ATP Australian Open Preview

AUSTRALIAN OPEN: NOTABLES & TRENDS

*2023 marked the second straight season that an all-Aussie unseeded pair surprised to win the titles. Rinky Hijikata and Jason Kubler arguably were a much larger shock than the Kokkinakis-Kyrgios pairing in 2022. Last year was also the second straight to see an all-unseeded final in Melbourne. HIjikata-Kubler were slight underdogs in the final against Nys-Zielinski, winning at 2.02 (+102). Dogs have now won two of the last three title matches. One more interesting note on the Aussie final for the men – there has not been a three set finish in the finale since 2016.

*In case you don’t follow doubles much, PUT YOUR EYES ON EVERY ALL-AUSSIE duo in the men’s draw. Six of the last seven men’s doubles tournaments at the Australian Open have featured AT LEAST one all-Aussie duo in the quarterfinals with three of those runs seeing multiple all-Aussie teams in the last right. I’ll single out this year’s Aussie tandems a little later.

*One of the things the all-Aussie duos also show is the big number of unseeded teams who make deep runs in Melbourne. Last year, four of the eight quarterfinalists were not seeded and three of those teams advanced to the semifinals. In all, there have been multiple unseeded semifinalists in seven of the last nine runs in Melbourne. 2021 marked the only time since 2007 that the last four teams standing were all seeded. Incidentally, 2007 was the last time that seeds one through four ALL made the semifinals.

*In case you didn’t get the jist from that last paragraph, there are going to be surprises. Check out how seeds have fared over the last five years at the Australian Open. You’ll see that least four seeded teams have gone one and done in four of those runs and a top five seed has been eliminated in round one three times! The glaring thing to me in this chart – a top four seed has not been in the final for a while. 2017 to be exact when (4)Kontinen-Peers beat the (3)Bryans in the final. THERE WILL BE SURPRISES.

*Underdogs won 19 of the 63 matches at last year’s Australian Open. Only five came in the opening round with two of those via seeds being upset. The best bite came in round two where six of the 16 matches went the way of the dog. That 19 was the exact number of dog hits in 2022 with 16 underdog scores in 2021. If you’re looking for the underdog wins, rounds one and two are a great place to start, especially if you track who the seeds are playing. If you look at the last five years, nearly half the seeds or more are gone after two rounds.

*Of the 63 matches in 2023, 22 of them went the distance (three sets). That was the highest number since 24 three setters in 2020. The majority of those seem to come earlier in rounds one and two as you’d expect with the greater number of matches taking place.

SINGLES MINGLE

As with most Grand Slams, you’ll see more singles players venturing into the doubles mix, albeit you’re still not going to see many of the guys in the top 50 involved. For me, that’s a good thing because withdrawals can plague a doubles draw the farher a singles player advances in the singles draw.

For 2024, here are some intriguing singles pairings to monitor:

Eubanks-Shelton
While I do enjoy this duo, they’ve already had one withdrawal in the Aussie summer. With Shelton now looked upon as a guy who could routinely get through to quarterfinals at Slams, that puts a little bit of a red flag on this team. Still, they can be formidable duo to the booming serves of both players, so at least early on, they could be worth a look depending on matchups.

Kecmanovic-Safiullin
This could be an intriguing pair. Kecmanovic was set to pair with Borna Gojo, but he withdrew. So instead this will be another first time team up of singles guys who aren’t half bad when they play doubles. Kecmanovic has the better prowess and experience. He played 20 doubles matches in 2023, going 11-9. He made the Estoril final on clay alongside Nikola Cacic and won the Los Cabos dubs titles back in 2022 with William Blumberg. As for Safiullin, while his star has been shining bright in singles, he has played a bit over the course of the last few seasons with some reasonable success. The standout being his 2022 performance with Daniil Medvedev at the ATP Cup where the Russian pair won three of four matches played.

McDonald-van De Zandschulp
This is another intriguing pair for me. They’ve paired up for ten career matches, going 6-4. To show their ability, look no further than 2022 when they first teamed up. They played four tournaments, including Wimbledon. In that mix, they beat Mektic-Pavic, lost a tight two set affair to Bopanna-Shapovalov who were a very good tandem, and took Peers-Polasek to five sets at Wimbledon. That’s the same Peers-Polasek pair that made the US Open semifinals in 2021 and quarterfinals at both the Aussie Open and Wimbledon in 2022. These guys can go against anyone.

