ATP Rotterdam Preview

ABN AMRO OPEN: NOTABLES & TRENDS

*Dodig-Krajicek are your defending champions in Rotterdam after they downed Bopanna-Ebden in last year’s final 7-6, 2-6, 12-10. They were 1.74 (-135) favorites in that match. They’ll need to overcome what has been a jinx on the top seeds at this stop, if they hope to repeat. The top seeds in Rotterdam have not won the championship since 2010 when Daniel Nestor and Nenad Zimonjic did the trick. Interestingly, Nestor-Zimonjic were also the last repeat champs in 2009 and 2010.

*The 2023 final marked the third time in four years that a super tie break was necessary to determine the champion. Last year’s run of 15 matches saw six matches overall that finished with the STB. Of those half dozen, four came in round one. Four of the last five years in Rotterdam have seen at least four of the eight opening round matches go the distance. That looks like a nice place to focus on that sort of thing.

*Overall, underdogs feasted in 2023 with eight of the 15 matches going to the dogs. Five of those hits came in round one. The largest was 4.33 (+333) when Bublik-Wawrinka took out (2)Mektic-Pavic. 2022 saw six dog wins with a high of 4.05 (+305) coming in round one again via Mektic-Pavic losing again. 2021 was the last time that underdogs didn’t find much success with only two of 15 matches falling to the dogs. The prices may not reach even the 3.00 mark for the biggest score early, but the depth of this small field should give the dogs plenty of opportunity to bark with round one again looking like a round to focus on.

*Unseeded pairs have seen plenty of success in Rotterdam recently. Last year, three of the four semifinalists were unseeded. In all, 14 of the last 20 semifinal spots have gone to unseeded teams from 2019-2023. 2022 was the last time that at least three seeds made the semis. And running back to the top seed jinx, 2017 was the last time the top seed duo in Rotterdam made it as far as the semifinals. The last FIVE runs in Rotterdam have seen the top seeds go one and done. More on that below.

SINGLES MINGLE

You’ve got a small draw with only 16 teams and this being a 500-level stop, there are very few singles players who slithered into this week’s field. In fact, there is only one duo this week made up of two players more known for singles:

Bublik-Musetti
These two did play once before in doubles and it was indoors back in 2022. They scored an opening round win in Metz before withdrawing. Neither Bublik or Musetti has had a lot of success on the doubles scene with Bublik going 6-14 last year in doubles play and Musetti at 4-6. Bublik did play in Montpellier a couple weeks back with Shevchenko, scoring a rare win before another withdrawal. It is worth noting that Bublik has paired up with two different partners the last two years in Rotterdam to score first round wins.

Haase-van de Zandschulp
Van de Zandschulp is one of the other singles guys in the doubles field this week. He’s an interesting team up with veteran Robin Haase. The Dutch wild cards have played a dozen doubles matches over the past few years, tallying eight wins. Last year they were surprise finalists on clay in Rome and also made the semifinals indoors in Astana. They look a bit of danger playing at home and make for a tricky opener for (2)Krawietz-Puetz in round one.

Griekspoor-Stevens
Another Dutch tandem featuring a singles player in Tallon Griekspoor. They’ve got experience together with 18 career matches at 9-9. Last year, they were surprise Wimbledon quarterfinalists, so they certainly are no slouches. They are up against 2023 Rotterdam semifinalists Gille-Vliegen in round one, which should be a quality showdown.

SEEDS: ONE AND DONE WATCH (First Match Upset Watch)

(1)Dodig-Krajicek
There is plenty working against the top seeds in this spot. They have not played since their round two upset loss at the Australian Open. That’s about three weeks ago. That said, they did come here with a similar sluggish start to their 2023 season and were able to fight off an early upset bid to work through for the titles. They catch Heliovaara-Peers first-up and that might afford them an opportunity to do something similar with that new 2024 pairing not quite hitting on all cylinders. Heliovaara-Peers played Marseille last week, splitting two matches. They’re just 2-3 so far in 2024, but will present a tough task I believe in round one; maybe not the upset, but I would be surprised if they did not at least grab a set off the top seeds.

(2)Krawietz-Puetz
The Germans are off to a fine start in 2024 at 6-2 with a quarterfinal run in Melbourne to follow up a finals run in Brisbane. They were 6-5 indoors in 2023 with three semifinals to offset a pair of one and dones on the surface. They did play Rotterdam with a semifinal berth earned there before losing to a double Dutch team of Haase-Middelkoop. They draw Haase-van de Zandschulp first this year with the scent of a potential upset certainly lingering in the air.

(3)Lammons-Withrow
The Americans have been okay early on with a 4-4 record, but stumbled in their first indoor match last week in Dallas with a loss to Prasanth-Chandrasekar. They continued to attract tie break sets with that match marking the fifth out of eight to see at least one tie break set in one of their matches. They draw a first time pair-up of Albano Olivetti and Michael Venus. Olivetti has quietly become of the better big serving doubles threats on tour with a penchant for good results indoors as seen with his first time pairing with Tristan-Samuel Weissborn in Montpellier that led to a finals appearance. Last year, Olivetti went 22-11 between Challengers and ATP play with one title and three other finals appearances. There is no telling how Venus and Olivetti will gel in their first match together, but given that Lammons-Withrow often play those very tight sets, you have to think they’ll be in that match. Venus is 0-4 so far in 2024 though with three different partners, so there’s that too.

