaments. Barrientos-Matos have avoided opening losses in all five tournaments played in 2024, including a big win over Gonzalez-Molteni in round one last week. The survivor of this match will definitely be a test for Krawietz-Puetz. The Germans dropped a tough opener in Rotterdam last week to finalists Haase-van de Zandschulp, but showed some good prowess on clay last year at 14-4 on the surface with a title in Hamburg and a final in Munich. They also made the semifinals at the Monte-Carlo Masters and grabbed a quarterfinal berth at the French Open.
The fourth quarter provides a quick repeat of the Buenos Aires final with (2)Granollers-Zeballos again battling Bolelli-Vavassori. The Italians scored the championship win in straights over Granollers-Zeballos on Sunday. They’ve quietly amassed a 9-1 record in 2024, if you can do such a thing. This is a tandem that made the Australian Open final and now has a title to their credit. They are a team that needs to be on your radar. I hate that they’re playing again this soon because it obviously makes the matchup more difficult for both sides. As I keep beating into the universe, it is hard to beat a team two weeks straight. Yet, how do you go against a red hot team like Bolelli-Vavassori? The other matchup in this quarter is Cabral-Patten against Carballes Baena-Lajovic. While you like to give the regular pair, Cabral-Patten, the edge – they have struggled for wins at 2-5 this year. They have lost three openers out of five tournaments played, but they have been playing some solid teams. I still favor them, but this could be a tricky one for them. Obviously, the winner between Granollers-Zeballos and Bolelli-Vavassori is a heavy favorite to get to the semifinals.
THE PIG’S DRAW PROJECTION
Q1 QF: (1)Ram-Salisbury v Doumbia-Reboul
Q2 QF: (3)Gonzalez-Molteni v Erler-Miedler
Q3 QF: Barrientos-Matos v (4)Krawietz-Puetz
Q4 QF: Carballes Baena-Lajovic v Bolelli-Vavassori
PIG PIX
Krawietz-Puetz
Erler-Miedler
Catch me on “X” @tennispig any time to talk doubles! Look for PIGPIX posted daily and let’s get people to #WatchMoreDoubles in 2024!
LAST WEEK’S PIGPIX
DOUBLES TOURNAMENT PREVIEWS & PICKS 