AUSSIE AUSSIE AUSSIE DUOS TO WATCH

I mentioned the unexpected success of all-Aussie duos in the men’s draw in recent times, so let’s focus on several that could have an impact and perhaps make a deep run.

Purcell-Thompson
These guys are an easy standout selection amongst the all-Aussies due to experience both in general on the doubles courts and together as a team. They already scored three nice wins in Brisbane early this season before withdrawing in the semifinals and narrowly lost out to eventual runners-up Nys-Zielinski last year in a round two, third set tie break (9-7). They also won the titles on clay in Houston last year, made the finals in Atlanta and the round of 16 at Wimbledon. They’re very good.

Kokkinakis-Popyrin
This isn’t the childhood chemistry of Kokkinakis-Kyrgios, but it could be a compelling combo. Without Kyrgios playing in 2023, Kokkinakis did not dabble in doubles much with just a 2-4 mark. He was very competitive at the two Slams he did play; the French Open with Jan-Lennard Struff and the US Open with Tailon Griekspoor. With Struff, he lost a three setter against Bolelli-Fognini, while the Griekspoor-Kokkinakis pairing won a couple of rounds in New York. Popyrin is the question mark. Last year he went all-Aussie with Marc Polmans and won a match in Melbourne before losing in round two in three sets to Ram-Salisbury. He did have a nice run on grass with Alexsandr Vukic at the Surbiton Challenger in making the final. The serves are the weapons here for sure and will likely be the make or break point for this duo.

Duckworth-Polmans
These two don’t team up much, but when they do it’s at the Australian Open. This will be their fourth time playing the main draw. They haven’t matched their inaugural run in 2020 when they made the quarterfinals, but they have still flashed some dangerous intentions since then. Unfortunately they have a rough draw again this year with (2)Bopanna-Ebden as their opener, but I’d still keep eyes on them in this early portion of the year.

Bolt-Saville
Another all-Aussie wild card duo and one that has already had some matches together in 2024. They went 0-2 in the Aussie prep tournaments, but they showed some nice chemistry last year when they combined for a 7-3 record in limited action. That included a couple wins in Melbourne, one over Mektic-Pavic. They also won a title at the Shanghai Challenger in the Fall, so they’re legit. They’re in a tough section of the draw, but Aussie magic often knows no limits at this tournament.

Schoolkate-Walton
Dipping back into the wild card pool, this is a pairing of young guys that won a Challenger doubles title together last year and also made another final. This will be their Aussie debut, so the question is going to be whether the moment is too big or not.

Harris-Ellis
The combination COULD BE deadly. Both Andrew Harris and Blake Ellis played a lot of doubles in 2023 and Harris in particular has proven to be a valuable partner. He’s played the Aussie Open once before in 2022 with Vukic, narrowly losing that debut in double tie breaks against Krajicek-Querry. Harris looked pretty fluid last week in a last minute team up with Harri Heliovaara in Adelaide, so there’s reason to believe he can bring out the best in EIlis. Harris was in eight Challenger finals in 2023 along with his debut ATP final paired with Dominik Koepfer in Los Cabos. I’ll be watching for these guys early to see if they gel.

SEEDS: ONE AND DONE WATCH (First Match Upset Watch)

(1)Dodig-Krajicek
The top seeds were forced out of Adelaide after a narrow victory in round one last week. I couldn’t find information on what forced the withdrawal and it was likely a precautionary type of thing, but they do match up with Kecmanovic-Safiullin first. That’s a team they won’t know what to expect from and that can sometimes be dangerous. If there’s chemistry between those two singles guys, it could be a tougher than expected round one.

(2)Bopanna-Ebden
What? Yes. While this team grew in confidence in 2023 obviously by making the Tour Finals, don’t forget that they crashed and burned at both the Australian Open and French Open in round one. They get one of the Aussie wild cards in Duckworth-Polmans to start. Bopanna-Ebden looked solid in Adelaide, but could there be any hangover after another tough finals defeat? They did a nice job in 2023 of bouncing back from disappointment, but they also did not have to do it quickly as they will in this spot. I think they likely win, but it’s one that could be interesting if the Aussies get out to an early lead.

