WTA Australian Open Preview

AUSTRALIAN OPEN NOTABLES & TRENDS

*There is no chance of a three-peat this year as Krejcikova-Siniakova split at the end of 2023. The Czech super duo had won the last two championships in Melbourne. Their win in 2023 was the fourth straight year that a top two seed has won the women’s doubles titles. As you’d expect with that, there has not been an underdog champion in Melbourne since Stosur-Zhang at 2.61 (+161) in 2019. The championship match hasn’t been terribly dramatic either with just one out of the last six needing a third set.

*Unlike the men, the women have routinely seen the power duos in the upper echelon involved in the business end of the Australian Open. As you see in the grid below, 12 of the last 20 semifinalists have been top four seeds. Seven of the last ten finalists have been either a one or two seed. Interestingly too, a top five seed has been beaten in round one in four of the last five runs.

*Even with the success of the top seeds in recent times, an unseeded pairing has found their way into the Aussie semifinals in four of the last five years. The last two unseeded pairs in the final were Danilina-Haddad Maia in 2022 and Stosur-Zhang in 2019, when they won the titles. 2019 was the last time there were multiple unseeded semifinalists with three of the four duos in the mix that year being unseeded.

*Underdogs did not hit at a big clip in 2023 with only 14 of the 63 matches seeing dogs bite for the win. What they may have lacked in overall wins, they made up for with big scalps. Of the 14 dog wins, six were scored at 2.80 (+180) or better with a high of 4.19 when Mihalikova-Sasnovich shocked (12)Towsend-Muhammad in round two. That followed suit from 2022 when there were only 13 underdog hits, but six at 3.00 (+200) or higher. If you’re looking to swing big, look at ROUND TWO where there have been multiple hits each of the last three runs at 3.00 (+200) or better.

*There have been at least 20 three set matches at the Australian Open in the women’s doubles draw each of the last three runs. The high mark in that stretch was 28 in 2021. Only one of the final seven matches (QF-SF-F) in 2023 needed three sets. That made it three of the last five years in Melbourne that occurred. 2021 and 2022 did see a trio of three setters at the business end, but there’s been a little more “miss” than “hit” in matches going the distance in the latter stages of the WTA doubles draw.

SINGLES MINGLE

The WTA draw doesn’t feature a ton of straight up “singles combinations,” but there are plenty of ladies more known for singles in the draw. A lot of them however are paired off with more of a doubles specialist type, so there are only a couple of singles combos I will focus on below.

Gauff-Pegula
Of course any time you talk women’s doubles, you start with two top singles stars who have become one of the top doubles pairings. Coco Gauff and Jessica Pegula had a dynamic 2023 with a 35-12 record. The Americans made two Slam semifinals in Melbourne and Paris along with a quarterfinal in New York. That showed their 2022 French Open final was no fluke as they certainly figure to be in the mix down the stretch at the Aussie Open. You also have to love that they have shown no desire to withdraw from doubles amid any deep singles runs. These young ladies are in it to win it in the doubles draw.

Kudermetova-Pavlyuchenkova
This is another pair to keep eyes on. The Russians are short on doubles time together, but they did win the titles in Rome in 2022 in what was just their second tournament together. Any time you find instant success, there’s some obvious chemistry that makes them dangerous.

Cirstea-Vekic
Two top 30 singles players teaming up is something to watch. They did pair up way back in 2017 for a loss at the French Open, so this isn’t totally foreign. Still, both Cirstea and Vekic both only play a handful of doubles matches per season and with very limited success. They certainly don’t match up with either of the previous two tandems I mentioned, but do stick out because of where they sit in the singles rankings.

SEEDS: ONE AND DONE WATCH (First Match Upset Watch)

(6)Krawcyzk-Shibahara
This new duo is still figuring things out with a split of their 2024 openers in Hobart. Their opponents in round one both bring plenty of doubles experience to the table in Khromacheva-Kolodziejova. That duo played their first two matches together in Hobart as well with a win and a loss, both in super tie breaks. The loss was to Chan-Almos. Khromacheva had a blistering 2023 on the doubles circuit with 43 wins across all competitions, that included three WTA titles and two more on the ITF level. She’s an excellent doubles player and this team looks the part of one that could get a surprise scalp of a higher seed that maybe hasn’t yet figured out exactly how their styles mesh.