DRAW PREVIEW

TOP HALF

Even though the first quarter has the only qualifiers in the field, there’s no pushovers in this section for me. (1)Dodig-Krajicek are the lead seeds, but will be tested against Heliovaara-Peers in round one. While I have them on upset watch, I do think the top seeds get through to the quarterfinals. Heliovaara-Peers could well wind up as a more formidable team as the season goes on, but right now they don’t seem to be clicking on all cylinders yet. The match opposite of this features qualifiers Mies-Smith against another new 2024 pair in Glasspool-Rojer. Glasspool-Rojer hit if off immediately with a title to start the year in Brisbane, but have tapered off a little with a 3-2 record after that win. There is some room for that chemistry to be missing with both players having played after the Australian Open with different partners. As such, Mies-Smith should be looked at as a threat. They’ve already paired for a dozen matches this year at 7-5. Getting two wins in qualis gives them the form advantage, although they had gone just 1-2 indoors in two prior tournaments. I think the biggest thing to watch here is to see if Dodig-Krajicek really get their season started. Remember, they have only played three matches in 2024. I do think there’s a shot for any of these four teams to push into the semifinals.

The second quarter looks equally open to a free-for-all for a berth in the final four. Mahut-Roger Vasselin serve as the seeds, but the French are just 2-2 on the year. One of those wins came in Davis Cup play, but it was a battle against a duo you would not have expected to push the vets to a third set tie break. Erler-Miedler might have a shot to upset them, but I left it off the list due to questions regarding their health. The Austrians retired in the first set of their semifinal in Marseille just a few days ago. If they are good to go in Rotterdam, then that R1 clash is a toss up to me. The other match in this quadrant should be a cracker with Koolhof-Mektic against Behar-Pavlesek. Koolhof-Mektic look like a threat again in their return partnership for the first time since 2020. They are 6-1 this season with that lone loss a tight one to Australian Open champions Bopanna-Ebden. Five of their seven matches have gone the distance. As for Behar-Pavlesek, a solid 5-3 start with a semifinal showing in Adelaide and a Slam quarterfinal in Melbourne. I don’t know who I’d favor in that one, but it seems like one that might be tailor-made for a super tie break finish. For me, I would favor the survivor of that one to be the favorite to get through to the semis regardless of whether or not Mahut-ERV are opposite of that spot.

BOTTOM HALF

The third quarter might have lesser known partnerships outside of (3)Lammons-Withrow, but they all look dangerous. Lammons-Withrow have that starter against Olivetti-Venus to be concerned with in round one. The Americans were very good indoors in 2023 at 11-4 with three finals and one title (Astana). They could use a good run this week to get them feeling like they are truly on track this season. If they escape round one, they have that shot to go farther. The match on the other side features regulars Gille-Vliegen and another dangerous Dutch duo in Griekspoor-Stevens. Gille-Vliegen play here for the fourth year in a row with last year’s semifinal run from qualifying as their best showing. They come in hot off a Davis Cup victory over Dodig-Pavic. I’d expect a typical tight doubles match in this one. The Belgians have had one big run indoors each of the last four years, so you cannot count them out. Lammons-Withrow would LOVE to see the Belgians get through as they’ve beaten them five out of five meetings.

The final quarter has (2)Krawietz-Puetz and more capable unseeded teams. That first match against Haase-van de Zandschulp looks tough. I’m thinking upset in that one. The other match pits Arevalo-Pavic against the singles pairing of Bublik-Musetti. The question for Arevalo-Pavic is how quickly they can recapture that early season chemistry after the period since the Aussie Open saw them paired up with other players. They certainly looked to have “it” as new partners by winning the Hong Kong title to begin the year. Since then, they’ve fallen off a bit with a 2-2 mark that included a one and done in Auckland. I tend to think their skill set is generally better than Bublik and Musetti nine times out of ten, so the singles guys will need big serving days I think if they push for an upset. I think Haase-BVDZ can be threatening to that semifinal spot, but I’m big on Arevalo-Pavic’s chances most weeks if they can find their rhythm early.

When I first looked at the draw in Rotterdam, the thing that stuck out to me is how many teams look like they could win this week. With some of the rust that some of the seeds could have or the lack of cohesion coming off time with different partners, there seem to be chances for a lot of tight matches and “unexpected” outcomes by most.

THE PIG’S DRAW PROJECTION

Q1 QF: (1)Dodig-Krajicek v Mies-Smith
Q2 QF: (4)Mahut-ERV v Koolhof-Mektic
Q3 QF: Gille-Vliegen v Olivetti-Venus
Q4 QF: Arevalo-Pavic v Haase-BVDZ

PIG PIX

Arevalo-Pavic
Koolhof-Mektic

Catch me on “X” @tennispig any time to talk doubles and yes, I’ll still give a singles opinion when you ask. Look for PIGPIX posted daily and let’s get people to #WatchMoreDoubles in 2024!

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