(5)Gonzalez-Skupski
This one screams out a potential struggle with Gonzalez-Skupski only having one match together in their new partnership. It was a tight loss in Adelaide that featured two tie break sets and a super breaker in their loss to Frantzen-Jebens, but that’s a duo better suited to clay. Getting McDonald-van De Zandschulp first is scary, a team that I outlined a bit earlier in the Singles Mingle section.

(9)Murray-Venus
A tough draw against Behar-Pavlasek puts the nine seeds on this list for me. Murray-Venus had a solid season in 2023, going 45-24 in their first full season together. They did make a quarterfinal at Wimbledon, but lost in the second round at both hard court Grand Slams. Behar-Pavlasek have already shown well to start 2024 with a semifinal finish in Hong Kong and this is a team that surprised with a quarterfinal at Wimbledon that included a win over the Grass Gods Mektic-Pavic. They’re tricky. They’re experienced and I think this will be a great battle.

(11)Glasspool-Rojer
While this new pair for 2024 was red hot to start with a title in Brisbane, they stumbled in round one in Adelaide the following week. That shows that things are also a work-in-progress for new team ups. They go against what could be a formidable duo in Griekspoor-Stevens. The Dutch duo brings prior experience to the table, going 5-6 last year. Three of those wins came in their surprise quarterfinal run at Wimbledon that included a win over Ram-Salisbury. That alone should have the 11 seeds on alert to open. This team can win.

(14)Koolhof-Mektic
The Auckland champs showed a knack for winning tight matches as they rekindled their 2020 partnership to start the year. They won all four matches in New Zealand in super tie breaks en route to the titles. And low and behold they’ll get a repeat of their Auckland semifinal against Doumbia-Reboul in round one. Doumbia-Reboul may do their best on clay, but they’ve grown much more consistent on hard courts in the last two years. They won a title in Chengdu last Fall and had a nice scalp of Koolhof-Skupski in Shanghai the following week in a semifinal run. I say it a lot, but it is very tough to beat the same opponent two straight weeks when they’re fairly evenly matched.

DRAW PREVIEW

QUARTER ONE

The top half here is led by (1)Dodig-Krajicek with French vets (13)Mahut-ERV as the opposite seed. Dodig-Krajicek as mentioned earlier will be facing an interesting singles pairing in Kecmanovic-Safiullin to start. I don’t know the status of the top seeds after their withdrawal last week in Adelaide, but it’s eerily similar to 2023 when they pulled out of the Adelaide final and then got beat in round one at the Aussie Open debut. The top seeds have also had an odd go at Grand Slams in their time together since 2022. The French Open has seen them win their lone Slam title together in 2023 and another final in 2022, but in the other five Slams they’ve played, they’ve failed to get past round two. If healthy, you’d surely expect them to survive, but that’s the question and I think round one could be a tougher battle as a result. Watch McLachlan-Nishioka as a potential round two opponent. They’ve played reasonably well together with four Slam matches in 2023. Their three losses last year were to Arevalo-Rojer (2x) and Ram-Salisbury. There’s no shame in that, but it also means if they meet Dodig-Krajicek that’s probably the end of the road.

Mahut-ERV last played a somewhat regular schedule together in 2022, amassing a 19-12 record. They made the Wimbledon quarterfinals that year, but also lost in round one of the US Open. Since then, they’ve played just five matches with a 1-4 mark combined. That includes a loss in their Adelaide debut in 2024. They do have a workable early draw though, starting with a team in Cerundolo-Etcheverry that they swept out in round one at Wimbledon in 2022. The bigger trouble likely awaits in round two with the survivor between Arneodo-Weissborn and Bolelli-Vavassori. Bolelli-Vavassori showed some good chemistry last year by making the Halle final on grass and the Umag final on clay. They went 1-2 at Slams. Their Austrian opponents were solid in Aussie prep matches, going 2-2 with losses to Lammons-Withrow and Granollers-Zeballos. It’s a 50-50 call, but regardless, I do think the survivor will be a stiff test for the 13th seeds in round two.