(7)Melichar-Martinez/Perez
While this duo is plenty experienced at Grand Slams, they did struggle to maintain the success they found at them in their first season together in 2022. Last year, we saw them go one and done at two of the four Slams and they lost in round two at the Australian Open. A year after going 19-6 on hard courts, they stumbled to a 22-19 mark on the surface in 2023. They need to find their confidence early, but face a duo that could cause some trouble.

(11)Kichenok-Ostapenko
The 11th seeds are in-form after winning in Brisbane, but they’re going up against a team in Linnette-Pera who played them pretty tough in a 6-4, 6-4 defeat in that tournament. They did also beat Linette-Pera in a super tie break in Montreal last year. Maybe they’ve flipped a switch, but last year Kichenok-Ostapenko struggled mightily at Slams, failing to make it past round two in all four. They lost their openers both at the Aussie Open and Wimbledon. Linette-Pera play a lighter schedule, but showed well in 2023 with a semifinal in Miami and a quarterfinal at the US Open as their highlights.

(13)Kato-Sutjiadi
This was a solid duo in 2023 to the tune of a 34-23 record with two titles and an appearance in the Elite Trophy final. They have found defeat twice in 2024 in their prep matches, both coming in super tie breaks. They draw Alexandrova-Kalinskaya in round one. That’s an inexperienced tandem that owns just three matches together. The Russians have been tough though as shown by their super tie break loss to Kichenok-Ostapenko 13-11 in Brisbane this year. They look like they could have a shot to make this a very difficult match.

(14)Mattek-Sands/Wang
An awful draw for this duo as they get the French Connection, Garcia-Mladenovic, in round one. Yes that same French Connection that has won the French Open doubles tites twice together and come in off a final in Adelaide. Their teams ups may have dwindled from the height of their success in 2016, but every time they play, they are dangerous and a danger to win a title. Considering this is the first match together for BMS and Wang, they’re probably going to be underdogs to survive.

(15)Martins-Niculescu
While both these ladies are solid doubles players, it’s also a first time pairing that is debuting against a pair of veteran doubles types in Errani-Paolini. The Italians were 8-2 in limited action last year, but successful across the board with two semifinals on clay and a hard court title in Monastir. They have Olympic experience and made a final at one of the Melbourne tournaments back in 2022. Going against a team that has to find their way with each other, the Italians certainly look the part of a duo that can score the upset.

(16)Hozumi-Ninomiya
The 16th seeds are experienced, but just 1-3 all-time at Grand Slams. They’ll face Americans Chang-Parks to start and it could be a bit of trouble. Those two have not played much together, just 2-2, but they did find a spark in their Grand Slam debut last year in New York. They made the third round with a win over Chan-Olmos, who have had some very good results on hard courts. The seeds have an edge having played two prep tournaments, but if Chang-Parks bring the toughness they had in New York, then this turns into a good one.

DRAW PREVIEW

QUARTER ONE

The seeds really stack this quarter up with talent that has the ability to get through to a semifinal. Starting with the top half and the top seeds in Gauff-Pegula, The American Dynamic Duo has a nice path early on that should afford them a spot at least in the round of 16. The intrigue for me in this half lies with that opener featuring (14)Mattek-Sands/Wang against Garcia-Mladenovic. As good as both BMS and Wang are in doubles, BMS has nine Grand Slam doubles titles and Wang with one after last year’s French Open triumph with Su-wei Hsieh, will they a rapport good enough to beat the French Connection? Garcia-Mladenovic have only made it as far as the semis in three prior trips to Melbourne, but this is about round one. This is certainly a match that should be a highlight of your early viewing. The survivor will have the inside track to facing Gauff-Pegula, but don’t sleep on whomever advances between Babos-Bondarenko and Morat-Murray. Morat-Murray pushed Garcia-Mladnovic in a super tie break loss in Adelaide and Babos-Bondarenko won a clay title at the iTF level last year, but did look overmatched at the US Open in their Grand Slam debut versus Azarenka-Haddad Maia.

In the bottom half, (7)Melichar-Martinez/Perez have plenty of experience at Slams, but not success in 2023. The 7th seeds were ousted in round two here in their debut last year and went one and done at both Wimbledon and the US Open. They didn’t have an ideal start to the season with a loss in their lone prep match, so this could be an iffy spot. Wu-Zhu present a stumbling block to start with the pair having played both Wimbledon and the US Open last year together. They went 3-2 combined and showed a good competitive streak in an early losss in Brisbane. This one could be tighter than some think. The other seeds, Kichenok-Ostapenko face a team that has seen them twice and been competitive in two losses in Linette-Pera. Kichenok-Ostapenko did start well to the tune of a 6-1 record in Aussie prep matches, but this figures to be a feisty one. This is a section where you would not be surprised to see both seeds squeak through nor should you be stunned if both get upset.

For me, I think this one comes down to who comes out of that top half. Gauff-Pegula have already shown they can be very good at Grand Slams without compromising their singles play. I’d lean towards them being the ones to get through here, but do believe that some instant chemistry from BMS-Wang or the experience of Garcia-Mladenovic will be in the mix as well. Kichenok-Ostapenko are the seeded “wild card” to me here. They obviously are in good form coming in, but that first match is a real key against a famiiar foe.

QUARTER TWO

(4)Dabrowski-Routliffe lead the quarter and have a decent draw, but one that still has a few potential road blocks. The 2023 US Open champions have played all 27 of their career matches together on hard courts, going 19-8. They lost their 2024 opener, but should be fine in round one. Round two will be the trouble spot if there is one with both Potapova-Sizikova and Kudermetova-Pavlyuchenkova very capable of scoring the upset. (16)Hozumi-Ninomiya I have on upset watch in round one against Chang-Parks, but like Dabrowski-Routliffe, even survival from round one doesn’t mean it gets easier. Round two could pit them against a team that could emerge as a sleeper in this section in Guo-Jiang. They already announced their presence in 2024 by making the Hobart final. And last season, they went 28-5 on hard courts with four titles. Oh and they beat Hozumi-Ninomiya for one of those in Guangzhou. This team could be a MENACE.

In the other half, one of 2024’s new teams is on fire upon arrival in (8)Townsend-Haddad Maia. They won their first tournament together in Adelaide, with the championship win over Garcia-Mladenovic. Bia made the Aussie finals two years ago with Anna Danilinna as her partner, while Townsend has played in two Slam finals, the French Open last year and the US Open in 2022. Their path forward looks workable, although I think Blinkova-Sasnovich could make for a rougher second round. The other seeds, (12)Bouzkova-Sorribes Tormo have proven a tough out in limited action. They went 12-3 in 2023 with a quarterfinal run at the French Open and semifinal showing at Wimbledon. I like their draw, but Collins-Kichenok is an unseeded team to monitor if they advance. I do expect one of the seeds to get the quarterfinal spot out of this half with Towsend-Haddad Maia my favorites to do so.

While there are strong seeds in this section, there are also plenty of unseeded danger duos that could turn this quarter upside down. Guo-Jiang are the ones I especially will be looking at to see if they can match the upper echelon teams if they advance. I’m not sure it will hold, but a Dabrowski-Routliffe versus Townsend-Haddad Maia quarterfinal would be outstanding.

QUARTER THREE

There will be plenty of eyes on this part of the draw to see if the former Czech super stars meet in the quarterfinals with their new partners. Barbora Krejcikova and Laura Siegemund looked like a good match in Adelaide, while Katerina Siniakova and Storm Hunter have been nothing but winners in previous tournaments (7-1). Let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves first as we look to the half with (3)Hunter-Siniakova first. An interesting pairing to look at is the all-Aussie combo of Aiava-Inglis who smoked the Australian ITF circuit last year for a 15-3 record. Can they win at a higher level against better teams? That is the question. (13)Kato-Sutjiadi are the other seeds in this half. They’re a duo that has stepped it up to be very competitive on this surface against the best of the best, but often have fallen just short of victory in those instances. That said, their draw is set up to where they have a good shot to make round three at minimum. Do keep eyes on another all-Aussie duo in McPhee-Sharma in this section, but like Aiava-Inglis, most of their wins have been against lower tier competition at the ITF level.