To the bottom half, where it’s (8)Krawietz-Puetz and (10)Arevalo-Pavic as the seeds. The 8th seeded Germans made the final in Brisbane, losing in a super tie break to Glasspool-Rojer. They struggled on outdoor hard courts last year at just 5-6, but most of those losses came against the upper echelon of teams. I like their set up in this section to win a few rounds with a pair of singles pairings opposite in this quadrant. I think the Germans get past Giron-Kwon and then whether it’s Baez-Wild or Bellier-Ofner, I don’t see them losing in that spot. Is it a collision course with Arevalo-Pavic in the round of 16? It certainly looks promising to get that spicy matchup. The 10th seeds stormed out of the gates with titles in Hong Kong before a tough loss to to start Auckland the following week. Frantzen-Jebens are a competent team in round one, but one that did its best stuff in 2023 on clay and indoor hard courts. I would not be surprised to see a tight match, but Arevalo-Pavic should prevail. Much like the Krawietz-Puetz set up, I don’t see a big problem with them in round two.

I don’t see this quarter springing one of the surprise teams that we’ve seen often in Melbourne – at least not as far as a semifinal contender. I do think with the questions around Dodig-Krajicek that perhaps there is a spot for an unseeded quarterfinal runner in this section. That’s the needed early loss to open things up and then you’ve got the likes of Kecmanovic-Safiullin, McLachlan-Nishioka and the survivor between Arneodo-Weissborn and Bolelli-Vavassori as the potential clean up crews. I think Arevalo-Pavic are the X-factors for me. They’ve both won Grand Slams, so if their chemistry continues to grow, the sky is the limit.

QUARTER TWO

The defending champs are in the top half here with (16)Hijikata-Kubler likely very low on most people’s lists to be in the championship mix again. The Aussies certainly caught lightning-in-a-bottle last year, but struggled for wins after that magical run. The team to key on in their little quadrant for me is the big hitting/serving American duo of Eubanks-Shelton. They had a nice Summer in 2023 with wins in Cincinnati over Bopanna-Ebden and Gille-Vliegen. They also gave Koolhof-Skupski all they wanted in a 7-5, 7-6 loss in round one at the US Open. They can keep pace with anyone and their match with the Germans Hanfmann-Koepfer might be a lot of fun. The Germans paired up for seven matches back in 2021 and had a good, competitive streak. If Eubanks-Shelton aren’t ready, they could lose. Hijikata-Kubler should beat Djere-O’Connell who have only played together once, but I guess anything is possible since they haven’t been winning consistently at all in limited play. As with the other seeds so far, round two could be the trouble spot. Hijikata-Kubler will be interesting to watch to see if they feel pressure this year after winning. That could easily derail them early.

The other portion of this top half houses (4)Granollers-Zeballos. They’ve made back-to-back semifinals, but are positioned in a tougher part of the draw. King-Stalder were Challenger royalty in 2023 with seven titles. The question obviously is how they match up against the top tier at the ATP level. Granollers-Zeballos looked strong in Auckland, so I’m expecting they will get past the Americans. Round two will be the spot to watch with Kokkinakis-Popyrin or Mies-Smith waiting. Granollers-Zeballos have been knocked out by both of the magical all-Aussie teams the last two seasons, could Kokkinakis-Popyrin be the next one? It’s their first match together, so it’s going to be tough against Mies-Smith who looked solid in the Aussie prep tournaments going 3-2. That included a win over Hijikata-Kubler. I definitely think the winner of this one is a sleeper right away in this section a big danger to the 6th seeds in round two. This quarter really has the feel of the one where surprises will happen.

To the bottom half then where last year’s runners-up, (7)Nys-Zielinski, lead the way along with (11)Glasspool-Rojer. Nys-Zielinkski made the semifinals in Auckland, but got two walkover wins along the way. They still looked good debuting against Ram-Salisbury, losing 10-6 in the super tie break. They have Aussies McCabe-Sweeny up first and I touched on them earlier. They have some experience, but not together. That’s also how Hijikata-Kubler started, so don’t necessarily sleep on them. That said, it will take something special from them to pull off an upset. The danger for me again is in round two where another all-Aussie duo with a much better profile shoud be waiting. That’s Purcell-Thompson. They do have a good test in round one against Erler-Miedler who beat Bopanna-Ebden in their debut last year here, so they should not be overlooked. The Austrians won the titles in Acapulco last year with wins over Murray-Venus, Koolhof-Skupski and Lammons-Withrow. They can go although I think they thrive better in slightly slower conditions. Expect a good fight in that round on clashe either way with the survivor capable of pulling off a round two upset.