To the (5)Krejcikova-Siegemund half where the 5th seeds and (10)Chan-Olmos look to be on a collision course. This half is littered with first time pairings, so it will be interesting to see if any of them happen to get hot and surprise anyone. Chan-Olmos should not be looked past, but most of their title runs in their brief time together have not come against the cream of the crop. In Krejcikova-Siegemund, they would be up against a duo that I think is in that category despite their inexperience together. They’ve shown good chemistry early and the pedigrees of both in doubles is outstanding. I feel like if there i a team that is going to keep us from seeing the former Czechs square off for a spot in the semifinals, it’s Chan-Olmos. It normally doesn’t seem to work out though when we get hyped for these kind of clashes between former partners, so I’m not going to be surprised if the expectations fall short of getting what most doubles fans would want out of his quarter.

This biggest shocker in this quarter for me would be seeing an unseeded team come through for a spot in the final four. I think this one will go to one of the seeds with maybe a little home cooking for world number one and Australia’s own Storm Hunter and Siniakova as the choice.

QUARTER FOUR

(2)Hsieh-Mertens reunite to highlight this final quarter. The two seeds had not played together since 2021 before their 2024 opening loss in Brisbane. They did not look great, but obviously know their way around Slams after having won the Wimbledon titles in 2021. Their starter against Minnen-Wickmayer might be a bit of a battle with the Belgians having good experience together, but they’re void of any truly meaningful wins in their work together. With Hsieh’s singles career finished, the six-time Slam doubles champ will certainly be hyper focused now on doubles. I think knowing the Australian Open was her last singles competition and looking forward to qualifying may have taken slightly from her focus when they started in doubles, so I’m expecting them to improve and grab an early win. They’re certainly set up for success in this half where unseeded Italians Errani-Paolini may wind up being their biggest threat. The 15 seeds, Gamarra-Niculescu, are veterans of the doubles courts, but it’s their first time playing together. Getting a duo like Errani-Paolin first up is rough.

The other half of this quarter is difficult to call with both seeds being first time pair ups as well. (6)Krawczyk-Shibahara and (9)Schuurs-Stefani have to hit the ground running with no matches together. The six seeds have the harder opener for me with Khromacheva-Kolodziejova looked like they could be a threat. They split two matches to start the year, taking Chan-Olmos to a super tie break in Hobart. If the six seeds struggle to compliment each other, an upset could be in the cards. Schuurs-Stefani should theoretically have a better time against the singles pairing of Cirstea-Vekic. Danillina-Hruncakova are the unseeded peril for the seeds in this section. They’ve played seven career matches together with seven wins. That includes a title this season in Auckland. They will be another of those second round landmines I’ve talked about for seeds to be weary of in Melbourne.

This quarter isn’t easy to call. Certainly the Hsieh-Mertens combination is one that sticks out, but is the magic still there? I think their draw affords them a little time to work out the kinks, but Errani-Paolini will be there to scoop up a spot if they don’t. With an unseeded team crashing the semifinals here three straight years, this is a quarter that kind of gives a bit of that vibe to me with some names you wouldn’t necessarily look to in the last four of a major.

THE PIG’S DRAW PROJECTION

Q1 QF: (1)Gauff-Pegula v (11)Kichenok-Ostapenko
Q2 QF: Guo-Jiang v (8)Townsed-Haddad Maia
Q3 QF: (10)Chan-Olmos v (3)Hunter-Siniakova
Q4 QF: Danillina-Hruncakova v Errani-Paolini

PIG PIX

Townsend-Haddad Maia
Hunter-Siniakova

Catch me on “X” @tennispig any time to talk doubles and yes, I’ll still give a singles opinion when you ask. Look for PIGPIX posted daily and let’s get people to #WatchMoreDoubles in 2024!