Glasspool-Rojer have a tough opener against Dutch duo Griekspoor-Stevens. Glasspool-Rojer got the hot start with a title run in Brisbane, but were one and done the week after in Adelaide. There’s still a learning curve for this new duo, so they should be on upset watch in round one. Watch out for Goransson-Olivetti against the Aussies Ellis-Harris opposite of this one. That could be a real banger. Goransson-Olivetti made the Canberra Challenger final early this year in their first tournament together, so there is good chemistry. Ellis-Harris haven’t played together since Adelaide a year ago, but they nearly knocked off Cabal-Farah in that tournament. This is the all-Aussie team that kind of carries that “vibe” to me of one that can be a deep runner. The crowd will obviously be pushing for all Aussies and that will only help aid their cause. I like Glasspool-Rojer as a pair, but boy oh boy, I do not like this draw for them. I’m expecting chaos here and look at the all-Aussies or all-Dutch as teams that could push for a surprise quarterfinal.

(4)Granollers-Zeballos are the experience and talent in this section for me, but this quarter is littered with some of the more dangerous unseeded teams in the tournament in my opinion. The Aussies pairs. Mies-Smith. Maybe Eubanks-Shelton and Griekspoor-Stevens all look very capable of doing damage

QUARTER THREE

The lead half here starts with (3)Ram-Salisbury who square off against Melo-Middelkoop to open. I didn’t have that on the upset watch list, but it could be a tricky opener. Still, Ram-Salisbury looked solid in winning the Adelaide titles and have made at least the third round in all five previous runs in Melbourne. They were the champs in 2020 and finalists in 2021, so this isn’t a stop where they can’t win. We may well see – stop me if you’ve heard this before – another tough second round matchup for a seed. It coud be the Tsitsi-bros with Stefanos and Petros opposite of Ram-Salisbury in a winnable match. The Greeks broke through last Fall in winning the Antwerp titles, so they no longer carry that feeling of being a tough out that almost always fails. They got their first Slam win together here last year and nearly stunned Koolhof-Skupski in round two. Ram-Salisbury should be ready for a similar test. The other portion of this half sees Gille-Vliegen as the seeds. The Belgians have lost their openers in Melbourne each of the last three runs. They look much better suited to breaking that streak with Machac-Zhang up first. Chandrasekar-Prasanth are an interesting duo who could be up for the Belgians in round two. The wildcard entries had plenty of Challenger success on hard courts last year and have shown tough in the few ATP level events they played. With Gille-Vliegen not being a stout team on this surface, there is a chance I think that match could get a little iffy for the seeds if things fall that way.

To the other half where newly formed duo (5)Gonzalez-Skupski will be looking to get in more matches to try and grow their partnership. That may not happen here with the singles pairing of McDonald-van De Zandschulp likely to push them in round one. If the 5th seeds can escape, then things do seem to open up for them a bit. Cabral-Patten is a team to keep an eye on. They had some nice results when they first formed their team last Fall and were competitive against quality teams in both losses in Aussie prep matches. They could be a sleeper team in this section for a few rounds and might be worth a look in that dangerous round two slot again where seeds have tougher matchups. The bottom part of this half looks wide open with Murray-Venus as the seeds. They too may not escape round one with Behar-Pavlasek as a very handy team that has proven they can win on the big stage. The Bhambri-Haase versus Barrientos-Matos round one match in this quadrant might be one of the best openers on the schedule that no one will care about. Bhambri-Haase looked good in the prep tournaments with a win over Lammons-Withrow and super tie break losses to that same duo and Glasspool-Rojer. Barrientos-Matos might be better on clay eventually, but they did take a set off Bopanna-Ebden in Adelaide last week and beat Mahut-ERV. Either of those teams will be in the mix for a round of 16 berth.

You can’t say that any seeds necessarily have a good path in this section. There are plenty of those unseeded floater teams here that can cause the upset. I can see some of the seeds sneaking through still, but the one I don’t fancy is Murray-Venus. Tough opener. Maybe even a tougher second rounder if they survive. Gonzalez-Skupski are the sleeper seeds, if that’s a thing. They don’t have much work together yet, so it’s hard to know exactly what we’re getting. They look very boom or bust in this draw. Ram-Salisbury would probably be the safest pick amongst the seeds, but not without some tests waiting. Behar-Pavlasek and Cabral-Patten are the two unseeded teams I am eager to watch and the Barrientos-Matos/Bhambri-Haase winner is going to be equally tough in this section.

QUARTER FOUR

The final quarter is highlighted by (2)Bopanna-Ebden who have already started the season well with a run to the Adelaide final last week. They’ll be keen to make up for an early exit last season in this spot. There could be a bit of a challenge from Aussie wild cards Duckworth-Polmans. They know what to expect on these courts and will surely get whatever crowd is watching on their side. It’s an important start for the two seeds to come out strong and not show any lingering effects from another tough finals’ loss. If they get past this test, then things open up some for them where they definitely look like quarterfinal favorites at worst.

The other seeds in the opening half are Koolhof-Mektic. The 14th seeds will be looking to better their result from 2020 when they first came here together. They lost in round two to Duckworth-Polmans. Here, round one sounds the alarm with Doumbia-Reboul. This is a quality duo that likely puts up a good fight in round one. Koolhof-Mektic walked the tight rope with their Auckland win with all the super tie breaks needed. In a best of three setting, perhaps the even nature of their encounters might go against them a bit in tight matches? Heliovaara-Peers are the intriguing unseeded pair near here. They lost to Dimitrov and Korda in their first match of the year in Brisbane. Peers picked up an ankle issue that caused him to sit out last week, while Harri paired up with a different Aussie to stay fit in Adelaide. Heliovaara-Peers sound very much a slow work-in-progress if you follow Harri’s blog. It likely didn’t help to not have Peers training with him as they still try to figure out how best to mesh their styles of play. Bolt-Saville are savvy and certainly can take them out, if they’re unable to get things ironed out.

In the other half of this quarter, it’s (6)Gonzalez-Moltenti and (12)Lammons-Withrow. Both were bounced last year in round one with tough matchups. This time around, on paper at least, both have openers that look like a better shot to score a win. The six seeds should like their chances of pushing into the round of 16. Escobar-Nedovyesov are the vets to keep eyes on. They made the semifinals in Adelaide last week and look like a combo that could trouble Gonzalez-Molteni if things hold to get to that match. Gonzalez-Molteni made two Slam quarterfinals in 2023, so the big match setting doesn’t bother them. I’d be a bit surprised if they don’t position themselves for a shot at a third quarterfinal.

The question is who might they face from the other part of this section. Lammons-Withrow have a winnable opener and they looked in form over the course of the first two tournaments this year that saw them go 2-2. They were especially good winning tie breaks, going 5-1 with a 2-0 record in matches that went the distance. I think round two is going to be the challenge for them early with Cash-Galloway being my pick to get that spot out of round one. These two continue to look dangerous as their chemistry grows. They first formed late in 2023, going 12-4, and they went 2-2 in prep matches in 2024. That included quality wins over Doumbia-Reboul and Arevalo-Pavic. Their two losses were very close matches, so I think they can wreak some havoc in this part with Lammons-Withrow generally playing very tight matches. Lammons-Withrow beat them 7-6, 6-4 in their lone career meeting last Summer in Atlanta.

There are a few unseeded duos down in this part of the draw that could be surprise quarterfinal runners at-minimum. Doumbia-Reboul, Bolt-Saville, Cash-Galloway and Escobar-Nedovyesov all won’t go away quietly. Bopanna-Ebden are the class and consistency in this quarter, they just need to avoid trouble in round one and I think they’ll have a great chance at being involved in the latter stages of this tournament.

THE PIG’S DRAW PROJECTION

Q1 QF: (1)Dodig-Krajicek v (10)Arevalo-Pavic
Q2 QF: Kokkinakis-Popyrin v Ellis-Harris
Q3 QF: Bhambri-Haase v (3)Ram-Salisbury
Q4 QF: (6)Gonzalez-Molteni v (2)Bopanna-Ebden

PIG PIX

Bopanna-Ebden
Arevalo-Pavic
Ellis-Harris

Catch me on “X” @tennispig any time to talk doubles and yes, I’ll still give a singles opinion when you ask. Look for PIGPIX posted daily and let’s get people to #WatchMoreDoubles in 2024!

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